[darwink]

Will all come down to whether polling of the Calgary sample is any good or not. The difference between the NDP in the low 20s or high 30s seatwise. Are the red spreads closer to reality, or are the purple, or somewhere in between. With it bouncing so much, I have to take it as differences between pollsters, not the electorate moving at all.

In my office pool I predicted a bare majority government just for fun. Predicting a UCP majority and being right won't get you kudos. But predicting anything else and being right will be remembered

 

[JonnyCanuck]

NDP have definitely closed the gap, particularly in Calgary. Unfortunately, they have created 'fear-mongering' (i.e the UCP is going to change healthcare for the worse; the UCP are bad for minorities etc etc); and distraction away from the more important issues facing this province.
I predict a UCP minority which would not be a bad thing.

 

[darwink]

NDP have definitely closed the gap, particularly in Calgary. Unfortunately, they have created 'fear-mongering' (i.e the UCP is going to change healthcare for the worse; the UCP are bad for minorities etc etc); and distraction away from the more important issues facing this province.
I predict a UCP minority which would not be a bad thing.

Yeah. It has been super interesting. Here are the available regional breaks from recent polls. Given the expanded margins of error of the smaller sample sizes, most of these are in the margin of error. Important to note, for Angus Ried and Ipsos, Calgary is the CMA, this map:

Pollara provided these maps of their split:

If you think about it, and integrate the results in your head, you can see that Calgary proper is probably tighter than the headline numbers suggest. Pollara's split between the city and region shows that the voting patterns are not the same. Angus Ried and Ipsos have them close while including a good chunk of not Calgary. The informed guess that results for me is that Calgary is entirely in toss up territory.

The polls:

Also interesting: if you dive into the polls, women are much more likely to be undecided, and half of those undecided women say they would never support the UCP. So if they show up at the polls all of the polling is basically shot - Calgary goes orange, and we could end up in an unstable minority government, unless the Alberta Party can win 3 seats. Otherwise, it could be a thin majority for either side, though I have trouble counting ridings to get the NDP above 42 seats.

In the last what I would call province wide votes (humour me here), the PC leadership race in 2011 (since you could walk up and vote by buy a membership on the spot, and every riding had in person voting stations), the 2012 provincial election, and the 2015 provincial election, women turning out at decisively higher numbers (what a former colleague called spontaneous self organization) tilted the races big time. It happened before, and can happen again.

 

[UrbanWarrior]

Good god, the result is worse than my most pessimistic projections. Already looking into jiu jitsu classes so I can defend myself and my friends from the inevitable increase of emboldened bigots out to hate crime visible and sexual minorities for being who they are. This populist bullshit is getting to be too much.

 

[JonnyCanuck]

The UCP did not win with a populist agenda. They won on a pro-jobs, pro-pipelines, pro-investment message. In other words a pro-Alberta agenda.

Whatever right wing votes they may have attracted along the way ..... they are in the minority. Just like the perceived right wing elements in the party ...they are in the minority! Whatever right-wing agenda they may have had, will not result in policy or laws passed. Unlike Trump, that is not what the UCP ran on, and is not what Albertans as a whole would accept.

 

[GoVertical]

I feel your pain Chad, yet I know of staunch LGBTQ conservatives who most likely are more concerned with jobs than social issues, and realize that this whole election was about the economy as stupid as that is. We'll see what skeletons come out of the closet now and how long he lasts as leader. History sure has a way of repeating itself in this province.

 

[Silence&Motion]

The one upside to this election is that it will now become obvious that Kenney's "pro-jobs, pro-pipelines, pro-investment ... pro-Alberta agenda" was all just bluster and not an agenda at all. No matter how much he rants against BC and the Feds, there's no bringing back the oil boom. But the well-to-do residents of Upper Mount Royal thank all the out-of-work Albertans for voting to give them a big tax cut. When they're investing that tax cut in a second vacation home in Arizona, they'll be sure to raise a glass to everyone in Drayton Valley still patiently waiting for Papa Kenney to get their jobs back.

Meanwhile, while they may be defeated, the NDP remains a strong opposition party. They've successfully transitioned Alberta into a two-party province. Their reign has offered Albertans an alternative to the UCP's "boom town economics". When corruption or lack of results eventually sinks the UCP, the NDP will be in a position to make a comeback.

 

[GoVertical]

I wonder how long it will take the "United" conservatives to break up? Still glad that NDP were able to hang on to a few seats in Calgary and hopefully one in Lethbridge.

