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adma said:
Whatever "demo change" there is, it isn't *that* kind of demo change--Liz West was a vote-park of convenience last time; but her "endorsed-by-Ford-ness" is presently a millstone. If *anyone* upsets Fletcher this time, it'll be Jane Farrow.
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Don't you think it might a replay of the 2010 mayoralty race with Smitherman and Pantalone splitting the left to an R Ford win...Wouldn't it be better for Farrow to wait for Fletcher to pass the baton?
 
Greg Banks said:
Don't you think it might a replay of the 2010 mayoralty race with Smitherman and Pantalone splitting the left to an R Ford win...Wouldn't it be better for Farrow to wait for Fletcher to pass the baton?
Click to expand...

It depends on whether you see 2010-model Fletcher vs West as a "left vs right" race or an "incumbent vs anti" race. Under that circumstance, and given ward demographics, Liz West--esp. now that she's being more openly viewed through a Ford filter--might well have *less* of a chance now; and Jane Farrow's better poised to pick up the "Wynne Democrat" diaspora.

Keep in mind, too, that when Fletcher was *first* elected in 2003, there were similar fears that a split in the left (w/Kyle Rae assistant Chris Phibbs) would elect a right-of-centre councillor--instead, said right-of-centre contender wound up a poor third. And there's other cases on Council where the anticipated non-lefty prevailing over a left split flopped: Sportsnet's Sean McCormick got nowhere vs Mike Layton + Karen Sun in 2010, and a four-or-more-way split didn't help Ted Lojko vs Gord Perks in 2006--in both cases, likewise, the non-lefty was third behind the main two leftys...
 
Hindsight.

From October 18, 2010, in The Star, at this link,

The Star's choices for Toronto council, Wards 1-21


...here are our election choices for Wards 1 to 21:

Ward 1 Etobicoke North: Incumbent Suzan Hall hasn’t been a dynamic force on council, but none of her challengers inspires confidence that they could do better. We offer a tepid endorsement for Hall.

Ward 2 Etobicoke North: With Rob Ford pursuing mayoral ambitions, his brother, Doug, is hoping to keep this city council seat in the family. A better choice is Cadigia Ali, an accomplished graduate of medical school, in Rome, with a long record of community service.

Ward 3 Etobicoke Centre: Tight-fisted incumbent Doug Holyday, a former mayor of Etobicoke, has a conservative bent, but he’s principled and unafraid to challenge the status quo. Council would be the worse without him, so he gets our endorsement.

Ward 4 Etobicoke Centre: Long-serving Gloria Lindsay Luby has been a lacklustre performer who, for lack of an alternative, we have previously endorsed. Not this year. Former public school board chair John Campbell, a demonstrated leader who managed the tough school closings issue, gets our nod.

Ward 5 Etobicoke-Lakeshore: Incumbent Peter Milczyn is a moderate councillor who did notable work delivering the city’s 311 information service. He should be returned.

Ward 6 Etobicoke-Lakeshore: Low-key councillor Mark Grimes took a principled stand in hammering out a compromise on the city’s land transfer tax. It won the support of the Toronto Board of Trade and a council majority. He warrants re-election.

Ward 7 York West: Notable for his shameless grandstanding and political opportunism, incumbent Giorgio Mammoliti should be ousted. Far more deserving is Larry Perlman, an equities trader who knows finances and is deeply involved in the community.

Ward 8 York West: Incumbent Anthony Perruzza is again squaring off against rival Peter Li Preti, the only sitting councillor to be defeated in the 2006 election. Perruzza has a social conscience and is a far better choice.

Ward 9 York Centre: A very limp endorsement goes to incumbent Maria Augimeri, whose intemperate statements and questionable conduct have repeatedly proved an embarrassment. She is saved only by her impressive constituency work and by the absence of a strong challenger.

Ward 10 York Centre: Several solid candidates are vying for this vacant council seat, formerly held by veteran councillor Mike Feldman. We like Brian Shifman. He’s a well-spoken executive in the environmental sector and a strong advocate for public transit.

Ward 11 York South-Weston: Incumbent Frances Nunziata, a veteran of 25 years in local politics, has been uninspiring of late. It is time for her to go. Fulvio Sansone, a staffer in the province’s Family Responsibility Office, deserves a chance to show what he can do.

