simuls
Senior Member
It's also important to note that yoy % increase continues to decrease. April was 13%, May was 13%, June was 8%, July was 6%, Aug was 6%, September is 5% over last year. As last year was an anomaly with prices continuing to escalate over the normally slow winter months, I would expect this to continue and for us to be around 0% yoy by late November and hit negative by January. An even more accurate barometer is the median sales price - a lot of higher end homes were sold last month which really skews the average. The median number which was up 13% in May is now only up 4%.
In addition, the ytd sales continues to decrease vs last year and I would expect that by the end of the year we will have fewer houses sold in 2010 than in 2009.
To update myself, while the average is still a 5% yoy increase (actually it's 4.7%) - the median is now only up 2.5% - another drop of 1.5% yoy. We are also only 1% up in total sales, so it seems a pretty forgone conclusion that the above will happen and 2010 will be lower total sales than 2009. The average price is steady because - again - we saw more higher priced properties selling (double the number of condos in C02 - which have average prices of $850ish vs Sep for eg.)
It's also important to note that in the C01 area, the s/l ratio is hovering around 26.5% - this is buyers territory and has been for a few months.
Also, also, even with prices lower than in the spring the % listing price is now around 98% - vs typical 100% in the spring of 2010.
Active listings are up 24% yoy and days on the market are 31 vs 26 or a 19% increase.
So, active listings are up, days to sell are up, number of listings are up, % listing price is down, median price yoy continues to drop, average price yoy continues to drop. I'm not sure how many more ways there are to say that this doesn't bode well...unless you're a realtor (like the one I just saw from the beaches) who is saying that sales are down because there just aren't enough listings - unbelievably irresponsible spin.