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You do realize that Trump has a penchant for lying, right?

He is very cozy with the Heritage Institute, his SCOTUS appointments were driven by the organization, and huge swath of his previous administration is associated with it and helped draft Project 2025. They lied and said it wasn't the plan because they were not ready to say the quiet part out loud. Matt Walsh and Steve Bannon have both commented that now the election is over, they can openly say that Project 2025 is the agenda. Some of it may be watered down the GOP Senators and Representatives, but much of it won't be.

Honestly, let's enjoy it. The one great thing about the GOP sweeping across the board, with the Presidency, Senate, House and Governorships is that there will be no Democrats to slow them down. We're going to watch the GOP fever dream unleashed. And it will be spectacular.
 
We're going to watch the GOP fever dream unleashed. And it will be spectacular.
The House is still up for grabs, but yep. I wouldn't want to be a DACA or other illegal, trans-male athletic seeking an abortion in Trump's USA.
I am genuinely curious what's going to happen when a society that buys everything from Amazon, Walmart, etc realizes what a 60% tariff on Chinese goods looks like.
It will be a shocker for many. Myself, I find that I buy very little of anything now. I'm going to China and Taiwan in February, it will be interesting to see their take on Trump's first few weeks.

I think I'm done with doom scrolling the news and media. I've just deleted all my news and public affairs podcasts and added some feel good ones. I'm turning ostrich, I think.
 
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In 2016 after a couple of years of non-stop Rob Ford and Donald Trump, I had to dial back my news consumption and online arguing quite a bit. It was just too intense for too long.
 
The House is still up for grabs, but yep. I wouldn't want to be a DACA or other illegal, trans-male athletic seeking an abortion in Trump's USA.

It will be a shocker for many. Myself, I find that I buy very little of anything now. I'm going to China and Taiwan in February, it will be interesting to see their take on Trump's first few weeks.

I think I'm done with doom scrolling the news and media. I've just deleted all my news and public affairs podcasts and added some feel good ones. I'm turning ostrich, I think.
I'm not ready to check out, but I have heard some left leaning content creators saying they've seen a notable drop in subscribers (including paid subscribers) due to people checking out after the election. Not a good thing.
 
I'm not ready to check out, but I have heard some left leaning content creators saying they've seen a notable drop in subscribers (including paid subscribers) due to people checking out after the election. Not a good thing.
I’ve today ditched the NYT’s Opinions, The Daily, Matter of Opinion, Lately, The Decibel, The Indicator, All Things Considered, Economist and the British Time’s Ukraine the Latest. None of these are left leaning imo, just telling it like it is. But I don’t want to know. Also unrelated, but ditched Crime Junkie.

In their place I’ve subscribed to the Good Life Project, NPR’s Hidden Brain and Life Kit, Planet Money, Stuff You Should Know, BBC History Extra, Under the Influence, and Wiser Than Me. That last one is of Julia Louis-Dreyfus interviewing senior women - I just finished the Jane Fonda one. Very interesting and enjoyable.

I think this one time post-graduate of international relations is getting off the bus.
 
I’ve today ditched the NYT’s Opinions, The Daily, Matter of Opinion, Lately, The Decibel, The Indicator, All Things Considered, Economist and the British Time’s Ukraine the Latest. None of these are left leaning imo, just telling it like it is. But I don’t want to know. Also unrelated, but ditched Crime Junkie.

In their place I’ve subscribed to the Good Life Project, NPR’s Hidden Brain and Life Kit, Planet Money, Stuff You Should Know, BBC History Extra, Under the Influence, and Wiser Than Me. That last one is of Julia Louis-Dreyfus interviewing senior women - I just finished the Jane Fonda one. Very interesting and enjoyable.

I think this one time post-graduate of international relations is getting off the bus.
I think your average Trump voter would consider those mostly to be left-leaning.
 
I am genuinely curious what's going to happen when a society that buys everything from Amazon, Walmart, etc realizes what a 60% tariff on Chinese goods looks like.

The tariffs could take a huge bite out of Canada's tech darling Shopify, which dominates the drop shipping industry.
 
I am genuinely curious what's going to happen when a society that buys everything from Amazon, Walmart, etc realizes what a 60% tariff on Chinese goods looks like.

As am I.

I do, however, want to point out that the last round of Trump Tariffs largely remained in tact under Biden-Harris, and indeed, some actually increased.

So the impacts will be quite variable depending on the items in question.

As example, the tariff on washing machines from China currently sits at 50%

Likewise the tariff (increased by Biden just this year) on Solar Panels sits at 50% * (change won't actually show up in market til probably Q2 '25)

The tariff on Lithium-Ion Batteries is already 25%

While the one on electric cars from China is 100%

Semiconductors are also now 50%

****

Now most of the above examples are not the typical Amazon/Walmart purchase. I simply wanted to offer, that many tariffs coming into this year, or just recently adopted aren't far off the Trump promise.

Others, of course, are much further off.

****

The non-partisan Peterson Institute has modeled the impact of the Trump Tariffs as proposed.

