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Bernier will be part of the two official debates and Scheer seems worried. He is attacking former GG David Johnston and accusing him of being a Liberal hack. I recall him being appointed by Harper...
 
mjl08 said:
Sept 16 Nanos poll:

Cons: 34%
Libs: 34%
NDP: 16%
Greens: 8%
Bloc: 4%


Click to expand...

In my corner of Scarborough Southwest I am seeing more green and blue than I am red and orange although it is quite early.

It reminds me of the more recent Jack Layton era NDP campaigns where the NDP starting to make inroads in Scarborough Southwest. It looks like we will see more support for the Green Party this year than the NDP.

Nationally, I think the Greens will play Kingmaker this year. The NDP is going to be obliterated and Jagmeet will be tossed as a result. The Green Party won't win the election but they may play spoiler.

The PPC reminds me alot of the Reform Party in that it is small but can do a significant amount of damage in the west. Who knows we may see a split on both the left and the right. Should that be the case we will end up with the Greens holding the balance of power.

My worst fear however is a three way split on the left and 2 way split on the right or worse a 3 way split on the left and no split on the right. The last thing that I want is a 1993 style election in favor of the PPC or Conservatives.
 
Richard White said:
In my corner of Scarborough Southwest I am seeing more green and blue than I am red and orange although it is quite early.

It reminds me of the more recent Jack Layton era NDP campaigns where the NDP starting to make inroads in Scarborough Southwest. It looks like we will see more support for the Green Party this year than the NDP.

Nationally, I think the Greens will play Kingmaker this year. The NDP is going to be obliterated and Jagmeet will be tossed as a result. The Green Party won't win the election but they may play spoiler.

The PPC reminds me alot of the Reform Party in that it is small but can do a significant amount of damage in the west. Who knows we may see a split on both the left and the right. Should that be the case we will end up with the Greens holding the balance of power.

My worst fear however is a three way split on the left and 2 way split on the right or worse a 3 way split on the left and no split on the right. The last thing that I want is a 1993 style election in favor of the PPC or Conservatives.
Click to expand...

I try not to read too much into signs. In 2015 in Toronto Danforth, the NDP had twice as many signs as the Liberals, but the Liberals eked out a win. I also heard that some campaigns "stagger" the distribution of their signs, especially closer to election day, to give a sense of "momentum."

I think Bill Blair is very safe in Scarborough Southwest.
 
Bernier's all-star candidate, Renata Ford, says she backed out of tonight's transportation debate because both her kids AND mother have come down with the flu AND she had a lot of paperwork for Elections Canada to deal with...
 
mjl08 said:
I try not to read too much into signs. In 2015 in Toronto Danforth, the NDP had twice as many signs as the Liberals, but the Liberals eked out a win. I also heard that some campaigns "stagger" the distribution of their signs, especially closer to election day, to give a sense of "momentum."

I think Bill Blair is very safe in Scarborough Southwest.
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Oh I agree. I have worked many campaigns where the riding has been plastered with my candidates signs but it never equates to votes.

As for Scarborough Southwest I would not be so sure. Billy boy is not that popular in the riding. He is a nice guy but politically he is a bit aloof.

I see the NDP or Greens playing spoiler here.The riding has gone red and orange since the days of Scarborough East and Scarborough West but I have seen more Green Party and Conservative signs that I have NDP or Liberal.
 
tiffer24 said:
Bernier's all-star candidate, Renata Ford, says she backed out of tonight's transportation debate because both her kids AND mother have come down with the flu AND she had a lot of paperwork for Elections Canada to deal with...
Click to expand...

I am curious to how see just how much of a Gong Show that the PPC turns out to be this year. Their brand of far-right conservatism may prevail in Alberta leading to a ruckus in the house.

As I said before, they strike me like the Reform Party of the 1990s with regards to their immigration policy amongst other things. This COULD appeal to Ford Nation and Alberta along with Quebec.

That being said they are racist, and extreme in their views.

The problem is that after years of failed immigration policy by the liberals relating to migrants and easing immigration there is pent up rage withing the populus which could be exploited by the PPC.

I know more than a few people who are concerned with the ability of people to get immediate health care among other taxpayer funded benefits upon being given permanent residency. Those same people are concerned about the ease with which people can sponsor their relatives in order for them to live here.

The point I am trying to make is that there is a pent up angst among some of the Canadian Population that MAY benefit the PPC.
 
I keep on hearing the Greens and NDP are "neck and neck," but all the recent polls have NDP considerably ahead, and mostly in their traditional mid teens level.


CBC Canada Poll Tracker


204610
 
Marcanadian said:
Nanos also has the CPC ahead at 35 points to the Liberals 34:

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYTJhNmM3ZWQtYjc5Mi00NTRmLTgyZWItODFlZDMyNTg5MjZiIiwidCI6IjJmMmY5NDEyLWY5YjktNDE0ZC1iMDBmLTc4NjJhMzk1YjQxOCIsImMiOjN9&pageName=ReportSection10
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I tend not to rely on polls. I used to do market research for a living and people will do anything to get off the phone.

The only polls that matter are the ones with an X.

However, we are looking at a minority if these numbers are correct. It would be interesting come election day to see how much of a split. It would be interesting if the Greens were the kingmaker in lieu of the NDP.

If the liberals win a minority it would be interesting to see if the form a coalition with the NDP and Green party to form a stable government.
 
Richard White said:
If the liberals win a minority it would be interesting to see if the form a coalition with the NDP and Green party to form a stable government.
Click to expand...
I'm voting Green. In my riding of Downtown East there's no point in voting anything but Liberal, but I want to help grow the Green's share of the popular vote. Party funding by % of vote was canceled in 2015, but my vote would still contribute to their size and legitimacy for future fights.
 
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