Ward 12 York South-Weston: Ineffective Frank Di Giorgio doesn’t deserve a return to council. Voters should choose Rick Gosling, a dedicated city-builder helping children and youth.

Ward 13 Parkdale-High Park: Bill Saundercook is another incumbent who has been around too long. Sarah Doucette, a successful community activist and local leader, would be a more progressive voice for the ward at city hall.

Ward 14 Parkdale-High Park: Environmentalist Gord Perks has done inspired work on council and deserves to be returned.

Ward 15 Eglinton-Lawrence: This ward, vacated by warhorse Howard Moscoe, is being strongly contested by two notable rivals: business executive Josh Colle (son of MPP Mike Colle) and Catholic school trustee and former councillor Rob Davis. In light of Davis’s unimpressive previous record on council, we prefer Colle.

Ward 16 Eglinton-Lawrence: Karen Stintz is a thoughtful conservative who seriously considered running for mayor. While she faces stiff opposition in this election, she warrants our support.

Ward 17 Davenport: Incumbent Cesar Palacio was one of three councillors (with Mammoliti and Di Giorgio) who took part in a strip club “industry tour” during a break in an official meeting. A far better choice here is community activist Jonah Schein.

Ward 18 Davenport: This open council seat, previously held by TTC Chair Adam Giambrone, is being hotly contested. Giambrone’s assistant, Kevin Beaulieu, seems capable. But we like Ana Bailao. She’s a Portuguese immigrant who cleaned offices before becoming a bank vice-president. Like Beaulieu, Bailao also spent part of her career behind-the-scenes at city hall; unlike him, she would mean a significant change from the status quo.

Ward 19 Trinity-Spadina: With Joe Pantalone gone to seek the mayoralty, his open ward is being aggressively fought over by two left-of-centre candidates: Mike Layton, son of federal New Democratic Party Leader Jack Layton, and Karen Sun, head of the Chinese Canadian National Council Toronto Chapter. Both have sound environmental credentials and would likely represent the ward well on council. But we’re impressed by Sun’s record as a grassroots city-builder and her dedication to human rights. She gets our support.

Ward 20 Trinity-Spadina: Incumbent Adam Vaughan, the former television reporter, has become one of city council’s leading lights and definitely deserves re-election.

Ward 21 St. Paul’s: Joe Mihevc, vice-chair of the TTC, is a steady, hard-working councillor with a progressive voice. He should be returned.
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From October 19, 2010, in The Star, at this link:

Ward 22 St. Paul’s: Two strong challengers are running in this ward, vacated by council maverick Michael Walker. Energetic Chris Sellors knows the ward well, having served as Walker’s assistant. Rival Josh Matlow is a bold public school trustee unafraid to question authority. We favour Matlow to better challenge the status quo.

Ward 23 Willowdale: Incumbent John Filion spearheaded Toronto’s ethnic food cart program, which he later admited was a “fiasco,” and he hasn’t been a strong supporter of cutting council perks. Still, Filion has done good work chairing the board of health and generally votes sensibly. A tepid endorsement here.

Ward 24 Willowdale: Less than a year after being elected in the last municipal vote, incumbent David Shiner ran for the provincial legislature. He intended to collect his council salary while campaigning until he was shamed into taking an unpaid leave. Rather than keep this opportunist in office, we favour Sonny Cho, a successful commercial real estate broker with Liberal roots and fresh vision.

Ward 25 Don Valley West: Incumbent Cliff Jenkins has done some good work, but challenger Jaye Robinson holds brighter promise. She has effectively promoted the city as a staffer in its economic development division, and she could do even more as a councillor.

Ward 26 Don Valley West: Our enthusiastic nod goes to Mohamed Dhanani over incumbent John Parker. Dhanani, who lived in the Flemingdon Park part of the ward before graduating from Yale, has worked in government, business and the community.

Ward 27 Toronto Centre-Rosedale: With Kyle Rae leaving the scene, a sharp fight has developed between two strong candidates over this open seat. Kristyn Wong-Tam is an art gallery owner, real estate agent and respected city-builder. But our choice is Ken Chan, an ex-cop who earned an MBA and worked at Queen’s Park before going to England to advise London Mayor Boris Johnson on community safety. He’ll bring a multi-faceted perspective to city hall.

Ward 28 Toronto Centre-Rosedale: Incumbent Pam McConnell hasn’t been a stellar performer, but we remain unconvinced that any of her rivals would do any better. She gets our reluctant endorsement.

