[Rainforest]

Debunking the Promises of Bus Rapid Transit | Downtown Sparrow

by Sean Hurley – Whenever the on-again, off-again Hamilton LRT debate is on-again, invariably a suburban politician will counter with “BRT!” The idea is that rather than the planned, ready…

downtownsparrow.ca

The article isn't by any means debunking BRT as a concept.

It merely states that taking into account the particular, highly unusual property tax calculation scheme currently adopted in Hamilton, it will be harder to implement the BRT network reaching into the suburbs than the LRT line running right through the downtown.

In any case, there is no good reason for Hamilton to reject LRT when both senior governments are eager to fund that LRT and cover all capital costs.

But in other cities where the context is different, BRT may be the right choice in many cases.

 

[ARG1]

The article isn't by any means debunking BRT as a concept.

It merely states that taking into account the particular, highly unusual property tax calculation scheme currently adopted in Hamilton, it will be harder to implement the BRT network reaching into the suburbs than the LRT line running right through the downtown.

In any case, there is no good reason for Hamilton to reject LRT when both senior governments are eager to fund that LRT and cover all capital costs.

But in other cities where the context is different, BRT may be the right choice in many cases.

Agreed. In the case of Hamilton, the feds and province are offering 3.6bill for LRT, and won't budge on anything different. At this point LRT is the completely obvious choice.

 

[TRONto]

The problem is that the difference in capital cost is so high. According to the Queen Street BRT IBC, the most expensive option for the BRT, that being Bus lanes with no reduction in car lanes (so with road widening and what not), as well as Bike lanes is planned to cost 500m dollars in capital costs, or about $21m per km, over its 24km length.

The Hurontario LRT is $4.6b in capital costs, or about $255m per km, over 18 kilometers, or 12x more expensive upfront (granted the Hurontario LRT has an underground station and an elevated viaduct, but the difference in price is still astronomical).

As for operating costs, the Hurontario LRT was given a billion dollars to operate the line over 30 years. This is approximately 33.3m per year. For Queen Street it was rated for $45m per year in 2019 and I'll include the addiitonal maintenance costs. If we assume that costs don't scale per km (which they absolutely should, and would make this comparison even more favourable to Queen Street), It would take 14 years for LRT to catch up to BRT. Realistically though the costs do scale with distance quite a bit, unfortunately I can't say by much, and I'm not going to pretend that it scales linearly, otherwise it will apparently take 900 years for the operating costs to catch up to the capital cost price difference. What is most likely true is that if at some point the BRT costs do catch up, it won't be until 30-40 years and at that point you'll likely have the ridership where you can safely upgrade to a light metro or something higher order than an LRT.

As discussed elsewhere on the forum, the cost of actually building the Hurontario LRT is around $100 million /km. You will see if you look at the contents of the contract.

 

[afransen]

As discussed elsewhere on the forum, the cost of actually building the Hurontario LRT is around $100 million /km. You will see if you look at the contents of the contract.

If the balance is operating cost, it kind of calls into question the supposed opex savings of LRT.

 

[ARG1]

As discussed elsewhere on the forum, the cost of actually building the Hurontario LRT is around $100 million /km. You will see if you look at the contents of the contract.

Can you provide a link if you don't mind?

I can't see what that money could be used for that isn't construction. Maintenance and Operation is covered in the additional 1 billion dollar award, and the 4.6 billion dollars is towards "design, build and finance" which is presumably also where the initial capital cost presented in the Queen Street BRT IBC will go to. The total cost for Hurontario was 5.6 Billion Dollars.

 

[afransen]

Forecasting 32M daily rides in 2031 (http://www.metrolinx.com/images/gre...ontario-lrt/Benefits_Case-Hurontario_Main.pdf p. 44).

Assume that average over 30 years, then $5.6B is almost $6/ride. That's in the neighbourhood of the cost of a private automobile on a per km basis (assuming average rider rides 10km).

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

The contract value includes approximately C$2.1 billion in total capital costs for construction of the Hurontario LRT.

