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Patrick.1980 said:
Anyone else expecting to see a massive spike in cases a few weeks from now?
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We'll certainly see a huge spike coming soon. When and how high of a spike I don't know, but looking at some of the other provinces, it's clear that covid is spreading extremely quickly. I don't know if it's all related to Omicron, but whatever the cause may be, the numbers are rising rapidly.
 
Alex_YYC said:
Yeah, Quebec and Ontario have exploded, like increased 5 fold in a week! Nova Scotia and PEI who have had COVID under control are also skyrocketing.
Here in redneck central Alberta we’ll likely be into the thousands of daily new cases in a week or so.
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This morning Nova Scotia is at 436 cases....the highest daily number since the beginning of the pandemic 😯
 
The number of (known) active cases in the province jumped 25% over the weekend. And weekends tend to have lower case counts, since there's not as much testing. Wait until we get the numbers from tomorrow. The new cases announced on Tuesday are typically the highest of the week.
 
Mountain Man said:
Are places seeing a jump in hospital admissions as well?
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Lag cases by 2-3 weeks, and we will first see a stop in the decline, before it goes up more first.

Realistically if it is as bad as R rates indicate, which it might be, we will see a movie like pandemic among the unvaccinated - it just ripping through entire towns and regions in a matter of weeks. Even if it is just 1% of the 20 year old+ unvaccinated that require hospitalization (half-ish the past observed rate), and none of the others it is 5064 people simultaneously in hospital or dead over 6-8 weeks.

It is so virulent that it will rip through and get everyone it sounds like.

When the German Health minister made the observation that the unvaccinated by the spring will have either have been infected or dead, he was saying on balance. With Omicron, it seems to be an almost sure thing.

This will be the worst it has been. To a crazy degree.

Like, maybe actully stock up on household consumables bad? Because supply chains will fall apart just due to absenteeism if it goes through the population that fast.
 
It is spreading incomprehensibly quickly, but if we use other jurisdictions as a case study, hospitalizations and deaths haven't proportionally matched. I'm referring to South Africa specifically. Given our (relatively) high vaccination rate, I wouldn't expect too large of an increase in severe outcomes even though case numbers will certainly skyrocket. It will among the willfully unvaccinated, but at this point, I wonder why they're even allowed access to medical resources anymore.

Get vaxxed as soon as you can, wear a mask, and don't unnecessarily expose yourself (concerts, parties, non-essential travel, etc). If you do that, you're not the problem.

Covid is a fixable problem that we've chosen not to solve, this current cycle will continue until we realize that.
 
Silence&Motion said:
The number of (known) active cases in the province jumped 25% over the weekend. And weekends tend to have lower case counts, since there's not as much testing. Wait until we get the numbers from tomorrow. The new cases announced on Tuesday are typically the highest of the week.
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Yep, 522 cases in NS today and over 5K in Quebec. NS was at 22 new cases, and Quebec was at 1200 on Dec 7! You can see the massive spread in just two weeks. No question this will spread quickly here in Alberta. It's just a matter of waiting to see how many deaths and hospitalizations we will get.
 
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Here's yesterday's projections from pypm.ca; startling stuff.
ab_4_1_1220_linear_omicron.png


The three scenarios in the lower figures, A, B and C reflect scenarios where omicron severity is the same as delta (C), 0.5x (B) and 0.3x (A). The difference is whether the ICUs are triaging three days after Christmas or two days after New Year's. Exponential growth is no joke, as we have seen in the first wave, the second wave, the third wave and the 'best summer ever' fourth wave. And it makes rapid responses so much more important. If history is any guide, Kenney will make strong statements today urging everybody except him to take responsibility as the cases ramp up, to be followed in two weeks with minor, ineffective responses, to be followed two weeks after that with what he should be doing today and a lot of avoidable deaths in between. I hope the modelling is off, because 2022 will not start well if things go as projected.
 
darwink said:
Lag cases by 2-3 weeks, and we will first see a stop in the decline, before it goes up more first.

Realistically if it is as bad as R rates indicate, which it might be, we will see a movie like pandemic among the unvaccinated - it just ripping through entire towns and regions in a matter of weeks. Even if it is just 1% of the 20 year old+ unvaccinated that require hospitalization (half-ish the past observed rate), and none of the others it is 5064 people simultaneously in hospital or dead over 6-8 weeks.

It is so virulent that it will rip through and get everyone it sounds like.

When the German Health minister made the observation that the unvaccinated by the spring will have either have been infected or dead, he was saying on balance. With Omicron, it seems to be an almost sure thing.

This will be the worst it has been. To a crazy degree.

Like, maybe actully stock up on household consumables bad? Because supply chains will fall apart just due to absenteeism if it goes through the population that fast.
Click to expand...
I think you’re right. This is probably the stage where the unvaccinated are most at risk. The narrative out there is that Omicron is milder than Delta for those that catch it, and it may well be for the vaccinated, but it’s giving a false sense of security for the unvaccinated.

A lot of unvaccinated people will be okay, but because this one spreads so rapidly it’s going to hit large numbers of people, and a fair number of unvaccinated are going to be severely affected.
 
ByeByeBaby said:
Here's yesterday's projections from pypm.ca; startling stuff.
ab_4_1_1220_linear_omicron.png


The three scenarios in the lower figures, A, B and C reflect scenarios where omicron severity is the same as delta (C), 0.5x (B) and 0.3x (A). The difference is whether the ICUs are triaging three days after Christmas or two days after New Year's. Exponential growth is no joke, as we have seen in the first wave, the second wave, the third wave and the 'best summer ever' fourth wave. And it makes rapid responses so much more important. If history is any guide, Kenney will make strong statements today urging everybody except him to take responsibility as the cases ramp up, to be followed in two weeks with minor, ineffective responses, to be followed two weeks after that with what he should be doing today and a lot of avoidable deaths in between. I hope the modelling is off, because 2022 will not start well if things go as projected.
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Agreed. Looking at all the graphs of places where Omicron has hit, the one thing in common in all of them is the increase in new cases is far sharper then in previous waves, and consistently they show record numbers. I'm sure Alberta will be no different.
 
MissingMiddle said:
I was looking at this from google:
View attachment 370951
Upon closer inspection, you're correct:
View attachment 370952

My bad, yeah this is not good at all
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At first, I too would have thought that 20 was the correct number as Australia has had amazingly low numbers, and for most of the pandemic, 20 new cases a day would actually be high. My daughter happened to mention the other day that Australia was getting hit hard.
 
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