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It will be really good for Canada, but very bad for Air Canada. So it’ll depend on how strong the lobbies are.

Airlines will be against it. If you look at Europe, Japan, and China, most will not take a flight when the total travel time on a train is less than 5 hours. Only caveat is people who can will rather drive unless the train is at least 1 hour faster for the total trip including transit to the train station.

This means for the project to be successful as a transportation method, Toronto to Ottawa need to happen in 2 hours or less, and Montreal has to be no more than 4.

On the other hand, if it can do 250kmph out of Toronto and have a ticket cost to the first station 100km away at around Go Transit prices, then it will really help with opening up a new suburb for the GTA.

Lots of economic opportunities if it happens for Ontario.
 
It will be really good for Canada, but very bad for Air Canada. So it’ll depend on how strong the lobbies are.

Airlines will be against it. If you look at Europe, Japan, and China, most will not take a flight when the total travel time on a train is less than 5 hours. Only caveat is people who can will rather drive unless the train is at least 1 hour faster for the total trip including transit to the train station.

This means for the project to be successful as a transportation method, Toronto to Ottawa need to happen in 2 hours or less, and Montreal has to be no more than 4.

On the other hand, if it can do 250kmph out of Toronto and have a ticket cost to the first station 100km away at around Go Transit prices, then it will really help with opening up a new suburb for the GTA.

Lots of economic opportunities if it happens for Ontario.

With Air Canada being one of the consortium members, it seems they already saw that coming and want to find a way to profit from it. Id imagine there would be some sort of code sharing situation with this line.
 
https://www.thestar.com/business/op...cle_f1fff162-f2e4-11ef-b1d2-bb643fc0f5e4.html

The entire pundit-class in Canada seems to be in complete agreement that this project will never see shovels on the ground. Cynicism abounds.
I'm hoping they finally get proved wrong.
Gonna have to disagree with the pundit class, or whatever that means. Unlike previous attempts, this is a rather serious proposal, and with trumps shannigans, might offer any govt the cover to spend billions on the project.

Put trump to the side for just a moment, this project hinges on the next two elections. If a transy friendly govt are voted in, who specifically have no ideological oposition to everything touched by trudau, I suspect a version of this plan will go through, BUT it needs two full mandates to guarantee that.

I put the odds at around 20 - 30 percent. Which is about normal for any large scale rail project.
 
It would be easier to discuss Alto in the Alto thread, rather than the corridor thread!
I unfortunately hadn't seen this thread until @Allandale25 thankfully tagged me.
The expressway is not an issue. It's entirely south of the tracks, and then bends much further south at Guy.
1740688217086-png.633466
[...]
It absolutely is an issue and you just have to look at your map, because you are constrained by the Expressway on the one side and the orange line on the other. So you either have to dig at least 30 meters deep (Bonaventure Station is 22.6 meters deep) or you are going to build your station in very constrained space. And, by the way, your station is going to be massive, because you'll need 3 center platforms with 2 platform tracks each (one for terminating trains and one each to be shared by ALTO and exo in each direction), so 6 tracks and 3 platforms. The 6 mainline tracks at Berlin-Südkreuz, a modern, reasonably busy mixed-HSR-and-regional rail station measures more than 60 meters (200 ft) for such an arrangement (when excluding the S-Bahn tracks):
1740799311302.png
Good luck finding an Engineering firm (disclaimer: I happen to work for one which takes on reasonably large railway infrastructure projects like the Sawtooth bridge replacement on the Northeast Corridor) which would accept building such a monster underneath the foundations of Place Bonaventure and Bell Centre...

Yes, this is going to cost $10s of billions. Is it that different than the connection from Euston to Old Oak Common?
Very simple: The connection from Old Oak Common to Euston is essential to get the overwhelming majority of HS2 passengers closer to downtown. Conversely, any downtown Montreal tunnel would only really benefit a small minority of the ALTO ridership. To illustrate this, I've created a gravity model for the 6 metropolitan areas served by ALTO (Quebec City, Trois-Rivières, Montréal, Ottawa-Gatineau, Peterborough and Toronto. As you will see, it suggests that only 20% of total ALTO ridership would travel east of Montreal:
1740806577482.png

Note: above „ridership units“ are meaningless as absolute numbers, but they allow relative comparisons which are still relevant, though admitedly crude.

