[Surrealplaces]

The economy has nothing to do with it, the number of sales do. They're at like 75% or more for tower 1 of Orchard so we should probably see it begin construction this year.

I think a lot of Lamb's projects have buyers that are investment buyer, so 75% sales wouldn't necessarily surprise me. Maybe we'll see a start on construction.

 

[UrbanWarrior]

He did announce recently that his two Edmonton projects are on hold for at least a year while both 6th and 10th and Orchard are still going ahead, so that would seem to indicate a start of construction for Orchard within the next year.

 

[Oddball]

He did announce recently that his two Edmonton projects are on hold for at least a year while both 6th and 10th and Orchard are still going ahead, so that would seem to indicate a start of construction for Orchard within the next year.

Here's the Herald article to confirm. Orchard is explicitly mentioned as beginning in the fall.

 

[BKha]

Thanks for the feedback. I hope it does get built, but with the weak economy I'm sceptical. If they have 75% sales then I could be wrong, which is what i hope.

 

[Oddball]

Thanks for the feedback. I hope it does get built, but with the weak economy I'm sceptical. If they have 75% sales then I could be wrong, which is what i hope.

My Dad is presently in a state of semi-retirement. He was laid off when things took a turn last year, but I don't think he's done for good. He's simply been enjoying some relaxation. He's a 40 year industry veteran. He's seen it all since coming to the city in the 70s. He's a very involved U of T alumnus and just came back from doing some lectures out there a few weeks ago and I caught up for lunch with him last week (at that vietnamese place ) and he made some interesting points that have be questioning our perceptions about the economy.

He said, the last time that oil was in the $30s, most companies were profitable. I know this doesn't take into account changes in the production mix towards higher cost resources that like fracking or the oilsands, but his point was that $100 barrel oil hides a lot of mistakes. And that while things have noticeably cooled off from the heady days of the Summer of 2014, are things really that bad overall? He also said that perceptions out East are that the city is burning to the ground. How has that perception leaked into our own through media stories?

I'll point to some Statistics Canada Figures about January. The overall Canadian economy grew by 0.6% which is the fastest growth since October. And deeper in the data it says that Oil & Gas extraction has grown for the 4th consecutive month. At a rate, 1.4%, significantly higher than the national economy as a whole. Oil field services also rebounded after a very rough December.

I also looked at ATB's Chief Economist Tood Hirsch's outlook for Q1. He's estimates that the Alberta Economy shrank by around 1% last year and will shrink by 0.5% again this year. That's province wide, and I have to think there are other parts of the province considerably more heavily effected than we are. So rather than retracting it sounds like things for Calgary are probably mostly static at the moment. Todd is also calling for $50-$55 dollar oil by year's end, but I think that's an educated guess. I know he wasn't calling for $29 dollar a barrel oil for the end of 2015, but there we were none the less. Anyway, for comparison, in 2009, the Alberta economy shrunk by 5.5%.

Even with that mixed bag of news, look around. There's lots of construction ongoing. No one is anticipating that the province's population will stop growing either. Things aren't at the torrid clip of the high boom times but nor is this as bad as the 2009 recessions of the early or mid 80s. Companies like Oxford which is owned by OMERS (a pension plan) have very long term time horizons are continuing to invest here. There may be a few things going to the shelves which may have otherwise moved forward, but I think as it stands there will be plenty for people like us to watch out for.

We might have to leave the 300m+ fantasy towers for another year though.

 

[maestro]

You can find nutjobs everywhere. The perception out East isn't that the city is burning. There are concerns. Things are definitely worse than 2009 for oil and gas simply going by the length of the downturn. There aren't too many signs pointing to quick recovery . Extraction is not much an indicator as those project are heavily invested in. Exploration is down significantly.

The office market is in the toilet. It is exponentially worse than 2009. It will recover at some point. Companies like Oxford are in positions to sit on developments for a very long time. Part of their investment strategy is to have a certain percentage of future projects as part of their portfolio. They will never be in a position where they don't have any planned/ready to go developments in Calgary no matter the economic situation.

A reasonable estimation would be a minimum of five years for the next major tower development.

 

[Surrealplaces]

He said, the last time that oil was in the $30s, most companies were profitable. I know this doesn't take into account changes in the production mix towards higher cost resources that like fracking or the oilsands, but his point was that $100 barrel oil hides a lot of mistakes.

^^^This!

Is what I have been saying to anyone I know involved in O&G. I worked at Syncrude from 2001 - 2004, and I remember when oil hit $20.00/barrel and everyone was pretty excited. When it hit $30/barrel it was boom times lol!
Everything in Alberta (wages, house prices, car prices, etc..) has been tied to $60.00 a barrel or higher, when really it doesn't have to be. I've worked for a company tied to O&G since then and have seen the cost of doing business spiral through the roof. I could give a million examples of how the O&G really got themselves caught in this problem. It's a shame they have to lay people off because of their own stupidity.

 

[Surrealplaces]

A couple of pics from last weekend ..... a little older than the one by UW.

 

[Oddball]

^^^This!

Is what I have been saying to anyone I know involved in O&G. I worked at Syncrude from 2001 - 2004, and I remember when oil hit $20.00/barrel and everyone was pretty excited. When it hit $30/barrel it was boom times lol!
Everything in Alberta (wages, house prices, car prices, etc..) has been tied to $60.00 a barrel or higher, when really it doesn't have to be. I've worked for a company tied to O&G since then and have seen the cost of doing business spiral through the roof. I could give a million examples of how the O&G really got themselves caught in this problem. It's a shame they have to lay people off because of their own stupidity.

Here's an interesting article from the Globe. It's more of a blurb really, but the value of building permits is up nationally lead by strong growth in Alberta.

 

[Spring2008]

All of a sudden they're up to a quick pace over here - noticed they're working on the 5th floor columns already. Eager to see how this turns out.

 

[maestro]

^^^This!

Is what I have been saying to anyone I know involved in O&G. I worked at Syncrude from 2001 - 2004, and I remember when oil hit $20.00/barrel and everyone was pretty excited. When it hit $30/barrel it was boom times lol!
Everything in Alberta (wages, house prices, car prices, etc..) has been tied to $60.00 a barrel or higher, when really it doesn't have to be. I've worked for a company tied to O&G since then and have seen the cost of doing business spiral through the roof. I could give a million examples of how the O&G really got themselves caught in this problem. It's a shame they have to lay people off because of their own stupidity.

It's called inflation. Impossible to go back unless you want things to get really bad for an extended period of time.

Layoffs are the solution to everything. Think I would have shot myself long time ago if I still worked in corporate Canada.

 

[Surrealplaces]

It's called inflation. Impossible to go back unless you want things to get really bad for an extended period of time.

Layoffs are the solution to everything. Think I would have shot myself long time ago if I still worked in corporate Canada.

It's impossible to go back to the exact levels of 2003, but not impossible to mitigate the damage, and kind of go back half way. In the last year I've seen a lot of examples of inflation being 'repealed' for lack of a better word. There's always fallout of course when this happens, but sometimes not much or not at all as I've been finding out. I have to take off now, but will give examples later.

 

[Surrealplaces]

 

[Beltline_B]

Finally good progress

 

[Cowtown]

Noticeable progress since the last update. With the tower portion underway it should progress much better.


6th and Ten by Chadillaccc, on Flickr