[Electrify]

Not sure if this should be in one of the other Ford threads, but I do feel it has enough merit to deserve its own thread. Mods feel free to move it at your own discretion.

It appears much of Ford's support has come from the outer parts of the city, areas that some have labeled as conservative suburbs. Thing is, over the past decade Toronto has been a Liberal and NDP stronghold. Over numerous elections, the Conservatives have been unable to score a seat here, provincially or federally. In addition to this, Toronto has elected a very left mayor over the previous two elections. While there was a desire for change, to go straight to Tea Party level of policy seems very much out of character.

So where is all this desire for radical change coming from? Well, as I mentioned earlier it apparently is coming from the post-war areas of the city: Etobicoke, North York, and Scarborough. These areas of the city have seen highest amounts of new Canadians moving into them over the past decade. Many of these people were of a higher class in their old countries, so they didn't rely on what little social blanket that was provided there. Many come from places where old world beliefs are strong, especially regarding homosexuality. And many have developing English skills, which means they are more likely to get their news from easy to read sources like The Toronto Sun, and then graduate to sources like The National Post which further enforces right wing ideas.

Now, as we all know Ford has been vocal towards immigrants during this campaign, so why would they vote for him? Well as mentioned many of these immigrants were successful in their home countries, they've made it here. They may feel less empathetic towards others who are immigrating recently, especially those who are coming as refugees when they had to work so hard to get here themselves.

NOW I AM NOT ANTI-IMMIGRANT NOR DO I WANT THIS THREAD TO BE VIEWED AS BEING ANTI-IMMIGRATION! I am trying to explain such a radically hard shift to the right. If anything, I blame neo-conservative media outlets for blindly supporting a candidate who's numbers do not add up while packaging their message towards those with limited English skills, and for left-leaning media for not countering this with an easy to digest source for news coverage.

 

[RC8]

Most immigrants I've met in the outskirts of Toronto (Mississauga and Etobicoke mostly) have been disgustingly conservative, both fiscally and socially (but especially socially).

I remember this Sikh girl, one of the first people I met when I arrived here 2 years ago for university... she is not allowed to date any 'non-brown' people, her father physically abuses of her mother, in her family they look down on poor people and homeless persons, and her hobby was 'shopping'. Her father worked as a truck driver here, even though he holds an Indian university degree. Every single friend of hers was also a sikh conservative, etc, etc. She lived in Brampton.

All in all not too different (slightly worse, maybe) than what you'd expect from your typical white trash redneck family... except for the father's university degree.

The problem is that if I stand up against the beliefs of white conservatives I usually get a debate going on that leads to greater understanding and more liberal views in the long term. When I stand up against the beliefs of sikh, muslim, hindu, tamil, or whatever immigrants who hold backwards conservative values filled with irrationality and downright racism and homophobia... well, I'm the one who's labeled a racist and the argument is over.

I think that this is a BIG Toronto issue. We need to start being equally critical of immigrants and locals, or we'll just let a bastion of unquestioned conservatives further influence the values of Toronto's next generations.

 

[The_Waffler]

Even simpler theory.. the so-called silent majority has grown tired of being taxed, then seeing their money pissed away.

 

[GraphicMatt]

I think the results will show a large downtown contingent voted for Ford too - mostly older people. This is a city-wide thing that I think will be really hard to pin down.

My working theory is that it's baby boomers - older parents who maybe saw a fiscal hit during the recession and are looking for someone to blame. And government, made up of people with stable jobs and pensions and other things that are as rare as blue moons in the private sector, are an easy target. They vividly remember a time when they paid much less for the same basic services they receive today. This is magnified in the suburbs where costs to deliver services is getting higher and infrastructure is way more expensive to build than it is in more concentrated downtown areas.

 

[RC8]

Even simpler theory.. the so-called silent majority has grown tired of being taxed, then seeing their money pissed away.

The silent majority of the suburbs, perhaps. The areas of the city with higher densities all voted against him. In other words, those who have to experience living in the actual city of Toronto and not on driveways and walmarts far far away, would have much preferred having a different major.

 

[Simple Man]

So it begins from the left as does from the right, when something goes wrong the immigrants are at fault.

You radical lefties are just as bad as radical conservatives.

You both are idiots...


Fords win is based off his message

Also, what about that Smitterman was a waste of a city politician and had a terrible run for office ??? Politics is a zero-sum game, if you are not doing well the other guy benefits.

 

[RC8]

I think the results will show a large downtown contingent voted for Ford too - mostly older people. This is a city-wide thing that I think will be really hard to pin down.

My working theory is that it's baby boomers - older parents who maybe saw a fiscal hit during the recession and are looking for someone to blame. And government, made up of people with stable jobs and pensions and other things that are as rare as blue moons in the private sector, are an easy target. They vividly remember a time when they paid much less for the same basic services they receive today. This is magnified in the suburbs where costs to deliver services is getting higher and infrastructure is way more expensive to build than it is in more concentrated downtown areas.

It'd be interesting to see, but I really don't think that in wards where the likes of Mike Layton and Adam Vaughan got so easily elected you'd find a lot of Ford supporters.

 

[Simple Man]

he still got anywhere from 25-40% of the vote in the Downtown wards, which is very very impressive.

One guy said that he was in a NDP ward, and Ford got like 37% of the vote.


So it was not all homophobic Tamils and Indians in the North West and Northeast of the city.

 

[RC8]

So it begins from the left as does from the right, when something goes wrong the immigrants are at fault.

You radical lefties are just as bad as radical conservatives.

You both are idiots...


Fords win is based off his message

Also, what about that Smitterman was a waste of a city politician and had a terrible run for office ??? Politics is a zero-sum game, if you are not doing well the other guy benefits.