It get's even simpler if we ignore all the markets not touching Montreal at all:
  • Three-quarters (74.3%) of the ridership touching Montreal travels between Montreal and cities towards the West. This ridership group depends on a downtown station location in Montreal, but has little to gain from a downtown tunnel, since the travel time between Gare Centrale and Dorval is 20 minutes today and could at-most save 10 minutes, which can be saved anywhere else for a tiny fraction of $10 billion.
  • One-tenth (10%) travels across Montreal. For them the tunnel doesn't provide any travel time saving, as the Quebec-Montreal train will bring them faster to Dorval than any downtown tunnel could allow them. The only advantage the tunnel could bring to them is that it would save them a transfer at Dorval.
  • The final one-sixth (15.7%) are the only passenger group which would greatly benefit from the tunnel, but I don't think that any sane investor would shower them with $10 billion for an otherwise fully dispersible tunnel (and neither should the taxpayer).
Actually, if you see that MTRL-OTTW is the strongest of all segments (transporting two-thirds of all ALTO ridership) and everything west of Montreal has a passenger load approximately three times that of anything east of Montreal, you might start to understand why I'm so skeptical of HSR ever reaching Quebec City, especially now that it would either require a $10 billion vanity tunnel in Montreal or a forced transfer at Dorval...

I wouldn't suggest this for HFR - or for a souped up 240-km/hr version. But this would make sense if they are looking at doing real HST.
It's an urban myth that HSR depends on gaining high speed really fast. Let's have a look at the TGV Paris-Strasbourg and see how fast the speed limits actually allow it to gain its top speed:
1740806324202.png

As you can see, the Paris-Strasbourg TGV never exceeds 130 km/h before it hits the equivalent distance of the entrance to the Taschereau Yard, which is the maximum length which a Montreal downtown tunnel could plausibly bypass of the existing route and doesn't stop the TGV from covering the 439 km between Paris and Strasbourg (to compare: OTTW-BRKV-KGON-TRTO is 446 km) in 1h44, thus at an average speed of 253 km/h (i.e., well above the 180-200 km/h ALTO's own travel time targets imply).

In summary, I wouldn't hold my breath for ALTO ever reaching beyond Montreal, let alone: for a Montreal tunnel to become part of this project (if it ever happens)...
 
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I've created a gravity model for the 6 metropolitan areas served by ALTO (Quebec City, Trois-Rivières, Montréal, Ottawa-Gatineau, Peterborough and Toronto. As you will see, it suggests that only 20% of total ALTO ridership would travel east of Montreal:
Think you’ll need to show your work on this one. Seems to me that hundreds of trillions of passengers is several magnitudes too many…
 
To add tot his, if someone thinks that the line should follow a hydro corridor, they should get out of the city and try and follow the corridor/ Especially on the Shield, it would be near impossible to make it work.

I am well aware of the conventional wisdom on this. But the train has to go somewhere, and ALTO has suggested that it's casting a fairly wide net in planning the segment between Peterborough and Ottawa. The abandoned line is no longer the presumed route: “What is being studied now (are) all kinds of options, including that one, but we’re not limiting ourselves to only this one.” It was laid out in Victorian times for steam engines that couldn't go above a 1% grade or so, and had to hit a few settlements, so it's curvy route was less of an issue. As a result it runs around a lot of lakes and hills, and straightening it out involves massive construction efforts. Highway 7 was not built until several decades later, and much of it follows a similarly winding route with similar obstacles. Now the settlements strung out along the rail corridor and highway are a bug, not a feature. It was doable for HFR at perhaps 125 kpm, but not for HSR.

