recharts
Banned
not relevant
I say it is not, so, it is your problem
|
|
|
- Thread starter simuls
- Start date
I say it is not, so, it is your problem
rbt
Senior Member
Well, the Mark Clusterer library is a good place to start. You will want to change the code to show an average relative to asking in addition to the marker count number.
http://code.google.com/p/google-maps-utility-library-v3/wiki/Libraries
recharts
Banned
You might want to look in the archive of my blog
I have used cluster nodes to represent condos and listing density
It has some caveats and I am not going to debate that here. It is more a technical discussion and all I need to say is that it is not better than a heat map like the ones I ended up using
azureray
Active Member
Anyone have data of year on year housing starts v.s. population growth? This is predict the supply v.s. demand and whether or not we have an over supply.
Here's one article of this POV: http://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/population-growth-will-cure-housing-market-analyst-173839.aspx
but with no solid data to back it up.
Here's one article of this POV: http://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/population-growth-will-cure-housing-market-analyst-173839.aspx
but with no solid data to back it up.
daveto
Active Member
Stats Canada has data on # of housing units and population. As I recall we discussed this a while back for the GTA, and # of units had exceeded population growth by a fair margin, but when you adjust for size of housing units, then units were ahead of population growth by a smaller margin.
For housing starts, if you google "Canada housing starts" that will answer half of the equation (ie approx 200k per year). The other half is that we have approx 1 housing unit per 3 people in the country (ie 12m units), and if you google "canada rate of population growth" you'll see that Stats Canada quotes an average rate of growth of 1% over the past 10 years
http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/as-sa/98-310-x/98-310-x2011003_1-eng.cfm
So it would appear we've been building units at approx 1.6x the rate of population growth over the past decade. Ie 200k/12m = 1.67% = approx 1.6 x 1% population growth. But presuming those units may be smaller on average (ie like many of the GTA condos), perhaps its been more like 1.4x population growth?
Last edited:
azureray
Active Member
That's great insights. Another key factor is the demand of existing population (i.e., current renters / children turning adults etc.) So if the inventory is growing at an approximately 1.5X the rate of GTA population, how much of it can be absorbed by existing population base. A good way to find out would be looking at the rental market growth or decrease, the number of renters v.s. home owners.
macookie
Active Member
This article points out that in SoCal (and yes, Toronto is not California) prices rose for 2 years, even after sales volumes dropped. (why... cuz the higher end real estate continues to sell, were as the lower values don't... whereby the average sales price continues to rise.)...
http://www.torontocondobubble.com/2013/04/why-are-toronto-prices-still-going-up.html
http://www.torontocondobubble.com/2013/04/why-are-toronto-prices-still-going-up.html
azureray
Active Member
The number of activities is only a reference value, not a direct reflection of market value. When we see volumes drop, it could simply be people's hesitation due to economic factors, which may mean an accumulation of waiting buyers. When economy shows better signs, there could be a sudden influx of buyers, which we say in early 2010...bidding wars everywhere after 2 years of soft market.
recharts
Banned
We have more condos than NY or Mexico cities. These are two huge cities which I remember were compared with To
in fact see this article
http://www.buzzbuzzhome.com/chat/ge...der-construction-in-north-america-sustainable
Also see www.theeconomicanalyst.com
Ben has an article on this and he shows that the household formation is behind the new dwellings rate.
In regards to condos we are over supplied and this will trap many who will want to upgrade to a SFH. They will not be able to sell because they will be under water.
We are also assisting at a decoupling between Condo prices and the price of the other types of dwellings, the reason being the same: oversupply.
So by the time when those trapped in this bubble want to upgrade or sell they will not be able because the difference between the asset that tehy have to sell and the one they have to buy will have grown to unreasonable values for their pockets.
Attachments
azureray
Active Member
Just want to clarify, do we have more condos in total, or do we have more condos 'under construction'? That will make a big difference. It could mean we have overstock, or it could mean we just had a slow start, since Toronto just started booming about a decade ago while the other large cities such as NY and London have reached their height long long ago.
greenleaf
Senior Member
This might help:
"Housing Growth is On Track with the Forecasts: The 2005 forecast anticipates that 322,000 housing units will be required to accommodate the forecasted population growth between 2001 and 2031. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reported that 127,500 units were built between 2001 and 2011. This is 40% of the required units and leaves a balance of 194,500 units to achieve that forecast. In the five years from 2007 to 2011 inclusive, the City received 1,871 development proposals representing 151,900 units. Of these, about 80,100 units are approved or have building permits issued. This represents a further 25% of the required units.
