Cowtown
Senior Member
By Jan 6th Alberta will be at about 9,000 a day, but that will down from the peak of around 14-15K. Just a guess.
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- Thread starter Mountain Man
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Cowtown
Senior Member
I saw it at 488,000 in the US yesterday. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/30/us-new-daily-covid-cases-record-omicron-spreads
"A startling 488,000 cases were reported Wednesday, but even that figure is likely an undercount of the true number"
I'm sure the actual count is way higher, maybe even by as much as 50%.
ByeByeBaby
Active Member
Here's a figure I put together to compare the previous waves and the current wave. The lines are the 7 day average. Omicron is moving at 4 times the speed of the previous variants. Given a provincial government that likes to do the wrong thing for two weeks then do the right thing after the wrong thing has failed, it's a terrifying thing. Also, the Best Summer Ever wave is likely underreported by a factor of about 2, given the province stopping contact tracing in August. The current advice to not get PCR tests unless needed means that the current count is probably underreported by a factor of much more than 2 as people self-test and hopefully quarantine.
Note that the fall wave that overwhelmed the health care system doesn't look much bigger than the others in terms of new cases; that undersurveillance probably is a major factor of this.
Also terrifying is that omicron is almost entirely in Calgary and Edmonton right now; it hasn't made its way out to the much less vaccinated rural areas yet. If it does -- and the only thing I can think of that would stop it would be strong governmental action with high local compliance -- then it could be really ugly.
My guess for January 6th is 15,000 new daily cases. It's hard to tell how seriously everybody is taking this, but the anecdotes I've heard is not as serious as they should.
Note that the fall wave that overwhelmed the health care system doesn't look much bigger than the others in terms of new cases; that undersurveillance probably is a major factor of this.
Also terrifying is that omicron is almost entirely in Calgary and Edmonton right now; it hasn't made its way out to the much less vaccinated rural areas yet. If it does -- and the only thing I can think of that would stop it would be strong governmental action with high local compliance -- then it could be really ugly.
My guess for January 6th is 15,000 new daily cases. It's hard to tell how seriously everybody is taking this, but the anecdotes I've heard is not as serious as they should.
Definitely not taken as seriously as previous waves. I can't count how many times I've heard people say that Omicron is a weaker version of the virus and that's it's nothing more than a common cold.
I don't know that it is or isn't, but myself, I'm still waiting to see more data as time goes on. How it affected SA, will be different than how it affects Canada due to age groups etc..
Yeah, the number seems to vary depending on the source, but is usually pretty close. I see in the US yesterday they are already reporting over half a million new cases. It will be interesting to see what direction this goes in the US. Looking the numbers in the past couple of weeks is a decent indicator. While not nearly as bad as the US, it's still serious, and possibly an indication of what we might expect here.
darwink
Senior Member
I’m worried about it running through unvaccinated populations. In SA there were estimates that before omicron close to 100% of the population had immunity in some form - either vaccinated or a previous infection.
There are enough unvaccinated people over 20 to make January and February awful.
There are enough unvaccinated people over 20 to make January and February awful.
MissingMiddle
Active Member
In prior waves, we've been able to analyze wastewater for Covid traces. Turns out, it provides a very accurate measurement of the virus spreading days before testing data comes out - or in our situation, in lieu of it.
The city of Boston released data today, it makes the other waves look like a flat line:
Credit to Paul Bleicher, MD/PhD of Immunology, via Twitter
The city of Boston released data today, it makes the other waves look like a flat line:
Credit to Paul Bleicher, MD/PhD of Immunology, via Twitter
^That's crazy!
An article related to wastewater testing
Mountain Man
Senior Member
I knew like 5 people that had Covid through the first 4 waves, I know double that with Omicron, and we're just getting started on the 5th wave still! Heard on the news that Ontario expects 6 figure daily case counts before long! this is nuts!
Same here. I know a lot of people personally and through work who have tested positive (with a rapid test) We'll get some new numbers from Alberta Health, but they'll no doubt be way lower than the true number of positive cases due to people not going in for a PCR.
I could see Ontario getting true case numbers into 6 figures, but will they be able to do PCR testing on that many people on a daily basis? 2-3 weeks from now we'll have a good idea of the true affect when looking at hospital/death numbers.
I could see Ontario getting true case numbers into 6 figures, but will they be able to do PCR testing on that many people on a daily basis? 2-3 weeks from now we'll have a good idea of the true affect when looking at hospital/death numbers.
Col du Edworthy
Active Member
Same story for us, plus our family caught it right before Christmas and it's still working through everyone here. I was the first one to get symptoms so got a PCR but all the other tests were rapid only. AHS never told me if it was Omicron but thankfully it's been just mild cold symptoms for everyone, even our 2.5 yr old who isn't vaccinated (although at that age they really don't tell you much about how they're feeling).
Also interesting having had rapid tests to use is that my wife tested several times after I was positive and they were all negative until she had symptoms. It's also interesting to see how the different rapid tests returned positives for us, some were immediate and strong colouring while others took the entire 15 minutes and were very faint. Basically what I'm saying is rapid tests are helpful IMO to confirm after your symptomatic but I wouldn't rely on them to guarantee you don't have it. I'm of the mindset now that if you have cold symptoms and haven't had Omicron you probably have it.
Also interesting having had rapid tests to use is that my wife tested several times after I was positive and they were all negative until she had symptoms. It's also interesting to see how the different rapid tests returned positives for us, some were immediate and strong colouring while others took the entire 15 minutes and were very faint. Basically what I'm saying is rapid tests are helpful IMO to confirm after your symptomatic but I wouldn't rely on them to guarantee you don't have it. I'm of the mindset now that if you have cold symptoms and haven't had Omicron you probably have it.
MissingMiddle
Active Member
Just a heads up from what I've read recently:
Depending on the stage of the infection, different tests may give different results. You can still be infectious and test negative for a rapid test, we don't really know yet where that infectious period ends. Rapid tests also have a decently high false negative when used improperly.
Additionally, the CDC recommendation to reduce isolation to 5 days isn't founded on being less infectious, it's because if everyone who has Covid had to isolate that the US systems would collapse, they need people working even if they're sick.
TL;DR: If you get Covid, please be careful about preemptively removing yourself from isolation, even at the advice of CDC/rapid tests. I know, I'm tired of it all too.
Depending on the stage of the infection, different tests may give different results. You can still be infectious and test negative for a rapid test, we don't really know yet where that infectious period ends. Rapid tests also have a decently high false negative when used improperly.
Additionally, the CDC recommendation to reduce isolation to 5 days isn't founded on being less infectious, it's because if everyone who has Covid had to isolate that the US systems would collapse, they need people working even if they're sick.
TL;DR: If you get Covid, please be careful about preemptively removing yourself from isolation, even at the advice of CDC/rapid tests. I know, I'm tired of it all too.
darwink
Senior Member
The tests distributed by the government (Abbot Panbio and BTNX) aren't certified for asymptomatic screening. Only a handful are and they usually cost $1-2 bucks more a unit, so the government didn't buy them.
Col du Edworthy
Active Member
Didn't know that. Before our experience with them I had believed them to be a useful (albeit imperfect) tool for testing before going somewhere (like a family Christmas party). I look at them now more like a tool to quickly check if your symptoms are positive and to alleviate pressure on the labs so they can test individuals who need PCR results. I know there have been efforts to explain what they are and when to use them but I think that messaging has been somewhat misunderstood by the general public