This is why I think that "all kinds of options" includes some overland routings that avoid both of those corridors and start afresh with straight lines. The corridor I was referring to covers about 55 km of shield terrain which is not actually all that uneven, without cliffs, and only modest ponds and lakes. Whoever built it did a pretty good job of avoiding the obstacles, and where it does make turns, not much is in the way of wide, high speed curves. It could be that the math says traversing that area at 300 kph is worth the effort and money if it leads to less disruption in other parts of the route where there are more people and land acquisition to deal with. The easterly section through the Rideau Lakes is partly forested and partly marginal farm land. There are several quite large solar installations, suggesting the landowners are open to options. Some of the roads are built in cuts, making them fairly easy to pass over.

I'm not arguing that this is the most likely route (a 50 km bypass along and north of Hwy 7 is possible too), just that it's one of the all kinds of options, and one that corresponds to the strange new map we have.

1740816869160.png
 
It absolutely is an issue and you just have to look at your map, because you are constrained by the Expressway on the one side and the orange line on the other. So you either have to dig at least 30 meters deep (Bonaventure Station is 22.6 meters deep) or you are going to build your station in very constrained space.
You wouldn't go under (or over) Metro Bonaventure (or are you referring to the now demolished CN Bonaventure Station - which would have solved this entire mess). There's plenty of room between the platforms of the metro station and the cathedral for 4 tracks. As I pointed out above, the east end of the Alto platforms would be around de la Gauchetiere and Peel. And as I pointed out before, that pedestrian tunnel from Metro Bonaventure is expendable. Something can be restored later on, if they need to remove it for construction. And any deep tunnel would remain north of the Orange line, let alone Ville Marie. Though the case you make perhaps justifies turning north by Peel. What's the necessary distance you need to drop down to get under the REM trench at President Kennedy?

Good luck finding an Engineering firm (disclaimer: I happen to work for one which takes on reasonably large railway infrastructure projects like the Sawtooth bridge replacement on the Northeast Corridor) which would accept building such a monster underneath the foundations of Place Bonaventure and Bell Centre...
Place Bonaventure is east of Peel; and if you recall, it's more of a bridge than anything else. I don't think either would be in the way. Though if they were - then knock them down - and they can use the land as part of a TOD. Why Place Bonaventure wasn't demolished years ago I don't know - that shopping mall completely failed, and the space is horrific for events - like some kind of dungeon. Even in the 1980s I thought it was as ugly as sin - completely brutal (pun intended).

Very simple: The connection from Old Oak Common to Euston is essential to get the overwhelming majority of HS2 passengers closer to downtown.
Pish. Euston has always been a compromised location - and the station would never have been there if it could have gone further south. And the east-west transit connections have always been poor - it's quite the walk to the Metropolitan/Hammersmith/Circle lines - although at least the new terminal will be better connected to Euston Square. But at the cost of making it a good trek to the Victoria and Bank-branch platforms. If they'd have done this properly, they'd have come into Paddington, built built a new (but likely impossible) terminal at Tottenham Court Road Station. Old Oak Common though is a decent compromise for a terminal. It's only a single stop on the Elizabeth line to Paddington, and three to Tottenham Court Road, with excellent connections to Heathrow, the City, and Canary Wharf. It's not like there's that much around Euston that makes it a centre - other than Euston. And personally anywhere I've travelled from Euston, will now be more accessible from Old Oak Common. The only advantage to Euston is that it get's the terminal to only just more than a kilometre to St. Pancras International. (which begs the question of why they couldn't spend $billions to instead bring HS2 to somewhere closer to HS1, rather than building the new station (that's on the wrong side of Euston station to boot).

Maybe there were no other options - and this is where not even trying to put it into Euston might be a better idea, as I don't think it would improve most travel times, rather than terminating at Old Oak Common. Which they seem to be on to, given the delays and possible cancellation of the the connection to Euston. Anyhow, with the extension to Euston opening about 5 years after HS2 service to Old Oak Common begins, I guess we'll see.

Conversely, any downtown Montreal tunnel would only really benefit a small minority of the ALTO ridership.
I agree - I'm surprised they are going for a tunnel option. But if they are, the alignment shouldn't be the same as Central. I'm not sure the point of debating what we both agree isn't worth it - it's what they are planning that's of interest.

