[WislaHD]

So Tory is leading every region of the city?

That is interesting.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

If that's true, than Forum is basically a propaganda polling firm. Remember they also had that phoney opinion poll recently on subway vs LRT, that tried to make the subway appear more popular.

That's a good point. They know Tory will be weak and bend to the wind as well. He would prefer subway over LRT.

Really? If Forum is biasing anything they are biasing to Tory. How else to explain the over representation of the Old City at 434 of 1164 respondents vs the underrepresentation of North York at 245 and Scarborough at 230....I suppose you could argue Etobicoke/York's overrepresentation of 255 would equalize if in fact it was Ford weighted however the was not the case (Ford34% Tory33% Chow28%)

So Tory up 5% D Ford down 2% and Chow down 3% from last Ipsos poll....sounds reasonable

I agree 100 percent with you Greg, that's what I was thinking in my previous post. The are having Doug Ford up high so people will get scared and vote Tory. Btw, 1 month left, what do you think of the race now? Chow is done now, yes?

 

[adma]

Btw, 1 month left, what do you think of the race now? Chow is done now, yes?

Possibly done enough to lose. But not done enough to be coerced into quitting--she remains a valid voting option for those who can't stomach the rest. And I increasingly wouldn't worry about Nader/Joe Pants-style "vote splitting", either...

 

[Silence&Motion]

You guys can take off your tinfoil hats. Forum's main interest is running a public polling firm. The best way to do that, is to poll as accurately as possible. The best way to fail at that, is to publish false numbers. Why would Forum want to put its entire company on the line in order to influence a single mayoral election in a very unpredictable, convoluted sort of way?

You can argue that their sampling or likely voter model is inaccurate (we'll find out on election day). But claiming that they're actively scheming to manipulate the public so that they can install their favourite candidate is crazy talk.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

You guys can take off your tinfoil hats. Forum's main interest is running a public polling firm. The best way to do that, is to poll as accurately as possible. The best way to fail at that, is to publish false numbers. Why would Forum want to put its entire company on the line in order to influence a single mayoral election in a very unpredictable, convoluted sort of way?

You can argue that their sampling or likely voter model is inaccurate (we'll find out on election day). But claiming that they're actively scheming to manipulate the public so that they can install their favourite candidate is crazy talk.

So then their voter model is highly inaccurate, unless there are more supporting Ford then you want to believe.

 

[Videodrome]

I just wonder why a dozen other polling firms could give Tory a 20 point lead, but Forum would come up with a dead heat...

 

[evvabeing]

Longshot lawyer candidate Ari Goldkind touts candid tax talk

So is he just running to make a point? When Galloway suggested this during their interview, Goldkind the lawyer raised an immediate objection.

"This is about becoming the mayor of a city I love and making an impact. I am not doing this to raise the discussion," he said. "People are realizing that I'm worth taking a look at. I am going to surprise this city."

http://news.ca.msn.com/local/toronto/longshot-lawyer-candidate-ari-goldkind-touts-candid-tax-talk

 

[evvabeing]

My wish list for 2018 Mayoral Election?

1) Ranked ballots
2) No debates Jan-Aug
3) Four debates only Sep-Oct

from a RaBIT campaign email...

Kathleen Wynne publicly released her "Mandate Letters" which explain the top priorities for each ministry. Her letter to Ted McMeekin, Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing, states the following:

"Your ministry’s specific priorities include undertaking a review of the Municipal Elections Act after the 2014 municipal elections. You will ensure that the act meets the needs of communities, and that it provides municipalities with the option of using ranked ballots in future elections, starting in 2018, as an alternative to first-past-the-post."

2014 Mandate letter: Municipal Affairs and Housing
Premier's instructions to the Minister on priorities for the year 2014

http://www.ontario.ca/government/2014-mandate-letter-municipal-affairs-and-housing

 

[salsa]

You guys can take off your tinfoil hats. Forum's main interest is running a public polling firm. The best way to do that, is to poll as accurately as possible. The best way to fail at that, is to publish false numbers. Why would Forum want to put its entire company on the line in order to influence a single mayoral election in a very unpredictable, convoluted sort of way?

Explain this:

A new poll from Forum Research suggests that most Torontonians would opt for a seven-stop LRT (51 per cent) over a three-stop subway (40 per cent) in Scarborough, but that most Scarborough residents (56 per cent) would be happier with the subway. Of course, the question respondents answered was “If both cost the same, which do you think should be built in Scarborough, a seven-stop LRT or a three-stop subway?”—it’s possible the numbers would have turned out slightly differently if the question had instead kicked off with “If we consider that the former will likely be significantly less expensive than the latter, and that the latter will almost certainly be dramatically more expensive than the former, which do you think should be built in Scarborough…”

http://torontoist.com/2014/09/extra...and-scarborough-residents-want-subways-maybe/

 

[expat]

+1. Although I'd go with one debate a week -- so, what? 7 or 8? Also, the planning of the debates has to be way, way better -- no more packing the house, shouting contests, etc.

my wish list starts with cutting the campaign down to 6 weeks, 8 weeks tops. this year-long campaign is madness.

 

[Greg Banks]

my wish list starts with cutting the campaign down to 6 weeks, 8 weeks tops. this year-long campaign is madness.

But..but...but...How would the 140 neighbourhoods in Toronto find out exactly what mayoralty candidates would do for their community without an all candidates meeting...I suppose two a day...70 days....10 weeks

 

[Silence&Motion]

I just wonder why a dozen other polling firms could give Tory a 20 point lead, but Forum would come up with a dead heat...

Forum's still giving Tory a 7 point lead. That's definitely not a dead heat. Mainstreet and Ipsos-Reid are likely using similar voting models (and I believe they both poll over the Internet, but I could be wrong).

We won't know whose model is best until election day. Either way, without any actual evidence of fraud, it's probably best to assume that any inaccuracies are the result of incorrect assumptions or bad sampling methods rather than some conspiracy to affect the election results.

 

[TonyV]

The one-month countdown to the great Ford-ejection starts today. Today !!!

 

[Greg Banks]

Forum's still giving Tory a 7 point lead. That's definitely not a dead heat. Mainstreet and Ipsos-Reid are likely using similar voting models (and I believe they both poll over the Internet, but I could be wrong).

We won't know whose model is best until election day. Either way, without any actual evidence of fraud, it's probably best to assume that any inaccuracies are the result of incorrect assumptions or bad sampling methods rather than some conspiracy to affect the election results.

Ever think that Forum's "biasing" maybe just because of the 416 two number exchanges answering across the city as an example "69" is a Beach/East York exchange you would expect to be heavily weigthed to Chow whereas the "65" exchange for lack of better description is Corso Italia an area you might think weighted in the Fords favour....

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Forum's still giving Tory a 7 point lead. That's definitely not a dead heat. Mainstreet and Ipsos-Reid are likely using similar voting models (and I believe they both poll over the Internet, but I could be wrong).

We won't know whose model is best until election day. Either way, without any actual evidence of fraud, it's probably best to assume that any inaccuracies are the result of incorrect assumptions or bad sampling methods rather than some conspiracy to affect the election results.

It's depends on the margin of error. If it's larger then two points then that close then all the other polls.