kEiThZ
Superstar
Good article on allies becoming impatient with Canada.
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- Thread starter kEiThZ
- Start date
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
I don't think a lot of Canadians understand that the Russians can actually threaten our interests in the Arctic.
Russia's new combat icebreaker built for Arctic dominance - Asia Times
Russia's new combat icebreaker, known as the Project 23550 Ivan Papanin, has embarked on factory sea trials, signaling Russia’s intensified strategicasiatimes.com
From the Globe:
Ottawa buys Arctic hangar next to NORAD base after Chinese, Russian interest
Arctic community of Inuvik has come under scrutiny for possible foreign espionage, reaching the interest of Canadian forces counterintelligence unit, records show
www.theglobeandmail.com
Doesn't anyone keep tabs on the comings and goings to a location as sensitive as this? Passenger lists should be auto-forwarded to RCMP/CSIS.
AoD
Admiral Beez
Superstar
It’s always best to post the paywall free version for those without a Globe sub, https://archive.is/0qiTKFrom the Globe:
Ottawa buys Arctic hangar next to NORAD base after Chinese, Russian interest
Arctic community of Inuvik has come under scrutiny for possible foreign espionage, reaching the interest of Canadian forces counterintelligence unit, records show
Doesn't anyone keep tabs on the comings and goings to a location as sensitive as this? Passenger lists should be auto-forwarded to RCMP/CSIS.
AoD
Admiral Beez
Superstar
I wonder what the CAF (Canadian Armed Forces) would look like at 2% spend. I expect we could get moving on the submarine replacement program for one.
While it's easy to blame Justin for our international shame, all our PM's since late 1980s are at fault. The decline from 2% defence spend began with Mulroney's budget 1988 of 1.99% of GDP (at the height of the Cold War, FFS), and with the very worst of all time being Harper's 2014 budget, where defence spending dropped to an embarrassing 0.99% of GDP.
To get our spending to over 2% would require a nearly 50% increase in defence spending. We'd need either a serious revenue cut elsewhere or tax/deficit increase to cover that.
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Northern Light
Superstar
I'm hearing that Prime Minister Trudeau will announce Canada's explicit committment to get to 2% of GDP on Defense at the NATO summit and that a commitment to buy new submarines will also be announced.
I'm trying to confirm which subs we will get, its not clear if that will be in the announcement. I believe we were leaning to the South Korean ones, but the Japanese also had a model we took a look at along with the Spanish Navantia.
I'm trying to confirm which subs we will get, its not clear if that will be in the announcement. I believe we were leaning to the South Korean ones, but the Japanese also had a model we took a look at along with the Spanish Navantia.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Good guess.
Canada launching process to acquire up to 12 conventionally-powered submarines - Canada.ca
Canada is the country with the largest coastline in the world – an underwater surveillance capability is crucial to our security and sovereignty.
Now let's see if the Americans stop yelling. I don't think it's enough yet, given the years of talk with no results.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Nice. This was probably held back until now to appease expected ribbing at the NATO summit.Good guess.
Canada launching process to acquire up to 12 conventionally-powered submarines - Canada.ca
Canada is the country with the largest coastline in the world – an underwater surveillance capability is crucial to our security and sovereignty.www.canada.ca
Now let's see if the Americans stop yelling. I don't think it's enough yet, given the years of talk with no results.
It's too bad we didn't get the SSNs back in the early 1990s. Washington opposed us getting them, and the penny pinching government in Ottawa seized the opportunity to back pedal.
As an arctic nation we need AIP subs. Ideally nukes.
kEiThZ
Superstar
The fundamental problem for our governments (both this one and the next one) is that they love to brag about how fiscally sound they are and then refuse to spend on defence. Kinda like a friend who brags about how much they make but always forgets to bring his wallet to dinner, never offers to buy you a drink and always orders a premium beer when somebody else is buying. Eventually you stop calling them out. Sure, you're still friends. But it's restricted to the entirely obligatory events where everybody is invited. That's kinda what is happening to Canada. Founding member of NATO and Five Eyes now not included in AUKUS. And possibly going to be threatened with further exclusion from various friendshoring deals. Now that there's economic consequences and the business community is screaming at the government, they have to move past tokenism. It's an open question though, whether anybody is going to believe them, given past behaviour.
It's not much of a real project at all. The actual project office was a handful of officers doing some definition work and talking to various OEMs to see what is on the market. The reason they are making this announcement is because they need something to announce to take the heat off. So no, they don't have a submarine picked. And the very fact that it was announced in DC (vs Canada), should tell you how panicked of a move this was.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
It should be nuclear-powered SSNs. With the RAN getting SSNs, and everyone else including the Brazilians getting SSNs of some sort, the US opposition to RCN nuclear subs is off now.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Timelines don't allow for nuclear submarines. The Victoria Class is going to be out of service middle of next decade. They need something immediately. SSN-AUKUS won't even enter Australian service till the 2040s.
If we genuinely want nuclear submarines, we could consider a split fleet for 2040 and beyond. But that requires a level of planning on par with say building HSR. I don't think it's a coincidence that Canada is the only G7 country that lacks both HSR and amphibious military capabilities. We have a proven inability to undertake major national projects. I don't expect that will change with nuclear submarines.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
True. We should buy off the shelf AIP SSKs made offshore now to run until the late-2040s, and then have SSNs on order to enter service in the 2050s.
Will we buy off the shelf AIP SSKs for expediency, or spend to create an in-house submarine building program, only to abandon the hard won expertise once the final boat leaves the yard? My vote is to forgo the industrial credits and buy them from Japan or wherever asap.
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lenaitch
Senior Member
'Scuz me if I hold my applause.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Canadians are some combination of dumb, gullible and unconcerned with defence issues. I am always surprised though, when Canadian politicians assume the same for foreign politicians. Who do they think is falling for this announcement?
kEiThZ
Superstar
Exactly as I said.....