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The NDP needs a net pick-up of six seats in the next election to have a clear majority. Not saying that that'll be easy, but these redrawn boundaries could make a big difference. Calgary (where the NDP now has 14/26 seats) will still be the big battleground.
 
Calgary and Edmonton seat change is +4 while rest of Alberta is -2, following the trend of recent redistributions. Rural areas still overrepresented, but this report bodes well for Albertans.
Did they end up blending rural and urban ridings? If so, the Edmonton & Calgary pickups could still give more weight to the rural vote.
 

 
The NDP needs a net pick-up of six seats in the next election to have a clear majority. Not saying that that'll be easy, but these redrawn boundaries could make a big difference. Calgary (where the NDP now has 14/26 seats) will still be the big battleground.
Somehow I doubt Smith will be as popular if oil remains around $60, as opposed to over $100 around the time of the last election. I don't believe she will be able to buy or spend her way out of her problems next time.
 
While the report is still vulnerable to politics, looks like Canmore, Spruce Grove, Beaumont, Cochrane and Okotoks got the brunt of rurban redistributions. Medicine Hat, Fort McMurray, and Airdrie didn't get back their urban ridings from the last redistribution.

The biggest changes for Edmonton is Enoch will be joined into the urban ridings, Edmonton- Riverview is being cut and split between Glenora and Strathcona, and two new ridings in the deep south.
 
While the report is still vulnerable to politics, looks like Canmore, Spruce Grove, Beaumont, Cochrane and Okotoks got the brunt of rurban redistributions. Medicine Hat, Fort McMurray, and Airdrie didn't get back their urban ridings from the last redistribution.

The biggest changes for Edmonton is Enoch will be joined into the urban ridings, Edmonton- Riverview is being cut and split between Glenora and Strathcona, and two new ridings in the deep south.
Somewhat like other provinces, in Alberta big cities lean a certain way and rural areas another, so the battle again may be partly fought in the suburban areas. It was a disappointment last election that the NDP could not do better in places like Morinville and other communities close to Edmonton.
 
Somehow I doubt Smith will be as popular if oil remains around $60, as opposed to over $100 around the time of the last election. I don't believe she will be able to buy or spend her way out of her problems next time.
I generally stay pretty open-minded about the UCP's re-election chances, but I don't see them bouncing back from their handling of the teacher strike.
 
Unifying Banff and Jasper is really good (and pleasantly surprising to me). Jasper votes very progressively but is swamped by deep conservative votes in the rest of its constituency. It will have a lot more kinship with Banff and Canmore voters and should help Sarah Elmeligi's re-election chances.
 
Kyle Hutton has transposed the 23 election onto the proposed new ridings. Results in a 48-41 split in favour of the UCP. Im not sure how reputable this fellow is however.

https://bluntobjects.substack.com/p/alberta-interim-boundaries-transposition

So for the NDP to form a government they would need to flip 4+ seats. Most vulnerable UCP holdings are the Edmonton bedroom communities, suburban Calgary, and Lethbridge/Red Deer.

I like to think that the UCP's governing, particularly their handling of the teachers, strike has angered AB voters enough to kick them out. But I have been disappointed before.
 
I fear that voting in Alberta is an entrenched thing. Many people don't look at policies or what a party stands for; they look at the colour. My pappy has always voted blue, so has my grandpappy before him, and now so do I, and thus it shall be in perpetuity. I hope I'm wrong.
 
Kyle Hutton has transposed the 23 election onto the proposed new ridings. Results in a 48-41 split in favour of the UCP. Im not sure how reputable this fellow is however.

https://bluntobjects.substack.com/p/alberta-interim-boundaries-transposition

So for the NDP to form a government they would need to flip 4+ seats. Most vulnerable UCP holdings are the Edmonton bedroom communities, suburban Calgary, and Lethbridge/Red Deer.

I like to think that the UCP's governing, particularly their handling of the teachers, strike has angered AB voters enough to kick them out. But I have been disappointed before.
I haven't check the accuracy of this, but what a public service it is to do this kind of thing! Gold star to him.
 

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