Together, this is almost two-thirds of the units required to accommodate the forecasted population by 2031 with 18 years remaining in that forecast period.
Of the balance of 194,000 units anticipated to be required after 2011, over forty percent of the units are either already approved or have building permits issued. Toronto is well on its way to housing the population forecasted by the Growth Plan to 2031. The revised forecast anticipates that the average number of persons per household will be higher than previously expected, so that despite the higher population forecast, the number of dwelling units required to accommodate that population by 2031 will be slightly lower than the current forecast."
via http://app.toronto.ca/tmmis/viewAgendaItemHistory.do?item=2013.PG20.8
Further info: https://www.placestogrow.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=318&Itemid=14
Last edited:
recharts
Banned
You guys seem to be determined to ignore the data no matter what
In Vancouver it is just a technicality that hides the decline in SFH prices YoY.
Semi and Condos are officially in red. Larry never lied, he just had the stats earlier than anybody else.
http://www.yattermatters.com/2013/05/secret-love-affair-with-vancouver-real-estate/
In one my posts from today you also have the condo numbers for Toronto
Not sure what else you want
In Vancouver it is just a technicality that hides the decline in SFH prices YoY.
Semi and Condos are officially in red. Larry never lied, he just had the stats earlier than anybody else.
http://www.yattermatters.com/2013/05/secret-love-affair-with-vancouver-real-estate/
In one my posts from today you also have the condo numbers for Toronto
Not sure what else you want
ISYM
New Member
Without a doubt recharts is the same individual who has been banned for bad behaviour three times within as many months on another rather large forum and is currently banned.
The modus operandi is the same – links to Turner, Rabidoux, watchdog et al along with these iterations he created under the recharts moniker and a fixation on freeholds particularly in North York. He also has a propensity for misrepresenting the information contained within links he’s providing. His bad behaviour in the form of vitriol escalates with every post not in agreement with his crash position or his data. His lingo includes realtour and wet dreams.
Here too he is trying to mask the fact that English is not his native language however that doesn’t last long as is starting to become evident.
I am not wrong as to who he is.
This is just a heads up as to what to expect.
recharts
Banned
?
wow!
Just simply wow! Can you be more detailed?
What forum and fixation?
I believe that I explained clearly enough that I can not plot Condo heat maps and besides that the condo market is doomed.
Other than that I do not understand a word from what you are saying.
The only thing that is true above is that my English is not perfect.
Guys if you want me to go away I have no problem with this just say it and I am gone.
Not sure what is wrong with this user ISYM,
-(s)he first accused me of not being experienced enough to comment on the RE market
-next (s)he accused me of stealing her maps and graphs
-and now (s)he is accusing me of being someone else.
I might have looked like I snapped a few harsh replies here but I believe that I did it with good reasons. Other than that, I think that I posted data and solid arguments in my replies
If all it takes here to silence a person is an user like ISYM then I don't think that I am the one who has a problem.
PS: Ben Rabideaux and Garth Turner have thousands of followers. Not sure how that proves that I am the person that you are saying that I am
Last edited:
urbandreamer
recession proof
I would say balance is required. Bulls & Bears allowed here 
It's a bore when realtors just spout off their bullish nonsense and equally dull when the doom & gloomers remain entrenched in their positions. I take the trader approach--I could care less if the market goes up or down as money can be made or lost in either scenario and most importantly, it's fun to watch.
I figured out who ISYM is finally--okay, so you're a "big shot" realtor. But that means you're biased
It's a bore when realtors just spout off their bullish nonsense and equally dull when the doom & gloomers remain entrenched in their positions. I take the trader approach--I could care less if the market goes up or down as money can be made or lost in either scenario and most importantly, it's fun to watch.I figured out who ISYM is finally--okay, so you're a "big shot" realtor. But that means you're biased