[King of Kensington]

In Trinity-Spadina, it is a sea of orange. Rosario Marchese will win by a HUGE margin. Kate Holloway, the Liberal candidate, is invisible - I've seen about ten Liberal signs in the whole riding! Whatever the floor of Liberal support is in T-S - around 25% or so I would wager - that is what Kate Holloway will get.

Rosario's margins of victory have been getting bigger and bigger. This time it should be more than 10,000 votes.

 

[Hypnotoad]

In Trinity-Spadina, it is a sea of orange. Rosario Marchese will win by a HUGE margin. Kate Holloway, the Liberal candidate, is invisible - I've seen about ten Liberal signs in the whole riding! Whatever the floor of Liberal support is in T-S - around 25% or so I would wager - that is what Kate Holloway will get.

Rosario's margins of victory have been getting bigger and bigger. This time it should be more than 10,000 votes.

I too live in T-S and since the race is a foregone conclusion I may opt to vote in my parents' riding in the burbs to try and stave off any Tory pick-ups. But as far as campaign literature and door-to-door efforts, I've seen nothing from the NDP but have been handed pamphlets by both the Tories (the candidate looks really young) and the Liberals. Liberals actually had campaign volunteers canvas the building and knock on doors. They seemed to know what they were talking about.

 

[ShonTron]

The only candidate that came to my door was the Green Party candidate. That impressed me. At that point, I had just voted in the advance poll (so I could go to the pub night). I told her I liked half her platform - the eco part, but not so much the libertarian part, but voted for MMP, which made her happy enough.

The Dipper is a nobody in my riding (York Centre), the Liberal is a shoo-in, despite the large Jewish population in my riding (it's a different story in Thornhill). The Tory has some name recognition, but isn't expected to do well. A real snoozefest.

If my parents also still lived in Brampton West (they moved recently), I'd think about voting there, except that would be a tough choice - a decent Tory candidate (like the guy, not the party) versus the Liberal idiot there now.

 

[lordmandeep]

its a close race between the two south Asian candidate in the South Asian dominated riding of Bramalea Gore Malton.

Will be voting liberal as this has a decent chance of going Tory, and i don't want that to happen.

 

[Jdot]

Election Predictor Project has just updated their predictions for the election..

Liberal 47 seats
PC 25 seats
NDP 9 seats
Too Close to tell 26 seats

They tend to be pretty accurate, at about 80 - 95% correct over the past several elections (provincial across the country and federal).

http://www.electionprediction.org/

 

[Urban Shocker]

More tory lawn signs on my street than I've ever seen before - probably reflecting the changing nature of Riverdale and the vile, arriviste, nouveau riche, petit bourgeoisie that's been moving in of late.

 

[lordmandeep]

what riding is Riverdale???

That election predictor site is cool...

So, i was right to assume Willowdale will not go Tory. Shiner as an MP

So by next Wed, they will predict all the ridings????

Its 3-1 that the Liberal will win my riding...

 

[Urban Shocker]

I dunno. South of the Danny. Prime Riverdale. Whatever they call it. Home of the stars.

 

[lordmandeep]

Signs are not a good tool to perdict who will win.

In Brampton-Springdale, the Liberal incumbent has very few signs but everyone says she will walk away with it.

In my riding during the Federal election the conservatives had twice as many signs as the 13 year liberal incumbent and the Liberal won a majority of the vote... I think he will run again, the liberal is a good guy. Call him a week in advance and he will come to your house and have a nice talk with you...

 

[King of Kensington]

The Dipper is a nobody in my riding (York Centre), the Liberal is a shoo-in, despite the large Jewish population in my riding (it's a different story in Thornhill).

Monte Kwinter is the most high-profile Jewish politician in Ontario.

Don't let this religious schools issue fool you. Jewish Canadians have always voted massively Liberal even if the Tories have tried to use Israel or religious schools as a wedge issue. Remember that only a minority of Jewish kids (25%) are in parochial schools and most parents don't intend to send their kids there.

The alleged Jewish drift to the right really hasn't occurred outside the Orthodox community. In the US Jews go 80% Democrat even if the big Orthodox areas of Brooklyn and Rockland County vote Republican. The same is true in Canada.

At best the Conservatives will narrowly take Thornhill where there is a large Jewish minority - but they only lost it by a small amount last time. The other big Jewish ridings of St. Paul, Eglinton-Lawrence and your riding will all be going Liberal by very wide margins. That doesn't sound like a massive realignment to me.

 

[lordmandeep]

A liberal worker told me my riding was the one to watch to see who will carry the 905...

If liberals win they will take most of the 905, if Tory wins, Dalton is in trouble...

 

[King of Kensington]

I too live in T-S and since the race is a foregone conclusion I may opt to vote in my parents' riding in the burbs to try and stave off any Tory pick-ups. But as far as campaign literature and door-to-door efforts, I've seen nothing from the NDP but have been handed pamphlets by both the Tories (the candidate looks really young) and the Liberals. Liberals actually had campaign volunteers canvas the building and knock on doors. They seemed to know what they were talking about.

I have been all over the riding and there are hundreds of NDP signs and probably about 15 for the Liberals. There are probably more signs on the windows of Holloway HQ on Spadina!

I was on the Danforth the other day and looked around the reisdential streets there. It's also an NDP riding and as expected Peter Tabuns was in the lead. But at least there were Joyce Roylands signs as well - so at least they had some sort of campaign!

While federally Tony Ianno has his people (though T-S would be more winnable for the Libs if the candidate was NOT Ianno) who establish a presence, provincially they have not run a serious campaign in T-S since Bob Wong tried to reclaim Rosario's seat in '95.

 

[King of Kensington]

They tend to be pretty accurate, at about 80 - 95% correct over the past several elections (provincial across the country and federal).

I enjoy that site but the 80-95% figure you cite isn't all that impressive. The question is their percentage of ridings that are actually in contention are called correctly. Remember that figure includes predicting a Liberal win in Mount Royal, a Conservative win in Medicine Hat, etc.

 

[CDL.TO]

I live in Michael Bryant's riding in Toronto which seems to be the definition of solid Liberal so I came down to my parent's riding in Niagara which is a real swing riding. Overall there aren't that many signs around... period. Locals likely see bright election signs as being out of character with the quaint nature of the town.

 

[JasonParis]

I'm in Smithermanville a.k.a. Toronto Centre.