[interested]

If housing starts are going to slow to levels consistant with demographic fundamentals, does that mean they've been overbuilding all this time as many have alluded to?

Not necessarily. Assuming they are right they may be suggesting that all the demand from investors to rent out or observe "appreciation" and the rental supply/end user supply may be in balance now and that only demographic fundamentals will play a part going forward: i.e. slower demand going forward. This would be predicated on an assumption that there was a need to satisfy demand until now. One could interpret this to believe that investors will only buy based on the rental vacancy with the assumption they can get long term tenants and end users will buy for personal use only going forward. Few will be buying going forward to "flip" since only long term demographic fundamentals will be at play.

It would suggest that CMHC (rightly or wrongly) is seeing an end in 2011 to bidding based on future appreciation rather than for actual usage needs.

In any event, if CMHC is correct, it should at the very minimum mean the end of price increases or at most an increase based on CPI. This is significant only in that CMHC if I recall correctly was stating until recently there would be still be increases in 2011. Even CREA is backing off on that, let alone all the Banks and other individuals calling for a decrease. So it seems quite unanimous that prices have peaked (which we have been stating occured in 2010 May) but also that prices will not be going up from here.

Leaves Condo George to argue the opposite. CG, I hope in your busy schedule you will have a moment to let us know you are still doing well and update us as to whether your clients and your colleagues are as busy as you eluded to about 2-4 weeks ago.

 

[simuls]

I agree that the lack of inventory is a good sign - especially in Toronto. However, that lack of inventory is very much relegated to detached homes in Toronto or condos that are particularly unique (a friend sold hers for over asking in 24 hrs last week). If the inventory and sales to listing ratio (currently around 36% and slightly in sellers territory) stays consistent we could weather this a bit better, but as I said, I'm afraid there is going to be a disconnect between condos and homes in downtown Toronto. The condo S/L in C01 is 26%, while townhouses are 45.7%, detached is 63.6% and the semi is 30.8%. Mid november numbers will be interesting as I saw a lot of SOLD signs while not a lot of For Sale signs in my weekend walk! Also, X just registered and there are about 15 more to come to registration in the next 4 months which will add to the condo inventory. Lots of incentives out there as well, but I still think that developers are behind on this - seems the smaller ones are a little more with it this time around. Already CanAlfa has put off the launch of its latest condo in Liberty Village til at least the spring.

 

[KA1]

Greece fears countries may be driven towards bankruptcy.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...be-driven-toward-bankruptcy/article1799718/ce fears

 

[X2 Buyer]

today's 24 hours - "skilled immigrants going elsewhere"

....252,000 immigrants allowed into the country last year, about 107,000 moved to Ontario with 83,000 resettling in Toronto.

Year 2001 about 148,641 moved to Ontario so other provinces attracted new immigrants away from Ontario who may have come to Ontario.

 

[cat]

Hi all,

I think I need a reality check.

I have just "purchased" a W-facing 510 sq ft unit (with a nice layout and view 12th/F) with parking and locker at the new 111 St. Clair Ave. W. Imperial Plaza. Price tag? $400K

Showroom was crawling with SE Asians signing their contracts. I noted that brokers are being offered 4% to sell units. I also noted lots of dark spaces in their "sister" luxury condo The Avenue across the street.

Please tell me - Is my head in a bubble? Have 10 days to rescind.

Many thanks - Cate

 

[cdr108]

Hi all,

I think I need a reality check.

I have just "purchased" a W-facing 510 sq ft unit (with a nice layout and view 12th/F) with parking and locker at the new 111 St. Clair Ave. W. Imperial Plaza. Price tag? $400K

Showroom was crawling with SE Asians signing their contracts. I noted that brokers are being offered 4% to sell units. I also noted lots of dark spaces in their "sister" luxury condo The Avenue across the street.

Please tell me - Is my head in a bubble? Have 10 days to rescind.

Many thanks - Cate

holy crap ... 510 SF with parking + locker for $400K ... that's almost $800 PSF, and well over when closing costs, land transfer taxes, etc are taken into account.

i thought i saw somewhere that this building was going to sell for $600 PSF ...
perhaps that was the friends and family preview pricing.

what do you mean by "dark spaces" - unoccupied but sold units? i didn't know The Avenue was completed.

 

[JayBee]

holy crap ... 510 SF with parking + locker for $400K ... that's almost $800 PSF, and well over when closing costs, land transfer taxes, etc are taken into account.

i thought i saw somewhere that this building was going to sell for $600 PSF ...
perhaps that was the friends and family preview pricing.

what do you mean by "dark spaces" - unoccupied but sold units? i didn't know The Avenue was completed.

You can't include parking in the PSF calculation. It's still well over $600PSF which is a LOT. Especially since the unit's not even downtown. Hell, you could get a better deal downtown. Granted, not everyone wants to live downtown, but the fact that you can get a better deal downtown should tell you something.

 

[simuls]

Hi all,

I think I need a reality check.