News Releases : Hitachi in Canada

Hitachi's diversity is a result of its policy of responding to society's changing needs by entering new product areas while keeping existing divisions active.

www.hitachi.ca

Just a touch over $100M/km.

AoD

 

[ARG1]

The contract value includes approximately C$2.1 billion in total capital costs for construction of the Hurontario LRT.

News Releases : Hitachi in Canada

Hitachi's diversity is a result of its policy of responding to society's changing needs by entering new product areas while keeping existing divisions active.

www.hitachi.ca

Just a touch over $100M/km.

AoD

So exactly where is the remaining 3.5 billion going? Operations and Maintenance? Then that's ridiculously expensive. Utility relocation? That should be covered in capital costs.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

So exactly where is the remaining 3.5 billion going? Operations and Maintenance? Then that's ridiculously expensive. Utility relocation? That should be covered in capital costs.

The 5B figure includes financing, inflation, operation, maintenance, vehicles, etc - like you have said. It's an accounting figure.

AoD

 

[ARG1]

The 5B figure includes financing, inflation, operation, maintenance, vehicles, etc. It's an accounting figure.

AoD

Vehicles is capital, Operations and Maintenance are the 1 billion being paid for by Mississauga, so we have 2.5 billion going to... financing and inflation? What?

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Vehicles is capital, Operations and Maintenance are the 1 billion being paid for by Mississauga, so we have 2.5 billion going to... financing and inflation? Wat?

Well, the Hitachi press release cited 4.6B, so you are left with 2.5 going to whatever indeed. My guess is financing at a certain interest rate over 30 years.

EDIT:
The VFM report indicates the Base cost (project cost + financing) = 3.5B; 4.6B includes inflation

Definiton: Base costs include design, construction, operations, maintenance and lifecycle costs

https://www.infrastructureontario.ca/uploadedFiles/_CONTENT/Projects/Hurontario_Light_Rail_Transit/VFM_Hurontario_LRT-s.pdf

AoD

 

[drum118]

May I ask what you consider to be failures and why?

On the point of cost, as I've written above, while it is true that BRT has higher capital and maintenance costs than LRT, the cost of LRT has skyrocketed so much in the past several years that it will take a long time for those operating costs to catch up, (Reminder that the Hurontario LRT went form $1.4b capital + operations compared to 2020 where the winning bid was $5.6 billion, although apparently the 1.4 didn't include utility relocations?) and by the time they do, many of the corridors we we're building BRTs will likely have the ridership to support a metro or a light metro. This isn't factoring how the operating costs for BRTs assume much higher frequencies than the LRT counterparts which means that transit users will get a travel experience where busses come far more often and they can spend less time waiting for their bus compared to waiting for their tram (As a reminder, the Hurontario LRT will operate at 7.5 minute headways, longer than the existing bus route along Hurontario).

The ones I see as failures start with the lack of ridership that doesn't even come close to any standards for LRT in the first place. A few have no place to expand to increase ridership over time. Some where built too short due to lack of funds and no sign of any funds to do an extension.

One of the BRT should been an LRT from day one and that is in the work to do so at great cost and inconvenient to riders. Ottawa is finally seeing part of its BRT converted to LRT and it has been the poster child for BRT since day one when part of it should been an LRT on day one.

Don't forget the cost increase for Hurontario covers interest to that has to be paid by the government at the end of the 30 years at a higher rate going the P3 route than carrying it on the government books as an on going cost.

I was expecting Hurontario to be every 10 minutes starting with one car and remain that way until the 2/3 car is added for a 300' train. Once ridership reach X point, then headway will decease until it gets to be every 3 minutes and this will only apply to various section of the line. Going south of Dundas will be at a higher headway due to lack of ridership like it is today and why 103 was kill south of the Queensway and a higher headway for 2.

It is also part of a failure due to the fact it will waste riders 15 minutes going off route like it has been since becoming 2000 as well cancelling of 103 once service start for the LRT. If buses that will still operate on Hurontario after the LRT start like the 103 route making all stops at existing stops, it will help folks in the Eglinton area to get to/from the Cooksville GO station faster than the LRT. Since The Hurontario Line will see 42 m cars only, only one car will be needed on opening day and going to 2 is over kill.