Ward 29 Toronto-Danforth: Three capable women are seeking this open seat, formerly held by Case Ootes. Jane Pitfield, a former councillor and past mayoral candidate, has political experience while business person Mary Fragedakis offers a fresh perspective. We prefer lawyer Jennifer Wood, a senior legal counsel at RBC. City hall could benefit from her corporate savvy.

Ward 30 Toronto-Danforth: Among this year’s missteps, incumbent Paula Fletcher berated a resident questioning the budget and fumbled her vote on a major bike lane. On the other hand, she’s a progressive voice in council. Fletcher gets our endorsement.

Ward 31 Beaches-East York: Incumbent Janet Davis provides solid, well-informed service. She’s a hard-working asset on council

Ward 32 Beaches-East York: Mary-Margaret McMahon is an inspiring community volunteer and city-builder. Sandra Bussin is an incumbent with a strong sense of self-entitlement. We support McMahon.

Ward 33 Don Valley East: Incumbent Shelley Carroll is one of council’s best and brightest and deserves to be returned.

Ward 34 Don Valley East: Incumbent Denzil Minnan-Wong is seasoned, articulate and thoughtful conservative. He’s our choice here.

Ward 35 Scarborough Southwest: Incumbent Adrian Heaps settled out of court with his chief opponent in 2006, Michelle Berardinetti, in a libel action arising from that campaign. Council then approved spending some $65,000 to reimburse him for his legal expenses, against the advice of the city solicitor. In the ensuing public uproar, Heaps turned the money down. Voters now get to cast their judgment. Our nod goes to Berardinetti, who is running again.

Ward 36 Scarborough Southwest: With Brian Ashton’s departure, 10 candidates are vying for this seat. We like Robert Spencer. He’s an articulate environmental consultant with school board experience and one of the few credible candidates in this part of the city who isn’t blindly opposed to wind turbines.

Ward 37 Scarborough Centre: Incumbent Michael Thompson works hard and is a dedicated advocate of his ward. He should be returned.

Ward 38 Scarborough Centre: Incumbent Glenn De Baeremaeker is a strong and compelling progressive who deserves re-election.

Ward 39 Scarborough-Agincourt: Incumbent Mike Del Grande is unimpressive, but neither of his two opponents inspires any confidence. No endorsement here.

Ward 40 Scarborough-Agincourt: He has spent more than 20 years in municipal office; yet incumbent Norm Kelly still fails to impress. Well-spoken Bryan Heal, a worker at non-profit agency helping children and youth, deserves a chance to show what he can do.

Ward 41 Scarborough-Rouge River: Incumbent Chin Lee has done good work on municipal election reform but should strive to play a larger role on council. He gets a lukewarm endorsement.

Ward 42 Scarborough-Rouge River: It’s time for long-time incumbent Raymond Cho to move on. Our choice to replace him is Neethan Shan, head of the Council of Agencies Serving South Asians. Shan is a long-serving community activist doing good work in Malvern.

Ward 43 Scarborough East: Incumbent Paul Ainslie is opposed to wind turbines and hasn’t exactly been a dynamo on council. But his main opponent, John Laforet, heads an Ontario-wide anti-wind coalition and is unlikely to be an improvement. A low-voltage endorsement goes to Ainslie.

Ward 44 Scarborough East: Incumbent Ron Moeser is hardly visible at city hall and doesn’t deserve to be returned. A far better choice is Diana Hall, who lost to Moeser by just 61 votes in 2006. Hall knows the ward well and is a thoughtful conservative. She, once again, has our support.
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And from the Toronto Sun, by Sue-Ann Levy, at this link, on October 19, 2010:

-Ward 2, Etobicoke North: Doug Ford all the way to represent the ward held by his brother, Rob, for the past 10 years.

-Ward 9, York Centre: After taking her sweet time to return from Italy following the Sunrise Propane explosion in 2008 and cozying up to David Miller for the past seven years, 25-year councillor Maria Augimeri has overstayed her welcome. Despite her desperate efforts to call in her markers with her TTC and firefighter buddies, people want change in this Downsview-area ward. My pick is fiscally conservative businessman Gus Cusimano.

