[Amare]

Del Duca is sky high in the polls

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It's not that the Liberals did anything right, because quite frankly they haven't (if you pick Del Duca as your leader it's self-explanatory why). The Liberals are gaining because Ford has completely mismanaged the pandemic by playing politics with every single matter. Not to mention clearly exposing his deference to private corporations on various affairs, and acting like a thug on virtually every other issue.

God help us all if Del Duca is riding sky high in the polls. We're not much better of if he ends up as a leader, let alone with a majority government.

 

[adma]

30-26-23 Lib-PC-NDP is hardly "sky high", except relative to where they were in '18. It's more a reversion to a mean (and with probable spillover from the Libs' federal counterparts).

And Horwath is also more a reversion to a mean--that is, "wild card" rather than "government in waiting". Mind you, she was a wild card going into 2018 as well.

 

[Admiral Beez]

And Horwath is also more a reversion to a mean--that is, "wild card" rather than "government in waiting". Mind you, she was a wild card going into 2018 as well.

Ford should be propping up Horvath at every turn, splitting the NPD LPO vote and assuring victory. McGuinty should have pushed for electoral reform in 2007, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Ontario_electoral_reform_referendum but these politicians never consider that they might be the ones the FPTP system kicks out.

 

[adma]

Ford should be propping up Horvath at every turn, splitting the NPD LPO vote and assuring victory. McGuinty should have pushed for electoral reform in 2007, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Ontario_electoral_reform_referendum but these politicians never consider that they might be the ones the FPTP system kicks out.

But if Ford gets a Hudak '14-style 31%, that's not necessarily enough to keep him in power unless the opposition splits just so perfectly overall and in individual seats. Plus, as I've offered over and again, who knows what kind of splitting on the *right* is afoot with Randy Hillier and everything.

Look at it this way: you *have* to allow for the possibility that after their '18 shellacking, the Libs might *not* be entirely up to the task of roaring back to victory w/Premier Del Duca in '22--but that it doesn't necessarily mean the PCs are going to get away with vote-split murder, particularly if there's sufficient numbers of voters determined to vote them out of office by any means possible. So, the wild-card element w/Horwath is simply through her already being there, leading the Official Opposition, with Official Party Status, and *if* the provincial Libs aren't completely "up to it", the NDP is there as backup for voters who want to "send a message". Though yes, I'd cautiously bank less on a Horwath majority than on some kind of minority/coalition deal. All I'm saying is that there's many means t/w victory, they come with a recognition that a good deal of the '18 PC vote is "parked", it's not necessarily fluid in a strictly bidirectional way, and even if we saw a result like 30-26-23 PC-Lib-NDP, that's hardly indicative of PC Majority II. But 30-26-23 Lib-PC-NDP is hardly the *Libs* roaring back to majority, either--at that point, they'd have to decide whether stopping Doug's agenda or stopping Andrea's agenda is the more desirable path to take.

I'm just telling it like it is; and that it's not so simple, never so simple, as splitting-the-left-and-electing-the-right, particularly when it comes to Parliament as opposed to individual ridings. And in this case, I'm addressing the quandary of a situation in Ontario, which on the *surface* of things plays beautifully into Doug Ford's hands: the Libs crippled, the NDP being in their eyes oh-so-easily gaslightable, etc. Complicated circumstances demand ample allowances...

 

[afransen]

Once it becomes clear that LPC is in striking distance of forming government, I expect NDP vote to waver and come over to get Ford out of office.

 

[adma]

Once it becomes clear that LPC is in striking distance of forming government, I expect NDP vote to waver and come over to get Ford out of office.

Well, again, which is like 2015 federally all over again. Except that the federal Libs didn't go into 2015 absent official party status, and Justin was far more of a "charismatic" known quantity than Del Duca presently is. (OTOH Del Duca has cabinet/governing experience which Justin lacked going into 2015, and the OLP is only one term out of power as opposed to the fed Libs' 3 terms in '15. So *they* have plusses.)

So re "once it becomes clear"--my point is, what if, despite present polling, it *doesn't* become so clear?

And I think you all are going to have to accept that even if the PCs are defeated in the end, there'll be seats they'll salvage through split opposition. Which they did even when at the losing end in '03, '07, '11 and '14. That's FPTP for you; and neutrally speaking, they're no different from the Libs or the NDP in that regard.

And finally, while I'm not claiming government-in-waiting status for her largely because, despite '18, the natural-third-party NDP pigeonhole's been hard to crack, I do find this tendency on this forum and elsewhere to overstate Horwath's negatives: the notion of her being a dreary and blah leader (a notion sometimes with an undercurrent of DoFo-nails-on-chalkboard-esque sexism), or that she's supposedly consistently underperformed expectations (when in fact, it's more the third-party pigeonhole, limited resources and lingering Rae memories that have weighed her party down relative to "expectations"--indeed, she *outperformed* initial expectations in 2018, even if she couldn't cross that final threshold to governance). That is, whether one likes it or not, she's still in *some* kind of allowance-grantable picture, perhaps as a kingmaker if not precisely as a premier-in-waiting. And unless Del Duca mania *really* goes like wildfire, she'll *probably* still retain a healthy-enough caucus in the event the Libs return to pole position or anywhere close, even if it's more of a '11 or '14-style "healthy enough"...