Just to clarify, in my post nowhere do blame immigrants for Ford's election. Blaming Smitherman's campaign makes a lot more sense.

The fact that many immigrant colonies have contributed to large parts of the GTA developing more conservative values is a fact, however.

 

[gristle]

Even simpler theory.. the so-called silent majority has grown tired of being taxed, then seeing their money pissed away.

Toronto has the lowest tax rate of the GTA. Taxes are "high" in some parts of the city due to land values. Do you view high land values as a bad thing, or MPAC assessments? If you dislike the latter, take it up with the province.

Ford (and you, by extension) have never clearly expressed how money is being "pissed" away.

The Fordian freak-out over councillor expenses might result in a city savings of possibly a million dollars (possibly). Imagine that, a million dollars against a budget of billions of dollars. A truly impressive promise - and one that will be quickly consumed by an increase to the policing budget that Mr. Ford has promised.

 

[Eug]

I still haven't seen a map showing the Ford vs. Smitherman voter percentage per ward.

her father physically abuses of her mother

Is he conservative, or is he just an asshole?

We need to start being equally critical of immigrants and locals, or we'll just let a bastion of unquestioned conservatives further influence the values of Toronto's next generations.

There was a ruling in Quebec where a Chinese husband got a light sentence for stabbing his wife, because the judge thought it best to consider cultural differences. Not surprisingly, the Chinese community there condemned the judge for not enforcing the law to the max for this violent crime.

The silent majority of the suburbs, perhaps. The areas of the city with higher densities all voted against him. In other words, those who have to experience living in the actual city of Toronto and not on driveways and walmarts far far away, would have much preferred having a different major.

Well, I didn't vote for Ford, but I can fully understand those who did. And my formative Toronto years were all downtown. Right smack downtown actually. (I owned a townhouse near Front and Bathurst.)

It's no surprise that Smitherman also promoted fiscal restraint.

Toronto has the lowest tax rate of the GTA. Taxes are "high" in some parts of the city due to land values. Do you view high land values as a bad thing, or MPAC assessments? If you dislike the latter, take it up with the province.

Taxes should reflect the cost of providing services, not just land value. Toronto has the lowest tax rate BECAUSE land values are the highest, but many argue the mill rate could even be lower… and I agree.

 

[Chuck]

I don't see a reason to over analyze Ford's victory. The "gravy train" that formed the basis of his campaign targeted wasteful spending, abusing of the system, sole sourcing of contracts to city unions, inefficiencies, and lack of transparency. Regardless of whether those ideas are true or not, they have nothing to do with right versus left wing politics. The people of Toronto were simply fed up, or perhaps led to believe that they should be fed up, and Ford simply represented change.

I'm quite certain that next election, Toronto will remain solidly Liberal with a smattering of NDP. Mike Harris cut spending just because. Ford will cut spending by finding and trimming actual fat.

Although I still think that Smitherman would have been a better mayor, I really don't think that Ford was elected because people are shifting toward the political right.

 

[adma]

Once again, to reflect Urban Toronto's biases--put it this way...

SmitherPants = "architecture".

Ford = "design/build".

"Architecture" is what the chattering class talks about; and it's the subject of oh so many UT threads. By comparison, "design/build" tends to be treated by the designwise chattering class as a malformed leper.

Yet, I suppose, the marketplace can't be wrong. When it comes to what "real" people actually choose: design/build rools, architecture drools.

So, I hereby propose that in terms of UT, all manner of grotesque monster home, teardown, EIFS job, etc in Toronto be referred to as "FatFvckitecture". And in fact, that'd be a more potent critique than by simply labelling Ford a fat fvck (yawn).

If someone can start up a "FatFvckitecture" (photo?) thread, it'd be appreciated.

 

[LowPolygon]

http://www.nydailynews.com/money/20...t_people_make_global_warming_a_lot_worse.html

 

[CityPainter]

My personal off-the-cuff non-expert and unoriginal theories:

- Ford's core base skews older male suburban, and the anti-Ford base skews younger urban. Obviously these are both generalizations but I think this is a fair description of the core base for each group. Older suburban people statistically vote in larger numbers than younger people, who tend to be more inward focused for many reasons. So while almost all Ford's supporters voted for him, many of those who disliked him failed to be motivated enough to vote for an alternative. So by that logic, even a 50/50 split on these two groups would have lead to a Ford victory.

- People voting for Ford were doing exactly that: voting FOR something they believed in. Many others disliked Ford but there was no one alternative they could really rally around, and "anyone but Ford" isn't really the sort of slogan that energizes people. People who are voting for something tend to be much more engaged and motivated than those who are voting against something. I think this is the same effect we saw in the 2008 US election, where Obama's supporters were enthusiastic, but McCain's supporters were ambivalent and produced a lower turnout even though many disliked Obama. Essentially, my theory is that positive energy brings people out, while negative energy causes some to recoil from the whole process and not bother voting at all.

- Finally, and most simply, Ford had a clear strong simple message that people could understand, and many liked it. Even those who aren't generally that engaged with GTA politics could catch a 2 minute clip on CP24 and understand exactly where he was coming from. And many thought his soundbites were good. Whether his message is based in any sort of reality and whether he can implement his ambitious plans over the next few years is what remains to be seen. What scares me most is not so much that I disagree with Ford's politics, it's that his ideas don't seem to be all that realistic when faced with any sort of scrutiny. Cutting down the city's revenue streams (all those taxes everyone hates) while eliminating staff and simultaneously improving service across the board sounds counter-intuitive, and I've yet to see that logic gap adequately explained.