Beltline_B
Senior Member
Having Gondek win isn't the worst thing. I'm happy to see she is now looking better than Farkas in the polls. The question will be whether those people actually get out and vote. Farkas has some dedicated loyal supporters.
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- Thread starter Always_Biking
- Start date
Silence&Motion
Senior Member
That Janet Brown poll (from the CBC link) has some interesting crosstabs that look pretty good for Gondek:
- 91% of Gondek supporters approve of Nenshi. Clearly she's seen by many as the successor to Nenshi, which is good for her given that Nenshi won more than 50% of the vote last election.
- While Davison's support is pretty mixed, most of his supporters are right-wing voters rather than centrist or left-wing voters. So he's cutting into Farkas's potential voters more than Gondek. I was worried about this because progressive voters have a habit of running to centre-right candidates in order to block far-right candidates (hello Mayor John Tory)
- Farkas has the highest name recognition (73%) but only 28% say they'd consider voting for him. That's 45% of the electorate that has written him off with only 28% of voters left to reach. By comparison, only 30% of the electorate has written off Gondek with 34% left to reach and she already has an edge among decided voters.
JoeUrban
Active Member
My issue with Davison is him seeming to be in the pocket of CSEC. Which could be unfortunate since he might be a good candidate otherwise but that just leaves a bad taste in my mouth. And really with only Gondek and Farkas seeming capable of winning vs just splitting a vote it has come down to them.
Colinfill
Active Member
Gondek becoming mayor with Farkas and Davison out as city councilors will be ideal
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JoeUrban
Active Member
Has there been any polling for any of the wards or just mayoral? Curious on Carra's odds.Lots of online talk of focusing on one candidate to try to get him out but at the same time talk is cheap.
Silence&Motion
Senior Member
I was just in Inglewood and saw a lot of signs for Naomi Withers. Then again, back in 2017 I saw a lot more signs for Chris Davis than Evan Woolley, but Davis got absolutely destroyed in the actual election. I remember that, because Davis wrote a sour grapes letter afterwards blaming his loss on renters who don't pay taxes.
ByeByeBaby
Active Member
It's like when I hear that pro athletes or musicians were born after September 11, 2001 and freak out over how old I am, Davison's given me something of a midlife crisis; he's two years younger than me but he's firmly in the trough of the old boys club.
I explained to an out-of-town colleague the other day that the race was basically between three councillors, one who thinks government exists to help people, one who thinks government exists to help billionaires, and one who thinks government should not exist at all. I wish the election could be fought on the finer points of dedicating transit lanes or housing affordability, but it's really that simple.
Sambo
New Member
Nah, we need a center right.
Silence&Motion
Senior Member
darwink
Senior Member
Gondek isn't centre right?
MichaelS
Senior Member
I just got back from advanced voting this morning, and I can't remember if we had do to this in the past, but I had to fill out my name and address at the top of my ballot form. Maybe, just can't remember. Why I am curious is, will this lead to massive long line ups on election day? I was able to walk in and out, but still the process from first sitting down to getting confirmation my ballot was counted was probably 3-4 minutes. Seems quick and reasonable, but if you are in a line with 50 people, you should prepare to have a long wait.
CBBarnett
Senior Member
I don't recall either. Will be interesting to see turnout and the advanced vote share. From the city press releases advanced voting is running 2 - 3X ahead of 2017. If that trend holds, we might have 30-40% of votes already in before election day.
The other curious thing from looking at city election data records, last election was the highest turnout in 40 years at 58%. I am biased because I follow municipal stuff, but always amazes me that we have 40%+ of voters (like 300,000+ voters) who don't even bother with this whole thing. And that's the high-water line: during the mid-2000s we were in the 30% turnout range.
darwink
Senior Member
I believe since they aren't doing a voters list, this is the next best method.
Mountain Man
Senior Member
Is it maybe due to the advance voting being done in only a few locations, and not in your usual neighbourhood polling station? Think I'm going to vote today, still not sure who to vote for in ward 7, know 3 for sure I won't vote for though haha.
Urban Outdoorsman
Active Member
I'm also in ward 7. What are your thoughts on McRae? As far as I can tell she's pretty similar to Farrell, and probably had the best shot of beating Terry Wong (the NIMBY candidate)