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How many non-incumbent winners will there be on council?

  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .
mjl08 said:
I see Bradford following Mary Margaret McMahon's approach, who endorsed Bradford, was loyal to Tory, and had her team work for Bradford's campaign. He'll vote 'progressive' on issues like parks and bike lanes, while supporting Tory on big platform issues like keeping taxes below inflation and unabashedly supporting the Scarborough subway.

Kellway would have been a far more reliable progressive vote, especially on issues like transit and housing. I am crossing my fingers that Bradford will 'see the light,' but his indebtedness to Tory might be too big to overcome.
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Isn't that pretty much as good as we can hope for these days? The reality is that any truly big ticket progressive issues will get swatted down by the Ford government anyways. I'm pretty convinced that Thug would have vetoed every single one of Keesmaat's election planks.
 
With fewer city councillors, do councillors get to assume the budgets and staff that would have been available under the 44 or 47 ward model?
 
mjl08 said:
With fewer city councillors, do councillors get to assume the budgets and staff that would have been available under the 44 or 47 ward model?
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All is to be decided. A report expected from City Manager dealing with office sizes, committees, community councils, boards etc etc. As noted earlier, reducing number of Councillors is the tip of the iceberg.
 
Thorns_Embrace said:
From the poll by poll results you can find here I am just going to do some analysis on ward 25 where McKelvie beat Shan
It was a really interesting race. I would like someone like to map this out. My read of the results is that Shan crushed his old ward. The interesting point it Shan really flopped south of the 401, and it cost him the race.
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That's exactly what happened. Also, Shan lost a bit of his old ward on the west, north of Highway 401.

adma said:
In a way, McKelvie was to 2018 what Di Ciano and Campbell were to 2014: the close seconds those two received in 2010 made them instant frontrunners in their old home turf.
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That too. No wonder McKelvie didn't put her name in as an appointee. She was in it to win it.

The city has been slow releasing the shapefiles for the poll locations and subdivisions. That's how I was able to make the maps after the 2014 election.
 
A few poll by poll observations:

University Rosedale - Layton won every poll, even in Rosedale, where Rowlands came very close in a few polls

Spadina Fort York - Vuong won a few polls in South Core; Cressy won everywhere else and crushed the Trinity Bellwoods/West Queen West area

Toronto Danforth - Chris Budo clearly ate into Mary Fragedakis's base in East York, helping Fletcher, who won every major poll south of Danforth

Beaches East York - Bradford won every major poll south of Kingston Road; Kellway was strongest in Crescent Town


Keep an eye on geographer Sean Marshall's blog where he will be mapping the poll-by-poll results for some key races.
 
Last edited:
Don't think this bit of news was mentioned for the post of trustee in Ward 1. Alexander Lisi ended up in fourth place, with 1,713. Harpreet Gill will be trustee, with 6,404. So much for name recognition, or maybe it was?

​
 
Thorns_Embrace said:
From the poll by poll results you can find here I am just going to do some analysis on ward 25 where McKelvie beat Shan
It was a really interesting race. I would like someone like to map this out. My read of the results is that Shan crushed his old ward. The interesting point it Shan really flopped south of the 401, and it cost him the race. This was a really interesting result that would have made more sense if McKelvie was an incumbent councilor but she isn't so I am surprised at the vote share she received(even though i was shilling for her through the election).
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Ask, and you shall receive…

https://seanmarshall.ca/2018/11/11/mapping-the-council-race-in-ward-25-scarborough-rouge-park/

Unfortunately the voter statistics aren’t out yet, which includes voter turnout by ward and by poll.
 
I've been slowly adding more poll results by ward. It's a slow process, doing it on my spare time. But so far, I've competed Ward 25, Ward 19, Ward 8, and Ward 7.

Had the 47 wards held, Mammoliti would have won re-election based on the poll results. Neethan Shan was really hurt by the ward changes as McKelvie had the geographic advantage, and while it's possible Carmichael Greb would have won in the 47 ward model as well, but at least Josh Mike Colle gave voters a clear front runner, so Colle won in CCG's old turf.

Brad Bradford's win might not have happened without Tory's very vocal support, including the robo-calls. That was another really close race.
 
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