Did some math since I had some time, and I got inspired after I saw that the Attainable Housing Incentive now stated that the city's goal was 19,000 residents by 2030 for downtown.
According to the 2021 census, downtown had 13,000 residents (This isn't counting for the higher vacancy rate at the time as well)
If we add in the big chunk of the openings from 2025, with 1132 units, with the assumption of 100% lease rates and the x1.58 calculation, downtown gets pushed to approximately
14,788 residents.
I'm using a x1.58 calculation on the units based on a graphic from Calgary's Downtown Office Conversions and how they calculated their estimated residents.
If we add in all the projects under construction, actively in the development permit stage, and the Warehouse Block by Autograph (which we know is going to happen), with the same assumptions once completed then downtown's residential population gets pushed to
20,092 residents.
Obviously, the math here isn't precise, and doesn't take into account vacancy rates, and a ton of other factors like projects I probably missed out pre-2025 like Augustana, but it's cool to see that the 19,000 residents by 2030 goal is within reach, and if we somehow get more momentum and projects in the next few years, then even the 24,000 goal originally put forward is also doable.
Note: I excluded the Ice Village's Phase I since it technically is outside of the designated municipal boundaries of downtown. BLVD on 108 St is also missing since we haven't seen anything there for a little bit, so I've removed it from here for the time being, along with the Standard on Jasper conversion.