Kosy123
Senior Member
Downtown Attainable Housing Incentive passed council earlier today, so let's get those cranes going 
|
|
|
- Thread starter Daveography
- Start date
Barnaby
Senior Member
Donya has horrible hours. I live DT and haven't had a chance to make it yet because of this.
David A
Senior Member
The hours probably have something to do with how busy or not it it particularly on the weekend, as they have to pay for staff to be there when open.
I know there are people who live in buildings near by, but on the weekend it sometimes looks like a ghost town around here. It would be nice if some of them got out and did more, staying at home all the time is so 2021.
I know there are people who live in buildings near by, but on the weekend it sometimes looks like a ghost town around here. It would be nice if some of them got out and did more, staying at home all the time is so 2021.
Gronk!
Senior Member
Your best bet is to go during the weekdays around 30 min before the lunch hour. There's usually a humongous line-up during the noon hour.
Kosy123
Senior Member
Did some math since I had some time, and I got inspired after I saw that the Attainable Housing Incentive now stated that the city's goal was 19,000 residents by 2030 for downtown.
According to the 2021 census, downtown had 13,000 residents (This isn't counting for the higher vacancy rate at the time as well)
If we add in the big chunk of the openings from 2025, with 1132 units, with the assumption of 100% lease rates and the x1.58 calculation, downtown gets pushed to approximately
14,788 residents.
I'm using a x1.58 calculation on the units based on a graphic from Calgary's Downtown Office Conversions and how they calculated their estimated residents.
If we add in all the projects under construction, actively in the development permit stage, and the Warehouse Block by Autograph (which we know is going to happen), with the same assumptions once completed then downtown's residential population gets pushed to 20,092 residents.
Obviously, the math here isn't precise, and doesn't take into account vacancy rates, and a ton of other factors like projects I probably missed out pre-2025 like Augustana, but it's cool to see that the 19,000 residents by 2030 goal is within reach, and if we somehow get more momentum and projects in the next few years, then even the 24,000 goal originally put forward is also doable.
Note: I excluded the Ice Village's Phase I since it technically is outside of the designated municipal boundaries of downtown. BLVD on 108 St is also missing since we haven't seen anything there for a little bit, so I've removed it from here for the time being, along with the Standard on Jasper conversion.
According to the 2021 census, downtown had 13,000 residents (This isn't counting for the higher vacancy rate at the time as well)
If we add in the big chunk of the openings from 2025, with 1132 units, with the assumption of 100% lease rates and the x1.58 calculation, downtown gets pushed to approximately
14,788 residents.
I'm using a x1.58 calculation on the units based on a graphic from Calgary's Downtown Office Conversions and how they calculated their estimated residents.
If we add in all the projects under construction, actively in the development permit stage, and the Warehouse Block by Autograph (which we know is going to happen), with the same assumptions once completed then downtown's residential population gets pushed to 20,092 residents.
Obviously, the math here isn't precise, and doesn't take into account vacancy rates, and a ton of other factors like projects I probably missed out pre-2025 like Augustana, but it's cool to see that the 19,000 residents by 2030 goal is within reach, and if we somehow get more momentum and projects in the next few years, then even the 24,000 goal originally put forward is also doable.
Note: I excluded the Ice Village's Phase I since it technically is outside of the designated municipal boundaries of downtown. BLVD on 108 St is also missing since we haven't seen anything there for a little bit, so I've removed it from here for the time being, along with the Standard on Jasper conversion.
Attachments
IanO
Superstar
It's closer to 1.3 I believe, but hey, let's be optimistic.
IanO
Superstar
Still the same.
MacLac
Senior Member
Ian, I thought we ALL agreed that no complaining until AFTER Easter Sunday….then allow the city at least 2 weeks to show results of cleaning DT
Kosy123
Senior Member
Based on what Ian said, I did some more math on x1.3, and also x1.7 for funsies, and got these numbers out.
| Number of Units | x1.3 calculation (Realistic) | x1.58 calculation (Calgary Office Conversion Graphic) | x1.7 (Wildly optimistic) | |
| Recently Opened: | 1132 units | 14,471 residents | 14,788 residents | 14,924 residents |
| Adding In DP or Construction Stage | 3357 units | 18,835 residents | 20,092 residents | 20,630 residents |
kcantor
Senior Member
I’m pretty sure your either your math or your typing the resulting number of residents is out by an awful lot…
Kosy123
Senior Member
How so? I had the original base number at 13,000 which was the census population in 2021.
First row I just multiplied the number of units opened by the four main projects that opened the last two years which was 1132 (Parks, Switch, Peak and Falcon I) by the multipliers (1.3, 1.58, 1.7) and added the number to the original 13,000.
Second row I just did the same thing, but added that number to the existing first row, which accounted for the 1132 units already added.
Obviously this assumes 100% occupancy and though which isn’t going to be the case.
David A
Senior Member
Likely close to 20,000 residents, which is a good increase from the 13,000 in 2021.
CplKlinger
Senior Member
How many DT residents would we likely need to support a larger commercial base, particularly in off-peak hours, and attract residential-oriented commercial (e.g., a hardware store or an Ikea)? I know people gave a ballpark estimate before but I can't recall what it was.
Ohman
New Member
I am not sure if its as formulaic as that. In 2018 the airport opened a shopping mall in a field with zero population base. The downtown of a Metro region of 1.5 million, a major employment node, with 2 post-secondary's, where all transit lines converge should, on paper, be able to sustain something today, but we know that downtown is plagued with more than just a lack of residents that factor in to its success. So if downtown's population doubled tomorrow, it would still have all the crime, cleanliness, closures, access, parking etc... issues that exist today. More residents would potentially just mean more business for places like Unity Square.
Wihkwetowin is often cited as the city's densest neighbourhood with a population of 18,000+; it also doesn't have many of the downtown issues, yet jasper avenue through this neighbourhood is bombed out, parking lots scattered, and disjointed in its retail offerings.
I would use Wihkwetowin as a litmus test on how an increase in population downtown would impact its commercial base in attracting residential-oriented offerings like a hardware store.
Wihkwetowin is often cited as the city's densest neighbourhood with a population of 18,000+; it also doesn't have many of the downtown issues, yet jasper avenue through this neighbourhood is bombed out, parking lots scattered, and disjointed in its retail offerings.
I would use Wihkwetowin as a litmus test on how an increase in population downtown would impact its commercial base in attracting residential-oriented offerings like a hardware store.
kcantor
Senior Member
Fair enough but your adding the 13,000 - and what that represents - isn't apparent in your table so that's the disconnect...