I always make a prediction every election and this one will be no different, albeit a painful one. Here's how I foresee tonight playing out...
PC-65, NDP-55, Lib-3, Green-1. So yes, a Doug Ford led PC-majority.
Why?
•If we’ve learned anything, these populists are always more popular than polling suggests, especially in these parts. Basically, people don’t want to admit they are choosing a lying, blowhard. But have no problem putting an “x” next to the piece of sh*t in private.
•The NDP will have done very well here, but not well enough. This will play out much like the federal election of 2011. In fact, the NDP may even win the popular vote giving us shades of Trump vs. Clinton. But their vote is too concentrated in urban Ontario and becomes very difficult to flip ridings elsewhere.
•The scare tactics and talk of Bob Rae ad nauseam worked. The NDP's momentum stopped around the time of the last debate and the PCs and Liberals effectively killed their chances of forming a government.
•The Liberals are still far too popular. Even though any scenario will only give them a handful of seats, one in five Ontarians will still walk into a voting booth today and vote Liberal, which leads to a whole host of ridings in the 905 and beyond flipping PC.
•People want change, but with Ontario’s economy humming along, they just don’t fear Ford enough. Most elevator talk is “let’s see what he does,” or “let him blow a few things up, it won’t be that bad.”
•About a quarter of the province’s seats are in the GTA's 905 and they mostly want Doug Ford, including on landslide levels in York Region (what's up my Italian brethren?) Unless the Liberal vote completely collapses here, we have Premier Doug.
•The under 35 vote is now larger than the Baby Boomer vote. They have ALL THE POWER to change this election, but I don't get the sense they are that interested. A few I talked to this morning said they were "too busy," or that "they all suck anyway" and won't be voting.
In conclusion, I’ve never seen someone presented to the voters so ill-fitted to lead Ontario, but here we are.
