[newearthling]

My crystal ball tells me about the same. Theoretically, that could still win him a second Mayorship, but highly unlikely.

Isn't that roughly what RoFo got the first time around? He got 47% of the vote, but only half of all eligible people showed up to vote in 2010. So he became mayor with only a quarter of all possible votes.

Granted more people are going to turn out to vote this year. If nothing else, RoFo has been great for civic engagement.

But the vote could still get split, and he could slide in. So we need to make sure the vote doesn't get split.

 

[Solid Snake]

Isn't that roughly what RoFo got the first time around? He got 47% of the vote, but only half of all eligible people showed up to vote in 2010. So he became mayor with only a quarter of all possible votes.

Granted more people are going to turn out to vote this year. If nothing else, RoFo has been great for civic engagement.

But the vote could still get split, and he could slide in. So we need to make sure the vote doesn't get split.

In the end, it's comes down to who can get their respective supporters to go out and vote for them. This is a crucial aspect of any elections. Doesn't matter how popular you are in the polls if those people supporting you wont go out and vote.

 

[flonicky]

When things shake out over the next few months, 27% might end up being too ambitious for Ford, if he even makes it to election day. I could see him dropping out to run for his old council seat if things start looking bad. I bet this ends up being (depending on who runs) a contest between Chow and Soknacki. Both have mojo. Stintz and Tory are quickly showing that they're too wobbly.

 

[JWBF]

My crystal ball tells me about the same. Theoretically, that could still win him a second Mayorship, but highly unlikely.

Unfortunately, we just may allow him to be reelected, but look on the positive side, Robbie and/or Dougie will screw things up again. And... if Dougie does make it to MPP then the scandal might topple Hudak's house.

When things shake out over the next few months, 27% might end up being too ambitious for Ford, if he even makes it to election day. I could see him dropping out to run for his old council seat if things start looking bad. I bet this ends up being (depending on who runs) a contest between Chow and Soknacki. Both have mojo. Stintz and Tory are quickly showing that they're too wobbly.

That's then, and this is now. This does not mean I don't agree with you, there's just too many whispers.

 

[evvabeing]

Toronto City Council Electability Index: can math predict council elections?

http://metronews.ca/voices/ford-for...ity-index-can-math-predict-council-elections/

 

[Admiral Beez]

I could see him dropping out to run for his old council seat if things start looking bad.

Councillor Vincent Crisanti will have to step aside for that to happen, and he's smartly got himself a seat on Ford's executive committee. It would take a lot of crack for Ford to admit mayoral defeat in mid-campaign, and then try to unseat one of his seemingly loyal supporters.

If Ford loses the mayoral race, he'll run for election in Etobicoke North in 2018. By then, Ranked Ballots should be in place, so he'll have no chance of winning a mayoral race due to a widely split vote. To be fair, in 2010, Ford would have likely have won with a Rank Ballot system.

 

[adma]

Councillor Vincent Crisanti will have to step aside for that to happen, and he's smartly got himself a seat on Ford's executive committee. It would take a lot of crack for Ford to admit mayoral defeat in mid-campaign, and then try to unseat one of his seemingly loyal supporters.

Actually, Ford's old council seat (Ward 2) is held by Doug Ford. Crisanti defeated Suzan Hall in Ward 1 in 2010.

 

[newearthling]

Wow, it is sad that most wards had less than 50% turn out in 2010.

 

[newearthling]

Posted this in the other thread but it should be here I guess.

Olivia Chow: 'I am seriously considering running for mayor'
CTV Toronto
Published Thursday, January 16, 2014 12:27PM EST

NDP MP Olivia Chow has once again signalled her interest in becoming mayor of Toronto, but she's not ready to make it official yet.

Chow was in Toronto Thursday, where she joined other NDP MPs to call on the federal and provincial governments to offer the city some storm recovery assistance.

Chow pointed to the aid offered to the city of Calgary after flooding there, suggesting that it would only be fair that Toronto get similar help to recover from summertime flooding and the recent ice storm.

But reporters were keen to get Chow on the record regarding her municipal election intentions.