 

[christiesplits]

Well, again, which is like 2015 federally all over again. Except that the federal Libs didn't go into 2015 absent official party status, and Justin was far more of a "charismatic" known quantity than Del Duca presently is. (OTOH Del Duca has cabinet/governing experience which Justin lacked going into 2015, and the OLP is only one term out of power as opposed to the fed Libs' 3 terms in '15. So *they* have plusses.)

As noted, the biggest difference between newly crowned Trudeau and Del Duca is that one is very charismatic, and the other is not. I think the Ontario Liberals should have picked Coteau.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Well, again, which is like 2015 federally all over again. Except that the federal Libs didn't go into 2015 absent official party status,

Look at the federal Conservatives. Smashed down from majority government to two seats in 1993, then fractured into two right wing groups (Reform, PC), and seemingly looking to be forced into the political hinterland. Only to regroup under Harper and hold government for nine years, 2006-2015. Taking this example into account, I think the OLP, as the natural governing party will have to suffer through another two Ford or OPC (likely minority) governments, before they can seize power again. So we’re stuck with the OPC, if not Ford until at least sometime into 2024-2026.

 

[afransen]

Look at the federal Conservatives. Smashed down from majority government to two seats in 1993, then fractured into two right wing groups (Reform, PC), and seemingly looking to be forced into the political hinterland. Only to regroup under Harper and hold government for nine years, 2006-2015. Taking this example into account, I think the OLP, as the natural governing party will have to suffer through another two Ford or OPC (likely minority) governments, before they can seize power again. So we’re stuck with the OPC, if not Ford until at least sometime into 2024-2026.

Well, it is unusual for majority governments to only last one term, but it is possible if they screw up badly enough. The Ford government has been deeply unpopular for much of its time in office. The last election was really a 'throw the bums out' election. If Ford doesn't earn another term I would not be too shocked to see an LPO minority/majority government. Though I would say that outcome is also unearned by the LPO.

 

[adma]

Well, it is unusual for majority governments to only last one term, but it is possible if they screw up badly enough. The Ford government has been deeply unpopular for much of its time in office. The last election was really a 'throw the bums out' election. If Ford doesn't earn another term I would not be too shocked to see an LPO minority/majority government. Though I would say that outcome is also unearned by the LPO.

And on top of that, if you want to compare the provincial Libs in '18 to the federal PCs in '93, you have to remember that Doug Ford's leadership has been *much* more unpopular than Jean Chretien's leadership in the 90s.

 

[Admiral Beez]

And on top of that, if you want to compare the provincial Libs in '18 to the federal PCs in '93, you have to remember that Doug Ford's leadership has been *much* more unpopular than Jean Chretien's leadership in the 90s.

How do Ford’s popularity and chances in 2022 compare to Rae’s in 1995?

 

[adma]

How do Ford’s popularity and chances in 2022 compare to Rae’s in 1995?

Better, but somewhat by default, because the NDP was much more truly an "accidental victor" in '90 and didn't have the same natural-governing-party legacy. That is, it was a matter of a party out of its depth, rather than leadership out of its depth--indeed, for all his government's unpopularity, there was never any doubt that Rae himself was "statesmanlike", and his continued leadership probably saved the NDP from even worse wipeout in 1995. Whereas one has the feeling that swapping Doug Ford for someone like Christine Elliott would probably lift a heavy weight off the PCs' shoulders and ease the path t/w a second majority...

 

[kamira51]

My biggest issue about the liberal platform is the constant push for "investing in schools" I believe that the biggest issue with the school system in Ontario, is the separation of the catholic and public school board. So much money is wasted on these two separate systems(mostly on these CEO positions).

The whole school system needs to be completely redone in my opinion. But since I'm out of school, I don't really care about it.

Also abolish fptp(still waiting on Justin todo the same.

Instead of investing on education, invest in new provincial railway corridors that get people out of cars.

And add dental coverage.

Add most of those things and they have my vote 100%

 

[Northern Light]

My biggest issue about the liberal platform is the constant push for "investing in schools" I believe that the biggest issue with the school system in Ontario, is the separation of the catholic and public school board. So much money is wasted on these two separate systems(mostly on these CEO positions).

The whole school system needs to be completely redone in my opinion. But since I'm out of school, I don't really care about it.

Also abolish fptp(still waiting on Justin todo the same.

Instead of investing on education, invest in new provincial railway corridors that get people out of cars.

And add dental coverage.

Add most of those things and they have my vote 100%

On the operating side, I agree with you on education; though, the biggest savings wouldn't likely be local Education Directors, rather, it would be both school consolidations, between the 2 sets of boards. And similar consolidation of Board offices (one payroll department etc.).

It would also somewhat reduce the backlog of capital investments, as the combination Board would largely retaIn the larger, and better buildings.

****

That said, there is a critical backlog of capital investment in our primary and secondary schools. That's just on state-of-good-repair/capacity, never mind making the buildings entirely accessible and air conditioned.

We're well north of 15B on the province-wide backlog.

So there is room for new investment.

****

I might go further that simple consolidation though............Quebec and New Brunswick have both moved to abolish school boards entirely. The truth is, most decisions of any substance are already controlled centrally, we're spending an awful lot to pretend otherwise.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Convention coming up in October FYI