Jazz Air is ordering 15 Q400s for delivery starting in May of next year, with options for 15 more. They plan to replace CRJs with them and there is speculation that they will use some of them to return to Toronto Island.
Halifax-based Jazz wants to resume flights at the island airport later this year, possibly with existing Dash-8 turboprops in its fleet. But the aircraft order announced yesterday means Jazz could start using the 74-seat Q400 after the first of 15 turboprops is delivered in May, 2011...."We remain interested in resuming service to Toronto island as soon as possible," Air Canada spokesman Peter Fitzpatrick said.
Edmonton Journal
Globe and Mail
Canada News Wire
Aircraft deliveries are planned to commence in May 2011. The aircraft will accommodate 74 passengers, and will be configured with a single cabin....The first 15 Q400 NextGen turboprops will replace 15 50-seat regional jets.
That is 4 more seats (one full row) than Porter aircraft have.
EDIT: I am not sure there is a lot for Porter to worry about over this. Most of these planes will likely go to existing routes where they are currently flying the about-to-be-replaced CRJs. If Air Canada/Jazz does put some Q400s into the island, it will likely only be to some of the major destinations like Ottawa and Montreal. They can't really offer a much better experience than Porter, except for Maple Leaf Lounge, although they may have a bit of advantage with the total number of flights from YOW or YUL (including YYZ flights) which will offer potentially better flexibility for passengers -- this may force some changes to Porter's flight-change rules.
If Continental moves in as well (likely Newark and Cleveland to start with), Air Canada would get Star Alliance connection opportunities -- but in most cases passengers could already fly directly to US destinations (from YOW or YUL) or transfer through Pearson. If the Island offers quick connection opportunities though (how fast can you connect through Pearson to a US destination?), perhaps there may be opportunities (for example, if Continental opens flights to non-hub destinations, especially ones currently served by small planes out of Pearson).
I would suppose London, Ont. might be an option as well (Air Ontario used to fly from the London to the Island, with continuing service to Montreal.) Air Canada will have the same range restrictions on destinations that Porter has -- even more so, with 4 more seats, so we aren't going to see YTZ-YVR anytime soon. LGA could be a possibility as AC has slots there -- this might impact on Porter's choice of expansion to LGA or Westchester County that they have been considering.
For each Air Canada Island flight, there will be landing fees and Airport Improvement Fees paid to the Port Authority (reducing the share of the airport facilities that Porter passengers need to pay for) and Porter will get money directly (as the terminal land lord) to help pay for the new terminal. If Air Canada planes need refueling, they need to buy it from Porter as well (unless they still sell gas at Stolport?). Porter might even get money for parking Air Canada planes in a hanger, unless Air Canada goes to Stolport for parking space.
In any case, the more airlines there are flying out of the island, and the more passengers use it, the less likely it becomes that the airport gets shut down.
And lets not forget that 30 (including options) new planes means good jobs for hundreds of residents of Toronto building those planes, and all the economic benefit that comes with that. Bombardier can make around 6-7 Q400s per month now that they aren't making Q100s,200s and 300s any more. They have a backlog of 75 (not including this order), so this will give a bit more job security to those workers. Those are jobs that are not going to the US or Brazil.
With multiple airlines and 1,000,000+ passengers per year, is it perhaps time to talk about how the Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport should be served by transit? None of the current waterfront development plans and Transit City plans seem to consider the airport at all. Perhaps the Bathurst Street and Queens Quay street cars could terminate at the ferry terminal (or at least have some of them short turn there). Having a Downtown Relief Subway from the east (Pape?) could terminate at the airport after passing through Union Station. The issue needs to be framed in terms of reducing the road traffic to and from the airport. If a subway went to the airport, a lot fewer people would take cabs.