As you will see, it suggests that only 20% of total ALTO ridership would travel east of Montreal
Which is why the project should simply be Montreal to Toronto via Ottawa. But we all know - and have known since Trudeau's original announcement in the late 1970s. And with Trudeau's endless pandering to the west, even Edmonton and Calgary had to be included that time. Fortunately the Liberals seem to have finally realized that sacrificing huge amounts of money and selling out Canada's oil to the richest province will never buy them votes.

It's an urban myth that HSR depends on gaining high speed really fast.
I'm not sure what you are referring to. Obviously the travel speed through Montreal West and NDG - and from Union up the Don, are not going to be 300 km/hr (mind you, the track from Montreal West is very straight ...)

Let's have a look at the TGV Paris-Strasbourg and see how fast the speed limits actually allow it to gain its top speed:
View attachment 633745
As you can see, the Paris-Strasbourg TGV never exceeds 130 km/h before it hits the equivalent distance of the entrance to the Taschereau Yard.
Yeah, it doesn't hit 130 km/hr for 10 km; but it's 120 km at only 1.7 km. I don't see that they are going to hit 120 km heading west from Central station which barely gets you to the Lachine canal. It's another 3 km of tight curves to get to the CN mainline at St. Henri.

and doesn't stop the TGV from covering the 439 km between Paris and Strasbourg (to compare: OTTW-BRKV-KGON-TRTO is 446 km) in 1h44, thus at an average speed of 253 km/h (i.e., well above the 180-200 km/h ALTO's own travel time targets imply).
But on the HS1, they started off with a very compromised slow (but visually interesting) winding path into Waterloo International before building 20 kilometres of new tunnel into London to cut 20 minutes off the travel time. Good grief, they used to go out to Battersea!

In summary, I wouldn't hold my breath for ALTO ever reaching beyond Montreal, let alone: for a Montreal tunnel to become part of this project (if it ever happens)...
It is a riskier part of the project - but it's clearly what they are currently looking at - though I'm sure it will all change 5 times during the next phase. But even if they don't ever serve past Montreal, I'd be surprised if they don't build a downtown Montreal terminal for future eastward extension into a new tunnel.

... all kinds of options, and one that corresponds to the strange new map we have.
Hmm ... I wonder what happened if you stretched the drawing they released onto a proper map, at scale. It's not actually a non-schematic map is it - at least for the existing alignment sections (i.e. to scale).

Is it actually reflecting the existing parts of the alignment we expect will still be used ... say between Montreal and Ottawa ... and from Toronto up to Claremont? That dog-leg from Smiths Falls(?) to Ottawa looked odd to me - almost as if it was using some of the very old abandoned alignment up to Arnprior or something - which seems bizarre giving they already own some pretty straight track.
 
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Think you’ll need to show your work on this one. Seems to me that hundreds of trillions of passengers is several magnitudes too many…
The „ridership units“ produced by any gravity model are meaningless as absolute numbers without multiplying them with a certain trip rate factor, but they still allow relative comparisons which are relevant, though admittedly crude. If you know better estimates for how to distribution a (known or unknown) ridership market size across a proposed network, please show them, but for the time being, they are the (to my knowledge) best figures we can use, as they are derived from the current (2021) population figures and the travel time targets released by ALTO…
 
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I am well aware of the conventional wisdom on this. But the train has to go somewhere, and ALTO has suggested that it's casting a fairly wide net in planning the segment between Peterborough and Ottawa. The abandoned line is no longer the presumed route: “What is being studied now (are) all kinds of options, including that one, but we’re not limiting ourselves to only this one.” It was laid out in Victorian times for steam engines that couldn't go above a 1% grade or so, and had to hit a few settlements, so it's curvy route was less of an issue. As a result it runs around a lot of lakes and hills, and straightening it out involves massive construction efforts. Highway 7 was not built until several decades later, and much of it follows a similarly winding route with similar obstacles. Now the settlements strung out along the rail corridor and highway are a bug, not a feature. It was doable for HFR at perhaps 125 kpm, but not for HSR.

