[darwink]

Given how reliable the high-level 10 year old estimates for constructing a greenfield rail line in Calgary have proven to be, I'm not sure I would want to rely entirely on 40 year old construction cost estimates as the basis for a decision today.

I agree on the estimate as a whole. But costs for both options should inflate at roughly the same rate. Whether the incremental cost to go 300 kph is worth it for the extra revenue, fair enough, though I'd also look at how high frequency rail evolved into going full HSR after seeing their tradeoffs (and they are building through much more difficult country) to inform an educated opinion before a study reconfirmed it.

An interesting part that only was in a study which no longer is publicly accessible commissioned by AAMDC, was looking at the amount of reduced value land, and sterilized land for various options, as you could either pay for the reduced value or do things like having far more grade separations. The Greenfield option in that study was estimated to use/sterilize/impact less than half of the land as the CPR option.

includes total passengers flying Calgary to Edmonton or actual Calgary to Edmonton air passengers;

They used in person surveys to tease that out, intercepting people in airports.

 

[Red Star]

I suspect this effect would be very small; you could live in Carstairs today, get affordable housing and take a 45 minute commute to downtown Calgary. Yet almost no one does this; almost no one even lives in Crossfield for a 30 minute commute. And sure, sitting on a train is easier than driving. But you could also live in Airdrie, Okotoks, Cochrane or Chestermere and have a roughly 45 minute transit commute to downtown Calgary - with nearly door-to-door service. There are 180,000 people living in these places, and only 11 buses need to be run every morning to handle the demand; I don't think all of the buses are full, either. Maybe 0.3% of the people in these places choose to do this commute.

This happens in places like New York and San Francisco where home prices are crazy, home building is slow and virtually all of the developable land has been taken. I love Calgary, but we do not compare to New York or San Francisco in this way.

The other place where this happens is when there are two nearby but different metro areas; couples will have one person working in Baltimore and one in Washington and live in between, or one in academia in New Haven and one in finance in New York. I suspect this would also be relatively infrequent.

I have a co-worker that takes the Airdire ICE into work everyday and he hates it. It's slightly cheaper than driving. His two biggest complaints are:

-The bus is slow and gets stuck in traffic along Deerfoot
-Last bus to leave downtown Calgary is a little after 5pm. So if he has to work OT, he's stranded.

 

[YYCguy]

I have a co-worker that takes the Airdire ICE into work everyday and he hates it. It's slightly cheaper than driving. His two biggest complaints are:

-The bus is slow and gets stuck in traffic along Deerfoot
-Last bus to leave downtown Calgary is a little after 5pm. So if he has to work OT, he's stranded.

The City of Airdrie is definitely targeting a niche market here. To hear City officials talk, they seem to think this a highly successful and well used service. If it’s so successful, I don’t know why they haven’t expanded the hours of operation. It would also be useful for some Airdrie residents to have a service to/from YYC airport. As it stands now, you either drive or take an expensive taxi to the airport or an even more expensive one back.

 

[Surrealplaces]

I have a co-worker that takes the Airdire ICE into work everyday and he hates it. It's slightly cheaper than driving. His two biggest complaints are:

-The bus is slow and gets stuck in traffic along Deerfoot
-Last bus to leave downtown Calgary is a little after 5pm. So if he has to work OT, he's stranded.

I have a couple of coworkers who live in Airdrie and they have the same complaints. They drive to work instead.