 

[afransen]

The ones I see as failures start with the lack of ridership that doesn't even come close to any standards for LRT in the first place. A few have no place to expand to increase ridership over time. Some where built too short due to lack of funds and no sign of any funds to do an extension.

One of the BRT should been an LRT from day one and that is in the work to do so at great cost and inconvenient to riders. Ottawa is finally seeing part of its BRT converted to LRT and it has been the poster child for BRT since day one when part of it should been an LRT on day one.

Don't forget the cost increase for Hurontario covers interest to that has to be paid by the government at the end of the 30 years at a higher rate going the P3 route than carrying it on the government books as an on going cost.

I was expecting Hurontario to be every 10 minutes starting with one car and remain that way until the 2/3 car is added for a 300' train. Once ridership reach X point, then headway will decease until it gets to be every 3 minutes and this will only apply to various section of the line. Going south of Dundas will be at a higher headway due to lack of ridership like it is today and why 103 was kill south of the Queensway and a higher headway for 2.

It is also part of a failure due to the fact it will waste riders 15 minutes going off route like it has been since becoming 2000 as well cancelling of 103 once service start for the LRT. If buses that will still operate on Hurontario after the LRT start like the 103 route making all stops at existing stops, it will help folks in the Eglinton area to get to/from the Cooksville GO station faster than the LRT. Since The Hurontario Line will see 42 m cars only, only one car will be needed on opening day and going to 2 is over kill.

I think Ottawa is a poster child for successful BRT that should have been upgraded to proper grade-separated metro system. They ended up with a low floor abomination.

 

[ssiguy2]

I am starting to wonder about the relevancy of reduced maintenance savings costs that LRT has over buses. Remember the rail industry likes to toot those savings but when doing so they they compare LRT to DIESEL buses. According to Proterra in a study for OCTranspo, electric buses have maintenance costs a whopping 70% below their diesel bus counterparts. The brakes also last more than twice as long due to much of the breaking actually being done by regeneration. Added to this, when you have a totally disconnected LRT system like in the GTA, special maintenance & repair facilities have to be built for every single line as opposed to just one e-bus facility for the whole city. LRT also require very expensive and time consuming track & wire replacements.

Also the perceived savings in labour due to LRT higher capacity per vehicle is hypothetical. While that certainly is pronounced in high ridership routes where there are at least 2 cars per train, much of the newer systems in small cities only employ one-car trains which have no significant capacity over double-articulated buses. In terms of labour required per-passenger moved, the difference between to 2 is negligible as remember some of the newer DA buses are 30 meters giving them the same capacity as the new Toronto articulated streetcars.

 

[TRONto]

I am starting to wonder about the relevancy of reduced maintenance savings costs that LRT has over buses. Remember the rail industry likes to toot those savings but when doing so they they compare LRT to DIESEL buses. According to Proterra in a study for OCTranspo, electric buses have maintenance costs a whopping 70% below their diesel bus counterparts. The brakes also last more than twice as long due to much of the breaking actually being done by regeneration. Added to this, when you have a totally disconnected LRT system like in the GTA, special maintenance & repair facilities have to be built for every single line as opposed to just one e-bus facility for the whole city. LRT also require very expensive and time consuming track & wire replacements.

Also the perceived savings in labour due to LRT higher capacity per vehicle is hypothetical. While that certainly is pronounced in high ridership routes where there are at least 2 cars per train, much of the newer systems in small cities only employ one-car trains which have no significant capacity over double-articulated buses. In terms of labour required per-passenger moved, the difference between to 2 is negligible as remember some of the newer DA buses are 30 meters giving them the same capacity as the new Toronto articulated streetcars.

Check out the TTC electric bus review. The ebuses don't compare well to diesel yet. Those ebus savings are theoretical at this point. You could also check out Consumer Reports review of BEV cars and they aren't quite there yet on quality issues.
I do think BEV will get there. The industry is new so it'll take a little bit more time .