[nfitz]

If this project's business case is estimating slower operations that the current buses ...

It doesn't. Where are you getting that?

..., and Line 6 undershot it's business case's projected speeds by 50%,

Also it doesn't. What is your source for that?

Let's keep things accurate. Did some trains on operating day take way too long, yes. Do we complain about Line 2 issues based on big problems during the first months of operations?

 

[jmi22]

the $4 Billion contract given to Crosslinx to maintain the line for 3 years

Goodness gracious that's quite a bill for just three years!

 

[urbanclient]

It doesn't. Where are you getting that?

It's nuanced, not sure how it's hard to believe an 18 km windy route with 7 sharp turns and 27 stops could be potentially slower than bus lines that don't travel this exact route. Also for context, buses regularly do the Line 6 FW route faster than 30 minutes in the late evening. But again, travel time isn't the end all be all. It's the loss of one seat rides to Kennedy etc.

Yeah essentially travel speed was slower than RapidTO (the business as usual scenario), which means that less riders are modeled to use the line/system since it is slower than before and less competitive with other modes. I don't believe bus network changes were coded in.

This is why you make sure your future population forecast considers induced growth from the new MTSAs. This is why you consider travel time reliability and variability differences of LRT vs. curbside bus lanes in your travel demand model. This is why you re-design your project if it isn't achieving its original strategic goals (although not convinced speed was a goal). This is why you do the work to determine what the post-LRT transit network looks like to improve transfers and mitigate slower travel speeds if they do exist.

And btw, for those with keen eyes, there has been some very recent progress on the EELRT file.

 

[JSF-1]

Goodness gracious that's quite a bill for just three years!

Damn I didn't even notice I missed a zero, think I could get a job at Metrolinx?

 

[jmi22]

It doesn't. Where are you getting that?

Page 30, EGLINTON EAST LRT INITIAL BUSINESS CASE https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2022/ex/bgrd/backgroundfile-226595.pdf

Also it doesn't. What is your source for that?

Page 8, Sheppard-Finch LRT Benefits Case https://assets.metrolinx.com/image/...ts/Metrolinx/Benefits_Case-Sheppard-Finch.pdf

22kph over 10.3km = 28 minutes

Opening day runtime: 55 minutes (https://urbantoronto.ca/news/2026/03/signals-upgraded-finch-west-line-6-another-false-start.60586)


You can send the apology gift basket to 1 Yonge Street, Toronto, Ontario.

 

[Monarch Butterfly]

Yea no I highly doubt a street running LRT would cost $10 Billion unless you include the 30 years of maintenance into the cost like we did with the Crosstown, Finch West, and Ontario Lines which has caused far to much confusion among people over the exact cost of these lines. I actually hate that we have started to do this because now it just creates an inflated number that can be used by bad actors to point at and hoot and howler about how expensive something is while intentionally leaving out the distinction between the actual cost of construction and the 30 years of maintenance. It doesn't help that the media intentionally leaves out this distinction too so they can push whatever agenda Bell or Rogers wants and make the public think these projects are more expensive then they actually are. The Crosstown is a great example of this since the final cost was around $12 Billion but that includes the $4 Billion contract given to Crosslinx to maintain the line for 30 years. Which means we can assume the actualy price tag to build Line 5 was around $8 Billion after cost over runs and delays which isn't ideal but the unfortunate way things just work these days because we have forgotten how to build things (and/or there are a couple too many greasy palms that need to be taken out behind the shed....)

Wonder what was the total maintenance/reconstruction/policing/towing/painting/changing the light bulbs/etc. bill for the Gardiner Expressway and Don Valley Parkway from the 1950's to 2016? For comparison purposes.

 

[Voltz]

Damn I didn't even notice I missed a zero, think I could get a job at Metrolinx?

As long as you hire at least three consultants to report to you

 

[urbanclient]

The Crosstown is a great example of this since the final cost was around $12 Billion but that includes the $4 Billion contract given to Crosslinx to maintain the line for 30 years.

Now I'm 100% sure you are mistaken. $4 billion is not the cost of the maintenance contract. Not all costs during the 30 year concession period are for maintenance either. Example:

https://www.infrastructureontario.ca/48e20a/contentassets/ba2e174d25b14bf48610147e2e4c5289/eglinton_crosstown_lrt_project-agreement.pdf

Again, $13.1 billion was the total cost of Line 5 from the last Feb 2026 quarterly update that shows numbers up to Dec 31, 2025 (the line opened in February). $9.3 billion was incurred, but we don't know what the lump sum due upon opening was either.

Yea no I highly doubt a street running LRT would cost $10 Billion unless you include the 30 years of maintenance into the cost

There is no confusion here, 2.35 out of 10.65 billion is for 60 years of maintenance and operations.

