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TAS said:
I had only heard Trump say that the US doesn't need Canada's lumber, or cars, or dairy, but wasn't hearing anything about oil and gas. Well, now oil and gas has been added to that list.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1877532798350930324

This seems to suggest otherwise.

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Well, our feminist PM had better stay away for sure. Ford and Smith have done more in the last 2 weeks then JT has done. When he ran down to Florida to meet Trump, that was sure a waste of our tax dollars. As I said before, JT and the Liberals time is up. If tariffs go ahead and our economy gets crushed, at least we will have more taxes, deficits and debt to worry about. Just rolls up those sleeves Justin, and get'er done.
 
David A said:
Isn't that just a typical hardball negotiating tactic, say you really don't need something to rattle the seller and put them off balance so they hopefully offer you better terms or concessions?

Well it seems to be working with Canada, he has a lot of people in this country very rattled.
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It's a hardball negotiating tactic for buying a used Ford Taurus.

For international diplomacy, all it does is sour public opinion of the party you're trying to negotiate with. With a looming election, ,candidates will want to project strength against the foreign would-be invader. And these negotiations involve reams of data, so we know full well that he does desperately need the Taurus.

Not only is the Taurus no longer for sale, but we're gonna' put a soup can muffler on it and sell it to your neighbour for half price.
 
TAS said:
I had only heard Trump say that the US doesn't need Canada's lumber, or cars, or dairy, but wasn't hearing anything about oil and gas. Well, now oil and gas has been added to that list.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1877532798350930324

This seems to suggest otherwise.
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Oil production by province:
1736524610456.png

Might as well label that chart "US Crude Imports from Alberta".
 
Correction as well.

NWT accounts for less than 0.1% of total Canadian crude oil production.

In 2023, natural gas production in NWT was 4.9 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) . This represented less than 0.1% of total Canadian natural gas production.

But still Alberta is the lions share.
 
Whattagame said:
It's a hardball negotiating tactic for buying a used Ford Taurus.

For international diplomacy, all it does is sour public opinion of the party you're trying to negotiate with. With a looming election, ,candidates will want to project strength against the foreign would-be invader. And these negotiations involve reams of data, so we know full well that he does desperately need the Taurus.

Not only is the Taurus no longer for sale, but we're gonna' put a soup can muffler on it and sell it to your neighbour for half price.
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For the most part, there are not that many other customers for our oil and gas although the Trans Mountain pipeline does give us more options than before.

But the pipeline system to the US and their refineries are also integrated specifically to process Canadian oil and gas. So if he puts a tariff on our oil and gas there will be a noticeable increase in US gas prices and we know how cranky people in the US get when that happens. It will be politically dangerous and some will start to turn on him.

So it sort of seems like a MAD (mutually assured destruction) situation, a threat it would not be in his interests to carry out.
 
David A said:
For the most part, there are not that many other customers for our oil and gas although the Trans Mountain pipeline does give us more options than before.

But the pipeline system to the US and their refineries are also integrated specifically to process Canadian oil and gas. So if he puts a tariff on our oil and gas there will be a noticeable increase in US gas prices and we know how cranky people in the US get when that happens. It will be politically dangerous and some will start to turn on him.

So it sort of seems like a MAD (mutually assured destruction) situation, a threat it would not be in his interests to carry out.
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If they actually decide to go ahead with the tarriffs, Energy East should be back on. Refining domestic crude at the Irving refinery (and possibly new projects) may become necessary as Eastern Canada would have some of their supply cut off. It would force us to become more self-sufficient with a commodity for which it's already more economical to do so, and we'd be able to export excess across the Atlantic at a premium.

My view of the economics of that project may be outdated (and please correct me if I'm wrong), but I feel that this continues to be one of the most obvious projects that Canada should move forward with.
 
Whattagame said:
If they actually decide to go ahead with the tarriffs, Energy East should be back on. Refining domestic crude at the Irving refinery (and possibly new projects) may become necessary as Eastern Canada would have some of their supply cut off. It would force us to become more self-sufficient with a commodity for which it's already more economical to do so, and we'd be able to export excess across the Atlantic at a premium.

My view of the economics of that project may be outdated (and please correct me if I'm wrong), but I feel that this continues to be one of the most obvious projects that Canada should move forward with.
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I’d say your view of the economics are wrong. I’m not even sure energy east wasn’t a stalking horse for keystone xl to be honest. At the end of the day I just don’t see an appetite from producers to make the type of commitment energy east would need and then the east coast just isn’t a great market for our crude in my opinion. It’s gonna be a lot of heavy out on the Atlantic without a lot of heavy destinations to get to.

Irving isn’t a big enough draw to justify the project, not even close. I didn’t like that project back then and I like it a lot less now. Kitimat is probably the next best option and I don’t see any chance someone tries that either. My take remains that the tariffs will not ultimately affect oil transportation to the us for any length of time at all. After that you will see small expansions such as Enbridge and TMX increasing flows to match what the producers are willing to do. They also don’t have much interest in massive expansion of their own production.
 
Oilguy said:
I’d say your view of the economics are wrong. I’m not even sure energy east wasn’t a stalking horse for keystone xl to be honest. At the end of the day I just don’t see an appetite from producers to make the type of commitment energy east would need and then the east coast just isn’t a great market for our crude in my opinion. It’s gonna be a lot of heavy out on the Atlantic without a lot of heavy destinations to get to.

Irving isn’t a big enough draw to justify the project, not even close. I didn’t like that project back then and I like it a lot less now. Kitimat is probably the next best option and I don’t see any chance someone tries that either. My take remains that the tariffs will not ultimately affect oil transportation to the us for any length of time at all. After that you will see small expansions such as Enbridge and TMX increasing flows to match what the producers are willing to do. They also don’t have much interest in massive expansion of their own production.
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Quite possible.

Though, regarding production expansion, the majors are expanding their production via M&A. At some point, that option will be tapped out. If market access allows, actual growth in the sector may be possible, and shareholders will likely demand it.
 
MacLac said:
3 of the worst people on the planet……

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The resource sector is the most important wealth generator for Alberta and Canada. Alberta has the 3rd largest reserves of O&G in the world and despite many people here calling O&G a "sunset" industry (which it is not) this industry is a massive source of revenue for Canada. Premier Smith is being a diplomat and using diplomacy to ensure this revenue will continue - she is doing her job. Revenues from O&G are so important to help generate actual wealth and provide a good standard of living for Albertans and Canadians - Trudeau loves hiring government workers but the government does not generate wealth. What is Trudeau doing? What are his dimwit cabinet ministers doing? They are busy going on Liberal friendly MSM like CNN and CTV embarrassing themselves.
 
Whattagame said:
Quite possible.

Though, regarding production expansion, the majors are expanding their production via M&A. At some point, that option will be tapped out. If market access allows, actual growth in the sector may be possible, and shareholders will likely demand it.
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I don’t know, I don’t see any producer even whispering about a new base plant or upgrader and I don’t think investors would reward that. I see small incremental expansions and debottlenecking projects that take advantage and maximize existing infrastructure.

That said after 2.5 decades in this industry all I know is to expect things I never expected.
 
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