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How the Tories pick their leaders

Like the U.S. presidential hopefuls, candidates can win the popular vote but still lose when it comes to electoral vote, thereby losing the election.

See link.

Anyone 14 and older who pays $10 to join the party is eligible to cast an online preferential ballot, indicating their first and second choices.

Each of the province’s 124 ridings is worth 100 points.

Here’s how it works: If a candidate receives 60 per cent of all Tory votes in a riding, they receive 60 points toward their tally.

It doesn’t matter if there are 100 PC members in a riding or 10,000 — each riding is as valuable as any other.

However, for ridings with fewer than 100 members, each votes counts as one point. A constituency with, say, 75 members would only award 75 points.

All that means is, like the U.S. presidential hopefuls, candidates can win the popular vote but still lose when it comes to electoral vote, thereby losing the election.
Click to expand...
 
If anyone is safe in this election, it’s downtown Liberal Toronto MPP’s. NDP voters will turn out in droves for the Liberals like they did when Hudak was a threat.

The NDP is going to be decimated this election.

While I won’t write off Doug Ford winning the election, Wynne is in a better position tonight. Had it been Elliott, Wynne would have almost certainly lost. With Ford, she now has a real contrast and a boogeyman to run against.

It’s hard to know until the campaign progresses but if Ford runs his campaign like the PCs ran this leadership race, I think Wynne will be re-elected. At the very worst, Ford will win the election but no way can he win a majority. It’ll be an embarrassing year for the PCs, the Liberals will box him in opposition and choose a new leader before triggering a new election.

But if I had to place a bet now, I’d say that this election looks a lot like the last one. An anybody but Ford movement from the left, centre and even right, propels the Liberals to another accidental majority.
 
Cho's flip in Malvern. And that happened with DoFo campaigning there. That should be a warning. The outer 416 is really not happy with the Liberals. If the 905 shares that sentiment....

I think people are really underestimating Ford. At their peril.
 
I think this reaffirms the need for the Libs in particular, but the NDP too, to address key populist talking points.

1) The most frivolous/annoying nanny-statisms.

- kill Drive Clean (does nothing anymore by any scientific standard, its a nuisance)
- Get the LCBO open on Sunday evenings.

Both incredibly easy to do, no net cost, just take some wind out of some sails.

2) Address perceived corruption

Not sure there is an easy answer on this one, esp. for the Libs, but something that is seen to reduce the role of 'big money' in politics would be a good seller

For the NDP, an easy move would be committing to reducing the donation limit which is still over 3k. Quebec is down near $100

3) Commitments that move the needle for people at roughly the median income or just below (the poor should get more, as a matter of good policy); but the need is to address those
who imagined they had more, worked for more, and feel like that's at risk or they're going backwards.

4) Let Dougie stick his foot in it; but don't be seen to engage in pile-ons. Making Doug the underdog plays to his strength. Let him sink his ship by himself.

Do not underestimate Doug. (feel free to despise him) LOL But smug arrogance would be a bad play here.
 
It’s not over!!

Elliott issued a statement saying that she’s not conceding because her campaign has observed serious voting irregularities. What a s%*t show! She’s going to fight Doug and the party, tying up even more precious campaigning time.

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Damn, I'm glad I have nothing to do with this grand adventure in political hackery. If it gets overturned in favour of Elliott then woe be to our ears for the shrieks of outrage from the Ford gang that we will collectively have to endure.

Should have stuck with that pervy dude after all.
 
MetroMan said:
If anyone is safe in this election, it’s downtown Liberal Toronto MPP’s. NDP voters will turn out in droves for the Liberals like they did when Hudak was a threat.

The NDP is going to be decimated this election.

While I won’t write off Doug Ford winning the election, Wynne is in a better position tonight. Had it been Elliott, Wynne would have almost certainly lost. With Ford, she now has a real contrast and a boogeyman to run against.

It’s hard to know until the campaign progresses but if Ford runs his campaign like the PCs ran this leadership race, I think Wynne will be re-elected. At the very worst, Ford will win the election but no way can he win a majority. It’ll be an embarrassing year for the PCs, the Liberals will box him in opposition and choose a new leader before triggering a new election.

But if I had to place a bet now, I’d say that this election looks a lot like the last one. An anybody but Ford movement from the left, centre and even right, propels the Liberals to another accidental majority.
Click to expand...

That was my fear. However the parallels between what this is shaping up to be and the Trump vs. Hillary contest are striking. Bumbling, folksy pocketbook issues chauvinistic male populist vs. the well oiled establishment machine, polished, refined, perfect-on-paper seasoned female politician.

Polls didn't predict a Trump electoral college victory either, just saying.
 
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