Thanks for the great posts
@Northern Light. We actually align almost perfectly on this issue, for once!
The supply issue is even more stark in certain housing typologies, which have been more supply constrained than others.
I like to believe that condos have a relatively unrestricted supply ability and are a sort of a "baseline" that account for changes in monetary policies, etc., that are other influencers of house prices.
Condos in the GTA have increased in value by 102% in the last decade, compared to inflation of ~18% over the same period. Significant! Much of this has to do with lower borrowing rates than in 2011 however, as well as higher average wages, etc. Only a small part of this is likely due to actual supply shortages, as the development industry generally has the ability to build as much of this product as it wants (though regulations and physical space issues increasingly arguably raise the minimum price floor higher than it could be, restricting supply at least a small amount, but that's another discussion).
The holy grail property though, the single detached home, increased a whopping 150% in the GTA over that same period.
That difference is a result of essentially 0 supply in the city while it is experiencing extreme growth pressures - the asset type moves up in income tiers as it becomes a more exclusive good.
Detached homes will continue this trajectory as society has decided that the environmental cost of providing those unit types in mass numbers enough to make them affordable is too great. That's fine.
Greater efforts need to be made to determine what an adequate replacement for them is though. The way we are doing things right now, isn't it. apartments are simply too expensive to construct on a per square foot basis to be able to affordably supply a large enough space to support families.
I would love, love, love to see far more stacked townhouse developments personally. They are relatively affordable to construct, continue to provide a neighbourhood type feel, and offer much lower costs per square foot to end buyers. They are simply too challenging to permit right now though, both from a zoning and OBC perspective.