Alternatively, 5.25 billion from 2023 to 2093 (70 years):

https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2023/ex/bgrd/backgroundfile-241047.pdf

The discrepancy is unexplained, but 5 is under Economic Case and 6 is under Financial Case.

 

[KhalilHeron]

The one seat rides I can buy, though that could be dealt with to some degree by tweaking the route. (I cannot fathom why, for example, one wishing to go west in Scarborough from McCowan Road would get on to first go much further east.)

The extra minute, not at all.

i mean ridership calculations use total travel time as a key factor so i can see the math returning 5k less passengers based off that alone. Now would that translate to real world ridership? doubt it... but the formulas used would be sensitive to a 1 minute difference

It's nuanced, not sure how it's hard to believe an 18 km windy route with 7 sharp turns and 27 stops could be potentially slower than bus lines that don't travel this exact route. Also for context, buses regularly do the Line 6 FW route faster than 30 minutes in the late evening. But again, travel time isn't the end all be all. It's the loss of one seat rides to Kennedy etc.

View attachment 732603

View attachment 732601

I remember from a public meeting a few years back that the 1 minute slower travel time was compared to the 905 bus to UTSC, not the whole route. Unsure if we've gotten travel times for the northern portion of the line

 

[nfitz]

View attachment 732602
Page 30, EGLINTON EAST LRT INITIAL BUSINESS CASE https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2022/ex/bgrd/backgroundfile-226595.pdf

Oh ... you are looking at the out-of-date 2022 INITIAL Business Case. The 2023 case clearly says the LRT is 22 km/hr versus the 18 km/hr bus. https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2023/ex/bgrd/backgroundfile-241047.pdf

You can send the apology gift basket to 1 Yonge Street, Toronto, Ontario.

Only if I can set the arrival date back to 2022.

Also for context, buses regularly do the Line 6 FW route faster than 30 minutes in the late evening.

I have no doubt that buses can beat LRT when there's relatively few riders and no traffic congestion. When I've ridden the night bus on Danforth at 6 AM it easily beats the subway from Parliament to Woodbine - less walking too.

 

[KhalilHeron]

Oh ... you are looking at the out-of-date 2022 INITIAL Business Case. The 2023 case clearly says the LRT is 22 km/hr versus the 18 km/hr bus. https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2023/ex/bgrd/backgroundfile-241047.pdf


Only if I can set the arrival date back to 2022.

reading into their ridership assumptions I'm not buying it. How is the line in the 2023 case faster than the bus when there are the same number of stops and less grade separation than the 2022 case when it was slower?

 

[urbanclient]

I have no doubt that buses can beat LRT when there's relatively few riders and no traffic congestion. When I've ridden the night bus on Danforth at 6 AM it easily beats the subway from Parliament to Woodbine - less walking too.

I knew you knew this, point is, what kind of bus would take the crazy Line 7 route? It's no wonder taking more direct buses would be faster for certain trips in the area. Line 7 would create one seat rides for certain trips, which would be appreciated by less mobile folks, but at the cost of longer door-to-door time which would not be appreciated by everyone else.

Conversely, Line 7 would've reduced one seat rides (more two seat rides/transfers) in other cases.

If the updated case still shows minus 5000 ridership, that's either a typo or revealing of the fact that the line is deeply flawed. It's usually a slam dunk for increased transit usage when an important bus route(s) gets upgraded to LRT.

 

[Bojaxs]

It's nuanced, not sure how it's hard to believe an 18 km windy route with 7 sharp turns and 27 stops could be potentially slower than bus lines that don't travel this exact route. Also for context, buses regularly do the Line 6 FW route faster than 30 minutes in the late evening. But again, travel time isn't the end all be all. It's the loss of one seat rides to Kennedy etc.

View attachment 732603

View attachment 732601

All those tight turns around UTSC. Imagine how slow the LRT's will be going around here. Looks similar to the proposed Mississauga downtown loop.

 

[KhalilHeron]

All those tight turns around UTSC. Imagine how slow the LRT's will be going around here. Looks similar to the proposed Mississauga downtown loop.

Especially if the line ends up stuck with Citadis Spirit or some similarly flawed rolling stock

 

[nfitz]

reading into their ridership assumptions I'm not buying it. How is the line in the 2023 case faster than the bus when there are the same number of stops and less grade separation than the 2022 case when it was slower?

Presumably because the bus can't handle the projected ridership growth, with buses almost every minute, causing delays at each light, and particularly gapping which then slows service with greater than peak loads. Then the increased traffic makes it difficult for the express buses to overtake the local services. The reports are lacking in enough details to get a full grasp on how they did the modelling, but I think what happened, is that the model can't directly account for capacity issues, and just blindly assumes that capacity is available for each mode.