W. K. Lis
Superstar
We've seen what happened when a MPP from the provincial riding of Nipissing decided to cut transit projects and spending province-wide in 1995.
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- Thread starter innsertnamehere
- Start date
We've seen what happened when a MPP from the provincial riding of Nipissing decided to cut transit projects and spending province-wide in 1995.
Hopkins123
Senior Member
Because Wynne from Don Valley West has done such a spectacular job on the transit file thus far. The Liberals' slow and piecemeal approach to transit expansion is precisely what's inviting the wolves to the door now.
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
Liberals Lead PCs Despite “People’s Guarantee”
Campaign Research’s Omnibus Poll is an online survey conducted among a sample of 1495 Ontario voters and consumers. Our most recent survey found that Ontario Liberal Party (OLP) leads over the Progressive Conservatives (PCs) in terms of voter intent despite the PC’s official launch of their election policy platform (OLP 35%, PC’s 34%). The Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) continues to trail both the OLP and PCs with 22% support of decided voters. Our latest study further indicated Ontarians’ intent to vote for the PCs decreased by 1% since November. The strongest supporters of the PCs are voters aged 55-64 as well as Ontarians 65 years of age and older (Age 55-64= 39%, 65+= 49%). Regionally, the greatest voter intent for the PCs came from the GTA (36%). The OLP’s strongest supporters are younger voters (Age 18-24= 49%, 25-34= 37%). Unsurprisingly, the OLP voter intent is strongest in Toronto (41%). It is also important to note that the gap that existed in the rest of Ontario in November (outside Toronto and the GTA) between the PC’s and the OLP has narrowed; in fact, the difference between the OLP and the PCs is only 1% in favour of the PCs (OLP= 34%, PCs= 35%).
Campaign Research’s Omnibus Poll is an online survey conducted among a sample of 1495 Ontario voters and consumers. Our most recent survey found that Ontario Liberal Party (OLP) leads over the Progressive Conservatives (PCs) in terms of voter intent despite the PC’s official launch of their election policy platform (OLP 35%, PC’s 34%). The Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) continues to trail both the OLP and PCs with 22% support of decided voters. Our latest study further indicated Ontarians’ intent to vote for the PCs decreased by 1% since November. The strongest supporters of the PCs are voters aged 55-64 as well as Ontarians 65 years of age and older (Age 55-64= 39%, 65+= 49%). Regionally, the greatest voter intent for the PCs came from the GTA (36%). The OLP’s strongest supporters are younger voters (Age 18-24= 49%, 25-34= 37%). Unsurprisingly, the OLP voter intent is strongest in Toronto (41%). It is also important to note that the gap that existed in the rest of Ontario in November (outside Toronto and the GTA) between the PC’s and the OLP has narrowed; in fact, the difference between the OLP and the PCs is only 1% in favour of the PCs (OLP= 34%, PCs= 35%).
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WislaHD
Superstar
Most PC voters are from the GTA?
Doesn't sound promising for them since GTA voters are most likely to flip Liberal come election time.
Doesn't sound promising for them since GTA voters are most likely to flip Liberal come election time.
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
The greatest voter intent for the PCs came from the GTA; not most PC voters. Nevertheless, that's not a good sign for them, as they don't even lead in the GTA.
OneCity
Senior Member
And the Liberals haven't even started with their promises. PC's have to be a tad concerned here.
Towered
Senior Member
Pretty shocking to see the parties neck and neck considering general voter fatigue with the Liberals and Wynne's staggering personal unpopularity. Most stunningly, Brown's surprisingly progressive platform hasn't given the PC's a boost. I'd be extremely frustrated and worried if I were them. Moving the party to the right with Hudak failed, and now moving to the left doesn't appear to be working either - what can they possibly do??
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
Mind that this is just one poll. Forum research claims the PCs have a 40% vote share, compared to the Liberals 25% vote share.
That said, we can't forget 2014, where the Liberals massively outperformed the poll projections. The race will only get tighter once the Liberals introduce their platform.
WislaHD
Superstar
I wonder if it is possible for us to follow in Alberta's footsteps with having the Liberals in power for decades despite apparent corruption, scandals and staggering unpopularity.
Well if all else fails, they can rename themselves as the Liberal Democrats.