This is why I think that "all kinds of options" includes some overland routings that avoid both of those corridors and start afresh with straight lines. The corridor I was referring to covers about 55 km of shield terrain which is not actually all that uneven, without cliffs, and only modest ponds and lakes. Whoever built it did a pretty good job of avoiding the obstacles, and where it does make turns, not much is in the way of wide, high speed curves. It could be that the math says traversing that area at 300 kph is worth the effort and money if it leads to less disruption in other parts of the route where there are more people and land acquisition to deal with. The easterly section through the Rideau Lakes is partly forested and partly marginal farm land. There are several quite large solar installations, suggesting the landowners are open to options. Some of the roads are built in cuts, making them fairly easy to pass over.

I'm not arguing that this is the most likely route (a 50 km bypass along and north of Hwy 7 is possible too), just that it's one of the all kinds of options, and one that corresponds to the strange new map we have.

View attachment 633748

There are many possibilities between Toronto and Smith's Falls. I am willing to be my membership on this forum and my posting rights that it will not be arrow straight. Even the existing Via ROW is not arrow straight. So, looking at the Havelock Sub that is abandoned, Some of the really curvy areas will be straightened. It is kind of like how when a highway gets redone and all of a sudden a hill is bypassed or a curve is more gentle. Those are my expectations. Some of the small towns may see a bypass as well. I am thinking Tweed and maybe Sharbot Lake won't be.If this line will be sharing the route with a slower, local via train, those places may have stations for that service. Yes,they have small populations, but it may make sense to have a station at each place.

The one thing that does need to be considered are the cottagers in the area. This is prime cottage country of vote rich GTA and Ottawa.That means that many of the waterways need to be protected and may even need to be avoided.
 
With Air Canada being one of the consortium members, it seems they already saw that coming and want to find a way to profit from it. Id imagine there would be some sort of code sharing situation with this line.
Or Air Canada got it self on the team to do its best to delay the project as much as possible. Perhaps even turn it into a failure. Think slow train, poor station locations, and expensive ticket prices.

The entire thing is being managed out of Quebec, and Air Canada’s interests will not be ignored.
 
Or Air Canada got it self on the team to do its best to delay the project as much as possible. Perhaps even turn it into a failure. Think slow train, poor station locations, and expensive ticket prices.

The entire thing is being managed out of Quebec, and Air Canada’s interests will not be ignored.
I would like to think that they see this as a money making venture that should proceed. Within 15 years,I don't want to be proven wrong.
 
Unlike previous attempts, this is a rather serious proposal, and with trumps shannigans, might offer any govt the cover to spend billions on the project.
It's a Hail Mary proposal from the Liberals to try to hold on to power. I see no especial reason to take it seriously.
 
It's a Hail Mary proposal from the Liberals to try to hold on to power. I see no especial reason to take it seriously.
Lets say Carney wins the leadership race. Lets say he becomes the elected PM. What then? Does this die? Does it gets lowed down? Does it continue as planned?With the way the polls have flipped, PP becoming PM is less likely.
 
Or Air Canada got it self on the team to do its best to delay the project as much as possible. Perhaps even turn it into a failure. Think slow train, poor station locations, and expensive ticket prices.

The entire thing is being managed out of Quebec, and Air Canada’s interests will not be ignored.

90% of Air Canada's profits are from intercontinental travel. I suspect they'd ditch many domestic routes if they weren't needed to feed their overseas routes.

One of their HSR roles is to provide integration at various airports along the route; meaning they intend to sell a whole bunch of oveaseas flights without the burden of the domestic flight to feed it.
 
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Lets say Carney wins the leadership race. Lets say he becomes the elected PM. What then? Does this die? Does it gets lowed down? Does it continue as planned?With the way the polls have flipped, PP becoming PM is less likely.
Just gets studied to death and delayed to another election. Then studied to death. Then promised at the end of that election. By then we will have had like 20 years of liberals. The PCs will take over. And it will be delayed indefinitely. This isn’t rocket science. Unless cash is going to flow it’s just an election promise. This is just an urban thread with lots of people who used to play with toy trains. Everyone is skeptical of election promises unless it is something they want. Then they believe anything.
 

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