[TheTigerMaster]

I know you're just trolling Miller supporters, but he put in a comprehensive LRT plan that you vilify, but was COMPREHENSIVE. He bought new subway cars, new streetcars, and Ford's underground ECLRT was possible due to Miller's plan being horsetraded by a dick who couldn't stop it all. He put in the great new ROW streetcar on St. Clair that is no way a disaster. Can we stop with the revisionism about Toronto's best Mayor in my time in Toronto (91-14)?

You also forgot to mention the fact that Mayor Miller had more subways under construction that any other mayor in the history of our city. Over 20km of subways are under construction thanks to his actions.

Meanwhile Ford has a total of 0 km of subway under construction.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I wonder if Soknacki is smart enough to realize that he is stuck at 5% support and has no chance of gaining support unless something changes.

I would think that he could probably still fit a connected ECLRT and SRT into his plans without appearing to be changing his plans. I don't think that Eglinton portion has been discussed much, so he could add this to his third transit announcement and get some new buzz into his campaign.

This is exactly what I want him to do. He could claim to be a "subway champion" and whatever.

 

[StatGeek]

I am not going to diss Soknacki or his supports, out of the five I like Soknacki is the best. But as for this elections I don't see a Neshi or a Miller upset happening. The big difference is that those guys ran and won where there was no incumbent. The two more established names (without the incumbent loyalty) beat up on each other and they kind of came up the middle. Now you have three major candidates including an incumbent I am not really sure where Soknacki comes up from. Last year he might have had a better chance I would have probably been the official opposition of Ford in the election (certainly better than Smitherman and Joey Pants)

Looking at the recent Forum numbers. The only number that stands out is Chow's drop. Ford and Tory is pretty much the same and seems to be static. If I was a Chow supporters I wouldn't be to concerned unless the next Forum poll has her under 30 again. It seems like a lot of Chow votes went to Stintz who doubled her percentage from earlier this month. I don't think Stintz and Soknacki could hold up. Something I always look at is top 3 going up against each other. Chow goes from 29 to 35%, Tory goes from 28 to 32%. Ford literally stays the same at 27%. His base LOVES him but the anybody but Ford goes deep as he doesn't get a single percentage bump for Stintz or Soknacki.

I think S & S is going to drop out. If it close between the top three if they have any party politics ambitions they will be forced to drop out. Even if they don't drop out I can't see a fourth and fifth place candidate getting 11% of the vote. Let's go back to Miller win of 2003 and the last time it really had an open election with multiple strong candidates. Miller had 43%, Tory 38%, Hall ended up with 9%, fourth place John Nunziata 5%, fifth place Tom Jakobek (who had a bit of a right-wing name) had less then 1%.

Looking deeper in the poll something really stood out. Who is the Ford vote by ethnicity.
Total 27%, Demo breakdown: Canadian 23, British 19, Other Euro 31, South Asian 23, Asian 24, Caribbean 62, Other 36.
Everyone is at average or below but Caribbean is really eye catching (I wonder how much of that 31% of other European is Italian compared to other countries) The next two strongest is for Chow, British 42% and Asians 40%.

 

[Juan_Lennon416]

You also forgot to mention the fact that Mayor Miller had more subways under construction that any other mayor in the history of our city. Over 20km of subways are under construction thanks to his actions.

Meanwhile Ford has a total of 0 km of subway under construction.

Miller was a joke on issues such as crime. Every time he opened his mouth on the issue, he sounded like a fool.

 

[Riverdale Rink Rat]

Miller was a joke on issues such as crime. Every time he opened his mouth on the issue, he sounded like a fool.

Pray tell. I believe every time he opened his mouth, he said "not a municipal job to pass laws", although he did ixnay the helicopter fetish. Enlighten me.

 

[adma]

(I wonder how much of that 31% of other European is Italian compared to other countries)

Or would Jewish count as "Other Euro"? I can see Neil Flagg-esque hawks sticking by Ford.

And, for that matter...from anecdotal observation, I can see the Polish figure as markedly high, and not just because of some notion that Ford is practically "Polish through marriage" (or the hyper-Catholic-socon "John Paul II" element). My feeling is that especially among the "newcomers", there's a strong grassroots-entrepreneurial streak that especially germinated within the Communist-era black-market economy and still carries residual disdain for "authority" and "regulation"--in a way, Poland's to Eastern Europe as Alberta is to Canada or the Beauce region is to Quebec; and all the more so with Poles who moved *away* from Poland, especially to places like Canada which are perceived to be regulation-free paradises compared to the mire of their Communist-turned-EU-bureaucratic homelands.