I think conservative has increasingly become a dirty word for part of the population, especially in the GTA. If I were to guess why, it would be for some combination of factors, them being the damage of the Harris government, the Harper legacy, influence (/boogeyman) of openly homophobic and regressive social-cons in rural Ontario, and probably most unfortunately as it should not relate to us, as a backlash to Trump. We had more people interested in protesting the moving of the US Embassy to Jerusalem than we do in domestic politics.
innsertnamehere
Superstar
Forum trends strongly conservative out of all the pollsters - not to say that the poll above is any more accurate though.
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
Or an example closer to home: the Liberals seem to be repeating the 40 year reign of the Ontario PCs between the 1940s and 1980s.
Seems to me that what the Ontario electorate really wants the Liberal government, just without the scandals. The PCs might be able to eventually play that role, but that would mean disavowing their socially conservative elements and moving away from their fiscally conservative principles.
If they can't win in 2018 or 2022, I figure we might see a realignment of the parties, where the PCs move to the left, and their socially conservative members form their own party. This will be necessary because as the GTHA and (sub)urban Ontario population share continues to grow becoming less likely that Ontarians are ever going to accept a government with even a hint of strong social conservatism.
Northern Light
Superstar
I think your response is on point.
However, I would add to it that I think the greatest harm to the Liberals has come from disingenuousness. That is to say, when policies or actions don't align w/supposed character or stated goals.
Obvious examples here would be the flip on Hydro One privatization; the initial 'strong' stand against scandal and bad optics followed by defending hefty political donations and pay for access minister meet-ups; and stressing progressivism, while initially offering little but lip service (till the last 12 months).
Hypocrisy will drive people nuts faster than almost anything.
***
The pickle for the Conservatives lies in the choice of leader. First off, whatever Brown says now, he once, publicly made very socially conservative statements.
He didn't do this merely while in Ottawa, but as recently as the race to become Conservative leader.
Only after winning did he suddenly champion a carbon tax, seemingly decide that he was pro-choice and sex education and otherwise happy to support a moderate political manifesto.
While the manifesto is imperfect, it really is, on balance a reasonable'ish plan that a political moderate/centrist should be able to consider backing.
But if you don't believe the man (or woman) pitching it, because they are on the public record as having opposite views for many years and in recent years........
That could be a tough sell.
***
Also I heard a bit of him when out in the car one day on the CBC Radio noon-time call-in.
He sounded both very aggressive and very talking point'ish.
He just wanted to endlessly link Wynne to the Sudbury trial and avoided answering questions from the host.
I get the political motivation, but it didn't come off well, at least to me.
Hopkins123
Senior Member
In this political climate, we may never be able to get rid of the Liberals.
The standards set for the Conservatives are far too high while the Liberals get excused and forgiven for seemingly everything. The Tories are attacked for promising too little and not providing a fine-tooth explanation of how their promises are going to be funded ; meanwhile the Liberals swoop in with over promising and the media sells their platform as if its perfection to the masses.
Yeesh!
The standards set for the Conservatives are far too high while the Liberals get excused and forgiven for seemingly everything. The Tories are attacked for promising too little and not providing a fine-tooth explanation of how their promises are going to be funded ; meanwhile the Liberals swoop in with over promising and the media sells their platform as if its perfection to the masses.
Yeesh!
crs1026
Superstar
In this climate it's incredibly hard for the Conservatives to shed the alt-right/Mike Harris label. Even the smallest twitch will be magnified by the media and the other parties.
But then, it's still incredibly hard for the NDP to shed the label of being fiscally stupid and prone to excesses in the name of idealism. Nonetheless, they still capture respect for "caring" or "having noble intentions".
The Liberals manage to slosh back and forth in the middle.
I do think the Conservatives could capture the middle, but it would mean a level of utterly disciplined action in the public eye and a very deliberate shunning/ejection of some more extreme loyal members. It would take a pretty ruthless leadership to pull that off. The jury is still out on Mr Brown in that respect.
- Paul
But then, it's still incredibly hard for the NDP to shed the label of being fiscally stupid and prone to excesses in the name of idealism. Nonetheless, they still capture respect for "caring" or "having noble intentions".
The Liberals manage to slosh back and forth in the middle.
I do think the Conservatives could capture the middle, but it would mean a level of utterly disciplined action in the public eye and a very deliberate shunning/ejection of some more extreme loyal members. It would take a pretty ruthless leadership to pull that off. The jury is still out on Mr Brown in that respect.
- Paul
BurlOak
Senior Member
As soon as the Conservatives move to the middle, the Liberals jump to the left of the NDP and declare that the new middle.