That can be found here: https://www.piie.com/sites/default/files/2024-05/pb24-1.pdf

From the above:

1731165766455.png


The above is their key conclusion and looks at the impact of the changes, adjusting for any proposed tax cuts in Trump's plans, and breaks the impact down based on household income level.

Looked at in dollar terms, the estimated impact on a middle-income household is pegged at $1,700 per year.

Not an inconsequential sum.

However, if you think of those costs in weekly terms its just over $30.

Very little of the impact will be seen in the grocery sector, at the fuel pump or in housing costs, so it will be interesting to see how its 'read' by the American public.
 
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As am I.

I do, however, want to point out that the last round of Trump Tariffs largely remained in tact under Biden-Harris, and indeed, some actually increased.

So the impacts will quite variable depending on the items in question.

As example, the tariff on washing machines from China currently sits at 50%

Likewise the tariff (increased by Biden just this year) on Solar Panels sits at 50% * (change won't actually show up in market til probably Q2 '25)

The tariff on Lithium-Ion Batteries is already 25%

While the one on electric cars from China is 100%

Semiconductors are also now 50%

****

Now most of the above examples are not the typical Amazon/Walmart purchase. I simply wanted to offer, that many tariffs coming into this year, or just recently adopted aren't far off the Trump promise.

Others, of course, are much further off.

****

The non-partisan Peterson Institute has modeled the impact of the Trump Tariffs as proposed.

That can be found here: https://www.piie.com/sites/default/files/2024-05/pb24-1.pdf

From the above:

View attachment 610811

The above is their key conclusion and looks at the impact of the changes, adjusting for any proposed tax cuts in Trump's plans, and breaks the impact down based on household income level.

Looked at in dollar terms, the estimated impact of a middle-income household is pegged at $1,700 per year.

Not an inconsequential sum.

However, if you think of those costs in weekly terms its just over $30.

Very little of the impact will be seen in the grocery sector, at the fuel pump or in housing costs, so it will be interesting to see how its 'read' by the American public.
Exactly, I think that the exact tariff structure and extent will change as the administrative transition occurs and policy starts to be worked on, but selective tariffs to preserve industry and hedge against dumping and flooding are a matter of national security, especially in the drone age.

Otherwise, things like this can happen:

Chinese sanctions hit US drone maker supplying Ukraine​

Beijing’s move leaves California company rushing to find new battery providers
As first reported by the Financial Times, the ban has sent Skydio racing to find alternative battery suppliers. Although the company manufactures its drones in the US and sources many of the components that go inside of them from outside of China, Skydio had been wholly dependent on a single Chinese provider for batteries before October 11, when the country’s government imposed the embargo.
 
I am genuinely curious what's going to happen when a society that buys everything from Amazon, Walmart, etc realizes what a 60% tariff on Chinese goods looks like.
I've seen a lot of people saying stuff like this...
It's always about the economy, Americans remember that everything was cheaper under the first Trump term and inflation exploding under Biden.
So they go and vote for someone who's going to make things even more expensive. Leopards, faces, etc. The question is how many people will actually reflect on their choices or will they double down on their beliefs and continue to blame Democrats and outsiders?

The reality is that Trump didn't win because of anything Harris did or because of the economy. He won because he tapped into the misogyny (including among women) and xenophobia (including among immigrants - lots of drawbridge mentality happening) that is so prevalent in American society. He stoked fear and hatred of the other and people ate it up.
 
The reality is that Trump didn't win because of anything Harris did or because of the economy.

I very much disagree.

US Bankruptcies hit a 13-year high last year, and were up massively from 2020 and 2021.

2020 was, of course an outlier year, so lets set that aside:

1731183841066.png



You would be right to point out that the two lowest years were both under Biden; however, that was Covid Relief money, so they too are outliers.

The correct comparison then is to 2017-2019 under Trump.and certainly, the 2023 number jumps out.

****

A look at the inflation rate shows a very clear issue as well: (Credit embedded)

1731184067364.png



Now, the U.S. also had high wage growth over much of this period, but overall, inflation eroded earnings.

***

Poverty has also spiked.

Understanding the NY Post is not a great source, but they are not responsible for underlying data:

1731184605605.png




****

To be clear, I don't think that justifies or excuses voting for Trump, I'm merely stating that there is legitimate reason to be concerned about one's pocket book in much of the U.S.


He won because he tapped into the misogyny (including among women) and xenophobia (including among immigrants - lots of drawbridge mentality happening) that is so prevalent in American society. He stoked fear and hatred of the other and people ate it up.

Now we agree here, that scapegoating, fear mongering, hate promoting, and finger-pointing were definitely all strategies employed in the Trump campaign, and we agree they're disgusting.

But he's mobilizing angry people.

Yes, he's directing that anger in a self-serving and deeply disturbing way, but the underlying phenomenon of how people perceive their welfare really isn't his. Its merely what he has ruthlessly exploited.

Turning fear into hate is on him. But the underlying fear/anger........while stoked by him, wasn't caused by him.
 

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