 

[Social Justice]

Good god, the result is worse than my most pessimistic projections. Already looking into jiu jitsu classes so I can defend myself and my friends from the inevitable increase of emboldened bigots out to hate crime visible and sexual minorities for being who they are. This populist bullshit is getting to be too much.

Yeah...you and Jussie Smollett can sign up together.

On a serious note, I was pretty disappointed that the Alberta Party didn't pick up a couple seats. Although not viable, they seemed like a fairly reasonable centrist party.

 

[darwink]

Turnout was super high, at 70%—the highest since 1971 when it was 72%—high enough that differential turnout effects from different groups which the NDP needed to be more competitive were limited. Will be interesting to see if any ridings flip from the vote anywhere votes, but I bet it will be less than 5, given how the counts of in riding advance votes went.

 

[googspecial]

Meanwhile, while they may be defeated, the NDP remains a strong opposition party. They've successfully transitioned Alberta into a two-party province. Their reign has offered Albertans an alternative to the UCP's "boom town economics". When corruption or lack of results eventually sinks the UCP, the NDP will be in a position to make a comeback.

On a serious note, I was pretty disappointed that the Alberta Party didn't pick up a couple seats. Although not viable, they seemed like a fairly reasonable centrist party.

This election solidified (for me anyway) the need of electoral reform. With ~10% (last I checked) of the popular vote, the AP ought to have some voice in the legislature. I believe proportional representation would allow some of the smaller parties to actually participate in government. A change in how we vote could really spread the popular vote out more, aiding to higher numbers for those parties. Having more voices from different parties in the legislature (and federal parliament) would make politics more healthy in this "political era".

My thoughts anyways. Another system likely wouldn't change the UCP majority result anyways. I was surprised when the referendum for electoral change failed in BC, and angry when Trudeau gave up on he promise for. So perhaps the hope is all for naught ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[darwink]

^ Proportional representation creates problems that voters don't like, and have consistently rejected now. Instant runoff would reduce the excesses of strategic voting (small parties would be more competitive), ensure truly unpopular governemnts aren't re-elected and counteract the benefits of angering your base, if the activity makes others angry at you.

 

[googspecial]

^ Proportional representation creates problems that voters don't like, and have consistently rejected now. Instant runoff would reduce the excesses of strategic voting (small parties would be more competitive), ensure truly unpopular governemnts aren't re-elected and counteract the benefits of angering your base, if the activity makes others angry at you.

Sure. I still think FPTP is antiquated and we ought to try for a modern method. I'm not dead set on ProRep, I just understand it the best.

 

[Silence&Motion]

I was surprised that the federal Liberals didn't institute instant runoff. As the centrist party, it seems like they would gain the most advantage, being the most common second choice.

For the first time in my life, I'm living in a riding that is represented by a conservative party at any level of government. Calgary-Elbow went UCP with only a plurality of the vote. The combined AP-NDP vote was larger.

I don't really understand the appeal of the AP. There just doesn't seem to be that much room in the centre between the NDP and UCP, considering both support pipelines and O+G. It's one thing to say you're in the centre, it's quite another thing to find actual policy proposals that distinguish you from the bigger, more popular parties on your left and right. I don't think the AP really did that.

 

[zagox]

The one upside to this election is that it will now become obvious that Kenney's "pro-jobs, pro-pipelines, pro-investment ... pro-Alberta agenda" was all just bluster and not an agenda at all. No matter how much he rants against BC and the Feds, there's no bringing back the oil boom. But the well-to-do residents of Upper Mount Royal thank all the out-of-work Albertans for voting to give them a big tax cut. When they're investing that tax cut in a second vacation home in Arizona, they'll be sure to raise a glass to everyone in Drayton Valley still patiently waiting for Papa Kenney to get their jobs back.

Meanwhile, while they may be defeated, the NDP remains a strong opposition party. They've successfully transitioned Alberta into a two-party province. Their reign has offered Albertans an alternative to the UCP's "boom town economics". When corruption or lack of results eventually sinks the UCP, the NDP will be in a position to make a comeback.

If you take the long view I think this is a very favorable result for Calgary. It’s pretty clear that we are the swing vote given that rural Alberta is solid UCP and Edmonton is solid NDP. Both parties will have to cater to Calgary’s interests if they want to govern.

On that note, if the UCP get too far out over their skis with social conservatism and start to look vulnerable in 4 years, might we see Nenshi look to lead the NDP into the next election? As much as Notley is a popular face of the party, Nenshi has proven he can win a majority in 80% of the ridings in Calgary, which is worth the 20 seats the NDP would need to here to form government again.