interested
Senior Member
I don't recall anyone predicting the "sky falling". Although I do recall predictions of a 25% drop over five years.
By the way, did you actually read that article?
"Sales of new housing hit 4,535 units last month, up by 0.6 per cent from the same time last year according to figures released by the Building, Industry and Land Development Association on Monday. The positive figure is a major rebound from September, when sales were down by 32 per cent."
"“Clearly investors are still active in the property market,†said housing analyst Will Dunning. “It remains to be seen how this will all play out.â€
"Some analysts have said there are too many high rise buildings being built".
"Toronto new housing prices remained flat in September over August, the first time that prices have not increased this year, according to figures released by Statistics Canada. "
"A softening market means builders will have to hold the line on pricing."
Dave, it is interesting to see how different people see the same data.
I note that Moneyville (and other journal articles) seem to be going for eye catching headlines that are very supportive of the real estate industry the last 6 months. I suspect that the editors have told their journalists we need a positive spin because their "advertisors" were likely unhappy with negative report sounding headlines.
I agree with your interpretation. I wonder what spin they will put on it when they have to say prices on new are actually dropping. However, the development industry won't let that happen either but will rather offer "incentives" which have the same effect but they will claim on paper the new home price is still "whatever".
I also fully expect the spin will be going forward (since prices are below the peak in May and will be dropping that "in 2010" as a whole, prices were slightly up or unchanged for last year when the trend will be clearly going down.
Also, when those foreign investors (the majority of the condo market by some accounts) wake up to the reality of the numbers on the ground, will they still be interested in holding for the long term, or will we see some discontent and sales. I don't know the answer but it is sure a risk when/if our local people are being priced out of the market and would not be in a position to pick up any slack.
Maybe UD is right that things will correlate with stock markets so I am awaiting his prediction for the stock market the next 6 months. I think he is doing tech analysis looking at 50 and 200 day moving averages so I want to hear if he is expecting a bull run or at least continued strength since he is correct in regard that the wealth effect will be reinforced and investors will continue to invest as long as they feel things are good. Witness the stock market decline in 2008-2009 and the effect on housing.