I have just "purchased" a W-facing 510 sq ft unit (with a nice layout and view 12th/F) with parking and locker at the new 111 St. Clair Ave. W. Imperial Plaza. Price tag? $400K

Showroom was crawling with SE Asians signing their contracts. I noted that brokers are being offered 4% to sell units. I also noted lots of dark spaces in their "sister" luxury condo The Avenue across the street.

Please tell me - Is my head in a bubble? Have 10 days to rescind.

Many thanks - Cate

Rescind. That's waaaaaaaaaaay too much for that condo, let alone that area. After closing costs you're looking at around $425 000 and in 3 years, when it's built, it'll probably be worth much less. I'd be surprised if you'd get more than $330 000 for that (and maybe as low as $250 000 - more akin to other newly built condos in the area) - as others have said, it's not downtown, so it'll be hit harder by any slowdown that may happen (already has happened). If you insist on paying $800/ft, then look downtown at places like BISHA or save some money, wait 6 months and then jump in as the incentives are starting to happen. Last two weekends Thompson Residences had big sales and this'll only happen more frequently. If it was full of speculators, that's a clear sign that not only should you not be buying there, but that the building will be mostly rental - another concern you should have as a condo owner.

 

[lafard]

There are an incredible number of people passing through the Imperial building's lobby though. It has had 20-30 people in it every time I've gone by in the last week.

So, obviously, despite the price levels it's apparently ridiculously popular. The clientele might be different, it might be much more local than your typical downtown condo. I would go out on a limb and say that Deer Park and area is an entirely different beast than the high-end downtown investor market. How different, it's hard to say, but it's not Bloor and Yonge.

 

[interested]

I agree that this is catering to a different market.

My concern would be this is a retrofit building with I believe no balconies. I think if it is end users in that neighbourhood, they are going to want this.

Retrofit buildings have different criteria than Tarion new home builds I believe. Perhaps someone could inform.

On the positive, 10 foot ceilings is nice. The murals in the building and the marble are beautiful. But if everyone buying is agents with money from abroad, what do you think will happen if some of that money gets repossessed back to SE Asia. If a mainly invetor building, it is a definate risk.

In fariness to you, most of us who write on this thread are of the pessimistic view going forward so we may not be representative of overall sentiment. We are however I believe a reasonably informed group and have come up largely with the same conclusions.

I agree with the above comment about not counting the parking in the PSF price but at this location, unless you can walk to everything, parking is necessary. That said, on a relative basis, parking for an entry level adds alot of money/sq. ft. IE a for eg. $35000 parking spot is $70/sq.ft. on 510 sq. ft but miuch less for the purchaser of the 1500 sq.ft. where it is insignificant.

I think with parking and locker at around $800/sq.ft., you are at the very top end of the market and this is risky in my view. If you decide to buy, I would think that parking spot over carefully. Get the locker by the way. Always need storage in a condo.

 

[CN Tower]

Hi all,

I think I need a reality check.

I have just "purchased" a W-facing 510 sq ft unit (with a nice layout and view 12th/F) with parking and locker at the new 111 St. Clair Ave. W. Imperial Plaza. Price tag? $400K

Showroom was crawling with SE Asians signing their contracts. I noted that brokers are being offered 4% to sell units. I also noted lots of dark spaces in their "sister" luxury condo The Avenue across the street.

Please tell me - Is my head in a bubble? Have 10 days to rescind.

Many thanks - Cate

Not to be an alarmist but this would give me significant cause for concern:

http://www.michaelwalker.ca/articles/MidtownCrier-Jan-Feb2008.pdf

111 St. Clair Ave. W. – Imperial Oil Building
I’m sure many of you have noticed the large hole in the ground at 111 St. Clair Ave. W., the
soon-to-be former Imperial Oil Building. As part of an internal company restructuring, the
building on St. Clair is no longer needed for office space and will be sold off by Imperial Oil in
the next few months. Prior to the sale, the Ministry of the Environment must certify the integrity
of the site for all future uses, including residential which has the strictest guidelines for
environmental standards. In researching the area, a large deposit of furnace oil was detected 40
feet below the surface. These pools of oil left from many decades ago must be removed and thus
soil remediation work has been ongoing for the past year.

Personally, if it's my family residing there and drawing potable water through the pipes I would tend to avoid any property that was ever referenced in the same paragraph as the words 'soil remediation work'. The standards for office/commercial usage and residential usage are quite different and my level of trust in those assessing this sort of clean up is very low. There are just way too many attractive residential options in this area for me to begin considering dropping $700++ per square foot for a formerly contaminated property. (as per above)

The area is great though, and to broadly suggest it should be discounted to downtown projects is narrow minded in my opinion. I personally find this location exceedingly superior to the Bisha site. In fact, it puzzles me that anyone would want to reside on Blue Jay Way at all but that again is my personal perspective and preference.