And Rob Ford represents the kind of Canada they *thought* they were moving to--in a way, he's like a homegrown incarnation of the impulse that led Poles, in their first "free" presidential election in 1990, to put Canadian Libertarian Party leader Stan Tyminski into the runoff vs Lech Walesa (and leaping over PM Tadeusz Mazowiecki in the process). And interestingly, Tyminski played a similar smoke-and-mirrors game as the Fords, campaigning with a black briefcase supposedly full of scandalous documents a la Ford's imaginary "gravy train", et al. And I'll betcha that a lot of those Tyminski supporters followed Tyminski back to Canada...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanisław_Tymiński

 

[WislaHD]

As a Polish-Canadian (who is currently on vacation to Poland atm, go figure), I thought about that a few times over the year and my conclusion is that they probably supported him in 2010, but you are overlooking some major Polish social traits. Namely, Poland has massive massive family values and Ford is not someone that you would present to your children. There were also no drugs in Commie Poland and drug use (besides smoking and drinking obviously) is so foreign and looked upon very poorly. Same thing with crime and Rob Ford's known associates. Polish people are also hard-working as a trait and IMO would resent someone like Ford who never had to work a day in his life. I also think Polish people, like Italians, would vote for a Polish guy before anyone else and this time there is a small-c conservative Pole in Soknacki to vote for. Even if they don't know who he is, they'll see the name and vote for him.

Also I don't think the Polish population in the city of Toronto is that big of a voting bloc to affect polls. Most Poles live in the 905 today.

 

[NorthYorkEd]

At least Chow, Tory, and Soknacki didn't "raid" FordFest. I avoided it, and any future FordFests.

And yet the two female candidates who allegedly suffered from Ford's misogyny couldn't wait to attend...

 

[King of Kensington]

Homophobia might be the glue that holds Ford Nation together at this point.

I think in the next Forum poll they should run some questions about same-sex marriage, Pride, etc.

 

[King of Kensington]

Or would Jewish count as "Other Euro"? I can see Neil Flagg-esque hawks sticking by Ford.

And, for that matter...from anecdotal observation, I can see the Polish figure as markedly high, and not just because of some notion that Ford is practically "Polish through marriage" (or the hyper-Catholic-socon "John Paul II" element). My feeling is that especially among the "newcomers", there's a strong grassroots-entrepreneurial streak that especially germinated within the Communist-era black-market economy and still carries residual disdain for "authority" and "regulation"--in a way, Poland's to Eastern Europe as Alberta is to Canada or the Beauce region is to Quebec; and all the more so with Poles who moved *away* from Poland, especially to places like Canada which are perceived to be regulation-free paradises compared to the mire of their Communist-turned-EU-bureaucratic homelands.

And Rob Ford represents the kind of Canada they *thought* they were moving to--in a way, he's like a homegrown incarnation of the impulse that led Poles, in their first "free" presidential election in 1990, to put Canadian Libertarian Party leader Stan Tyminski into the runoff vs Lech Walesa (and leaping over PM Tadeusz Mazowiecki in the process). And interestingly, Tyminski played a similar smoke-and-mirrors game as the Fords, campaigning with a black briefcase supposedly full of scandalous documents a la Ford's imaginary "gravy train", et al. And I'll betcha that a lot of those Tyminski supporters followed Tyminski back to Canada...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanisław_Tymiński

Few Jewish voters are socially conservative, they're more educated and affluent on average, and foreign policy is not an issue in this campaign. I'm pretty sure Ford's Jewish support is very, very low.

 

[Videodrome]

Does Ezra Levant support him? I pay no attention to Sun News.

Total 27%, Demo breakdown: Canadian 23, British 19, Other Euro 31, South Asian 23, Asian 24, Caribbean 62, Other 36.

Maybe I am reaching, but one reason this is the case is because he is homophobic and the countries they come from are very anti-gay. In Jamaica, a man gets 10 years in jail just for being gay (no punishment for women though).

 

[King of Kensington]

Remember the Caribbean sample includes only 45 people.

 

[Torontovibe]

I know you're just trolling Miller supporters, but he put in a comprehensive LRT plan that you vilify, but was COMPREHENSIVE. He bought new subway cars, new streetcars, and Ford's underground ECLRT was possible due to Miller's plan being horsetraded by a dick who couldn't stop it all. He put in the great new ROW streetcar on St. Clair that is no way a disaster. Can we stop with the revisionism about Toronto's best Mayor in my time in Toronto (91-14)?

Don't forget the massive renovation of Union Station. Miller did a lot to build this city besides transit, like supporting the Ripley's Aquarium, which I'm sure Ford would have refused. Also Sugar Beach, Sherbourne Park, Regent Park, The Arts Centre & swimming pool, as well as the West Don Lands development and the Pan-Am Games. Lots of city building got done under Miller, so let's not forget that. There is more to city building then just transportation.

 

[jml]

When Forum does a poll, why don't they ask "Has your opinion changed since [date of last poll]?" The analysis of their numbers always suggests an electorate whose opinion is in constant flux, changing every couple of weeks. But if they added that question, we could get a better idea if they're just sampling slightly different slices of the city every time.

 

[King of Kensington]

I also think Polish people, like Italians, would vote for a Polish guy before anyone else and this time there is a small-c conservative Pole in Soknacki to vote for. Even if they don't know who he is, they'll see the name and vote for him.

And yet the "Italian vote" went to Ford and not Joe Pantalone in 2010.