I feel like the reaction to Chow is perhaps a little more negative that she deserves, but I also understand it. I found her mayoral campaign to be very disappointing and do have a feeling of her being yesterday's candidate. And also worry about what her policy would be. But also at the same time, it's not like any of these candidates are exactly perfect and they all have their issues and basically every politician in the city and in the country and their policies has failed on the housing and affordability crisis.
But the negative reaction to her given her also coming in at the top of a poll is a bit out of proportion I think. Maybe she's not as weak a candidate as everyone thinks? JMM's reaction that it's obviously her ceiling and the reply to his tweet above throwing water on the idea of there needing to be an NDP candidate is also curious to me given that she is in front of every other candidate. Maybe the NDP base actually is meaningful and is a relevant voting block here?And why the assumption that this is her ceiling? Maybe this support will actually be pretty solid with no other significant left candidates to chip at it. And the previous election with her Tory and Ford is not ideal for capturing what she could have got if there wasn't the fear of Ford pushing people to Tory. Though fear of Saunders might be a similar dynamic. Who knows, maybe her support will fall, but it just seems weird that everyone's jumping to dismiss her but at the same time she's at the top of a poll before even announcing.
I remain skeptical though of her as a candidate (and all the candidates) before I see some realistic policy of how to move forward as a city. If she has good policy I'd consider voting for her, and also if her name recognition and public profile can make her the most likely candidate to go over the top (especially if the other risk is Saunders) I would be more inclined to vote for her as well.
Surprised to see Saunders so high and a bit fearful about the possibility of him becoming the candidate conservatives rally around + crossover support from more apolitical people who are concerned about safety. I think having a cop as mayor would not be a good thing on its own in general, but as others have pointed out Saunders isn't even a good cop by cop standards. And what are Saunder's policies or ideas or his direction for the city? I really hope as the city gets to know him more in the campaign that his support wanes. I am a bit concerned though especially with this split field and with the furor around public safety in the city over the last while.
Bailao is way lower than I expected. Maybe because she lacks city-wide profile. It seems like the DUI thing still sticks to her a bit, at least in internet comments. Not sure how much people broadly speaking remember that or will care when push comes to shove. Before this poll dropped I was about to predict she would win, but I'm not sure anymore. I think despite some issues I have with her that she'd be a much better mayor on the balance vs. Tory, Ford, Lastman, or potential Saunders, and could work effectively with others I think — so I could potentially vote for her if she has good policy and looks like she could win. But if the conservative vote goes to Saunders and if Chow is in the race and gets a decent amount of vote through name recognition where does that leave Bailao especially with a field crowded with some other candidates in the middle. Matlow, Bradford, and Hunter.
Speaking of Hunter this poll is pretty concerning for her if she resigns her seat to jump in here. I don't see what space she has to move with Chow and Bailao and Matlow in the race.
I'm not convinced Matlow can win and have my issues with him, but if he were to be the one to defeat Saunders and if he presents some good realistic policy I would vote for him. And I think his disruptive calling it like it is approach does have some things to say for it even if goes too far sometimes and might suit the public mood. 18 is pretty good here given that the other council candidates are considerably lower. Matlow's bullish approach may serve him well for getting awareness.
Saunders polling so high (and if that sustains) really changes the situation here in general. For almost any of the other candidates I would roll the dice and vote my conscience because it wouldn't be the end of the world if they became mayor, but I really do not want Saunders to win in a split field that would be terrible for the city. Will likely induce more strategic voting than we would have otherwise seen.
Penalosa's done here I think especially if Chow's in the race. His only real chance at significant growth was lack of a big candidate on the left. Hopefully he bows out and endorses another candidate at some point.
I think Bradford doesn't have a path here unless Saunders and Bailao implode. Why would conservative vote for him? And why would centrists and progressives vote for Bradford over Bailao? Bailao just seems like the better more viable candidate to me. Maybe he could build support through a campaign, but I just don't see what support is going to him instead of going to Bailao or others. I feel like he'll drop out and endorse Bailao at some point.