 

[interested]

Not to be an alarmist but this would give me significant cause for concern:

http://www.michaelwalker.ca/articles/MidtownCrier-Jan-Feb2008.pdf



Personally, if it's my family residing there and drawing potable water through the pipes I would tend to avoid any property that was ever referenced in the same paragraph as the words 'soil remediation work'. The standards for office/commercial usage and residential usage are quite different and my level of trust in those assessing this sort of clean up is very low. There are just way too many attractive residential options in this area for me to begin considering dropping $700++ per square foot for a formerly contaminated property. (as per above)

The area is great though, and to broadly suggest it should be discounted to downtown projects is narrow minded in my opinion. I personally find this location exceedingly superior to the Bisha site. In fact, it puzzles me that anyone would want to reside on Blue Jay Way at all but that again is my personal perspective and preference.[/QUOTE]

I agree.
I have not figured out
Bisha from location, risk with an unknown brand to be 5 star in the future. Look what happened with 1 King West/Stinson's building with an unbranded hotel. It may turn out to be the number 1 hotelier in the world but it sure is a risk compared to other "known/proven" brands.

Regarding the building, I agree with you that it is a little narrow minded to look at St. Clair/Avenue Road area as less desirable than downtown. It may however, be somewhat less so for young people living downtown and working/walking to everything from there. I think in that regard, downtown may be better.

I also believe the clientele would be different here. Investors attracting renters sure with the smaller units but I would think that a number of people again would be from the area and downsizing. However, as you point out CN Tower, I would look at other buildings as well (though may not get the 10 foot ceiling).

 

[Kenny]

New TREB numbers are up:
http://torontorealestateboard.com/consumer_info/market_news/news2010/pdf/nr_mid_month_1110.pdf

TORONTO, November 16, 2010 -- Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 3,076 sales
through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) during the first two weeks of November
2010.

This represented a 16 per cent decrease compared to the 3,666 sales recorded during
the same period in November 2009. Year-to-date sales amounted to 78,526 – up
slightly from the 2009 total.

“The number of transactions remained high relative to new listings through the first half
of November, promoting a healthy rate of price growth compared to last year,” said
Toronto Real Estate Board President Bill Johnston.

The average price for November mid-month transactions was $437,554 – up more than
five per cent compared to the average of $415,066 recorded during the first 14 days of
November 2009.

 

[cat]

CDR108 - This WAS the friends and family pricing! $370K for the unit, $35K parking, $4K locker. I noticed that the "VIP" broker's preview (5 days earlier) had a LOWER pricing structure (and a high 4% sales commission)! As for The Avenue, some have taken occupancy, some listings have found themselves onto MLS, some unit owners(?) have their decorators working inside. It was also a bit disconcerting to me that at the Implaza F&F event, CEO David Feldman mentioned as an aside that a good selection of units was still available at The Avenue.

Thank you CNTower - you bring up a very good point about soil remediation and water quality vis-a-vis commercial vs. residential retrofit. My understanding is that all this was resolved before the building was sold back in June of this year. BTW, another 2 phases are planned for that back space - a slim tower on the eastmost side designed by Pontarini, and townhomes on the westmost side (in the S backyard).

Interested, the developer has added recessed balconies to some larger S-facing units above the 10th floor. Personally, I think the balcony rendering is butt ugly. Also in the past week, the developer has tweeked the floor plans, increasing the number and floor space of the larger 1,700+sft units (while generallly decreasing their per sq ft price), and at the same time increasing the sq ft price of the smaller "investor" sized units.

This begs the question, why would local downsizers want to live in a 400- unit building where small-sliced units on or below the
7th-10th floor would be primarily investor-geared? I agree that the location is great (for midtown - can even walk to Yorkville), and the building's heritage is impressive.

But, I'm also concerned with all this stated 24,000 sq ft of proposed amenities - sounds like engineering overkill to me. A fooz-ball area, a Wii play room, 2 squash courts, pool, 2 film rooms, a green room, 2 sound-proof music rooms, etc. And, although I admire Nienkamper's quality product lines, the lobby furniture just doesn't do it for me. What market segment(s) are they really targeting?

Perhaps I have just been taken away with the hype and the area, where I live and love it.

I reason, if this relatively low-interest rate environment continues for the next 2-3 years, and our neighbours to the south continue their growing pains (QE3?), then maybe this is not bad as an inflation hedge. If the European bank mess contagion continues (Ireland, thus the UK banks again), and Asian countries increase their own interest rates (after Korea, who's next?), perhaps all this Chinese money will be repatriated or seek out higher yielding pastures elsewhere. Or, as X2(?) recently informed us about Chinese familial and cultural buying habits, perhaps much of this money will just stay put here.


Thanks for all your fabulous input! Keep it coming! Will consider my options carefully. Best - Cate


PS Where are Condo George, Richard, and other RE agents when you want their (albeit biased) opinions?

 

[Condo George]

http://ca.reuters.com/article/idCATRE6A14S520101102?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0

I dont have time to get a haircut!!!