-Ward 15, Eglinton-Lawrence: One-time city councillor Rob Davis has been out working this ward and fighting the Lawrence Heights revitalization since January. He deserves to win over Josh Colle, who came into the race late riding on his Liberal daddy Mike Colle's coattails and endorsed by retiring Howard Moscoe.

-Ward 21, St. Paul's: Ever the opportunist, NDPer Joe Mihevc - the man behind the St. Clair right of way boondoggle - endorsed George Smitherman to get himself the coveted TTC chairmanship. One can only hope his arrogance will do him in. My pick is newcomer Shimmy Posen who is putting up a strong fight in this diverse ward.

-Ward 22, St. Paul's: In my home ward, I'm voting for Josh Matlow over Chris Sellors for true change and not another Michael Walker clone.

-Ward 27, Toronto Centre-Rosedale: There's a tight race in this downtown ward between former Peel Region cop and well-liked Liberal Ken Chan and NDP chameleon Kristyn Wong-Tam, recently outed in this column for her ties to the highly controversial Queers Against Israeli Apartheid, CUPE and CAW. My pick, hands down, is Ken Chan.

- Ward 29, Toronto-Danforth: Former city councillor Jane Pitfield, who ran a courageous and hard-fought campaign against David Miller in 2006 deserves to return to City Hall. Pitfield has shown she's not afraid to roll up her sleeves and do the dirty work on council. Count on her to put the homeless portfolio back in order.

- Ward 30, Toronto-Danforth: It's TV personality Liz West all the way against former Communist party head and Miller comrade Paula Fletcher.

- Ward 35, Scarborough Southwest: David Miller accolyte Adrian Heaps was prepared to take $65,000 to pay for his legal bills incurred as a candidate in the 2006 election - despite the fact that the payout was illegal - until the Toronto Party for a Better City launched a lawsuit. Heaps, who doesn't even live in this ward, deserves to be sent packing by fiscal conservative Michelle Berardinetti
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W.K. it is interesting to take a look at NOW's choices also...they eneded up 20 of 40 with four no picks...some really interesting activist names came up in their choices...I'll apologize for not linking.... luddite that I am (I should really invest in a couple of computer courses then again I could end up being dangerous).
 
Bet she is regretting that choice.

She probably read about how Matlow described himself as a 'libertarian' one time and thought he'd be a swell right-wing choice or something.
 
Wasn't Matlow a peace and environmental activist who ran for the provincial Liberals in 2003?

(I wouldn't rule out a Matlow federal run if Carolyn Bennett retires in 2015.)
 
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Just noticed...the 1st qtr 2014 Councillor expenses are up...let's take a look at the top fives
General Expense (constituency office)
Augimeri 5,423
Moeser 4,274
DiGiorgio 3,859
Palacio 2,633
Pasternak 1,328

Councillor Expense (the day to day stuff)
Robinson 4,239
Grimes 3,923
Lindsay-Luby 3,874
Ainslie 3,782
Crawford 3,762

and only one person used their the flyer entitlement McMahon 2,340

Any suprises?
 
Greg Banks said:
Just noticed...the 1st qtr 2014 Councillor expenses are up...let's take a look at the top fives
General Expense (constituency office)
Augimeri 5,423
Moeser 4,274
DiGiorgio 3,859
Palacio 2,633
Pasternak 1,328

Councillor Expense (the day to day stuff)
Robinson 4,239
Grimes 3,923
Lindsay-Luby 3,874
Ainslie 3,782
Crawford 3,762

and only one person used their the flyer entitlement McMahon 2,340

Any suprises?
Click to expand...

If only they had a family business from which they could pay the expenses from.
 
I'd generally think suburban councilors will have to spend more cause their constituencies are geographically larger and less accessible. But it might just be a different mentality in the suburbs too.
 
Unless the people of Ward 2 are that dumb, Doug just helped out an opponent a lot.
 
43 Down's (an NF facebook blog) up to date choices for Councillor replacements or endorsement
Ward 2 Michael Ford
Ward 4 Angelo Carnevale
Ward 8 Arthur Smitherman
Ward 9 Gus Cusimano
Ward 10 Igor Toutchinsky
Ward 11 Frances Nunziata
Ward 14 Gus Koutoumanos
Ward 20 Reg Hartt
Ward 27 Benjamin Dichter
Ward 29 John Papadakis
Ward 30 Liz West
Ward 33 Paul Bell
Ward 40 Anthony Internicola
Comments anyone?
 
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