When she was asked to clarify her plan, the former city councillor replied, "I love the city of Toronto. It's my home.

"I am seriously considering running for mayor. I have not made a decision, and once I've made that decision I'll let you know," Chow said.

Toronto voters head to the polls in October.

Incumbent Mayor Rob Ford was first to register as a candidate. Former city councillor David Soknacki is among the more than 20 others who have also joined the race.

TTC chair Karen Stintz has declared her intention to run, though she has not registered as a candidate.

Chow is among a list of undeclared, potential contenders that also includes former provincial PC Party leader John Tory, and longtime Ford ally, councillor Denzil Minnan-Wong.

 

[Admiral Beez]

TTC chair Karen Stintz has declared her intention to run, though she has not registered as a candidate.

Chow is among a list of undeclared, potential contenders....

Chow has zero risk, in that if she runs for mayor and loses, she can continue her MP job uninterrupted until she retires with her big pension.

Stintz, and every other mayoral candidate on council has a huge risk, in that if they run for mayor and lose, they lose their council seat too. I imagine Stintz will look at her chances against what she stands to lose, and call it quits, and instead run again for her seat on council.

 

[ShonTron]

Chow has zero risk, in that if she runs for mayor and loses, she can continue her MP job uninterrupted until she retires with her big pension.

Stintz, and every other mayoral candidate on council has a huge risk, in that if they run for mayor and lose, they lose their council seat too. I imagine Stintz will look at her chances against what she stands to lose, and call it quits, and instead run again for her seat on council.

That's incorrect. Chow will have to resign if she runs for municipal office. Smitherman had to resign from the Ontario government to run for mayor too, same with Denis Coderre having to resign from the Federal government to run for mayor of Montreal. The same is not true for municipal candidates running for upper levels of government (see: Shiner, Holyday, Milczyn, Chow, Duguid).

Stintz could pull a Mammo in July or August - there's no risk yet to her. If she continues through the deadline, then yeah, she carries that risk, though I doubt she'll be needing for long.

 

[retailestate]

That's incorrect. Chow will have to resign if she runs for municipal office. Smitherman had to resign from the Ontario government to run for mayor too, same with Denis Coderre having to resign from the Federal government to run for mayor of Montreal. The same is not true for municipal candidates running for upper levels of government (see: Shiner, Holyday, Milczyn, Chow, Duguid).

Stintz could pull a Mammo in July or August - there's no risk yet to her. If she continues through the deadline, then yeah, she carries that risk, though I doubt she'll be needing for long.

Yeah but Chow already qualifies for a few pensions - so risk is relative...

 

[evvabeing]

Ignore Rob Ford, let’s pay attention to David Soknacki

While Ford has spent much of the time since he registered for re-election staging photo ops with storm clean-up crews and trying to get Premier Kathleen Wynne to send him a text message, Soknacki has been out actually talking about civic issues and making policy announcements. It’s refreshing.

http://metronews.ca/voices/ford-for...ob-ford-lets-pay-attention-to-david-soknacki/

 

[adma]

That's incorrect. Chow will have to resign if she runs for municipal office. Smitherman had to resign from the Ontario government to run for mayor too, same with Denis Coderre having to resign from the Federal government to run for mayor of Montreal.

And don't forget that other scandal-ridden Ontario mayor: Joe Fontana. (Though he actually *lost* the London mayoral race he resigned as an MP to run in--but succeeded in the rematch 4 years later.)

 

[MetroMan]

I'm told that Olivia Chow's campaign machine is now running, managing her PR and implementing strategies. Her public appearances for her book tour and her inevitable comments on her run and opinion on Rob a Ford all have John Laschinger behind them.

Her book tour is the perfect tool to campaign without officially entering the race. She's out there being visible, meeting people and talking to the media from the start but gets to delay the Big Bang of her campaign launch until much later so she can peak on October 27, not in the summer like Smitherman did.

Her campaign nonetheless was smart to delay her book tour to January so that there's no appearance of illegal campaigning. Like any other candidate for councillor or mayor they're allowed to unofficially campaign as long as they're not raising/spending money and not using the words For Mayor/Councillor.