salsa
Senior Member
^ It will be paid for using the billions in savings that the Fords have found.
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TheTigerMaster
Superstar
Well on more than one occasion, individuals with at least some credibility have been warning that this project is DOA and is very likely to go over budget once the EA and other preliminary work is completed. I don't find this random guy on Twitter to be particularly credible, but I would not be surprised if what he says is true. And if what he says is true, this project is DOA.
innsertnamehere
Superstar
50% cost overrun is extremely unlikely, the cost estimate is right in the range it should be at compared to the spadina extension. I can't see more than a couple hundred million in cost overruns, really, and even then not really likely.
The only way it can go that high is if they start demanding ATC on the entire bloor line, which I think they want anyway. That is more of a general upgrade already on the TTC capital wish list though, not directly part of this project. Its going to be needed in the next 15 years no matter what.
Its easy to imagine huge cost overruns on this, but reality is that it is a relatively simple subway extension with 2 small stations and 1 larger one, and simple ground conditions.
The only way it can go that high is if they start demanding ATC on the entire bloor line, which I think they want anyway. That is more of a general upgrade already on the TTC capital wish list though, not directly part of this project. Its going to be needed in the next 15 years no matter what.
Its easy to imagine huge cost overruns on this, but reality is that it is a relatively simple subway extension with 2 small stations and 1 larger one, and simple ground conditions.
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TheTigerMaster
Superstar
Well we already know that the Line 2 extension will be more expensive per km than TYSSE. But I have a really hard time believing that it will cost substantially more. $600 Million/km seems impossible to me. Either they're lumping in something else with it to get that number, or the rebuilding of our Kennedy Station will cost a lot more than previously anticipated. But this project has been full of surprises since day 1.
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
If what @AGrumpyHobbit says is true, what does it mean for this extension? Is it DOA?
innsertnamehere
Superstar
The Kennedy rebuilt is lumped under the Eglinton Crosstown project, and its less of a rebuild and more of a new underground platform for the LRT and some improvements to the GO station.
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
@AGrumpyHobbit says that he got the information from memos written by transit experts working on the project. Shouldn't the public be able to gain access to the memos with a FOI request?
ehlow
Senior Member
I'm going to start a twitter account called @AHappyHobbit and tweet that it will cost 1 billion less than expected, source: memos by transit experts
Maybe I'm unaware who this AGrumpyHobbit is or if he/she has a reputation for having access to transit info for some reason, but to it's bizarre to me that someone tweets something and it's taken as fact. How did denfromoakvillemilton come across this? Just searching twitter for "Scarborough subway"?
Platform 27
Active Member
Pretty sure this is just a case of broken telephone, and all this Hobbit fellow is talking about is a memo that we already learned about a few months ago.
denfromoakvillemilton
Senior Member
It actually came across my dashboard. No search involved.I'm going to start a twitter account called @AHappyHobbit and tweet that it will cost 1 billion less than expected, source: memos by transit experts
Maybe I'm unaware who this AGrumpyHobbit is or if he/she has a reputation for having access to transit info for some reason, but to it's bizarre to me that someone tweets something and it's taken as fact. How did denfromoakvillemilton come across this? Just searching twitter for "Scarborough subway"?
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
I'm going to start a twitter account called @AHappyHobbit and tweet that it will cost 1 billion less than expected, source: memos by transit experts
Maybe I'm unaware who this AGrumpyHobbit is or if he/she has a reputation for having access to transit info for some reason, but to it's bizarre to me that someone tweets something and it's taken as fact. How did denfromoakvillemilton come across this? Just searching twitter for "Scarborough subway"?
I don't think anyone here is taking it as fact. We're just speculating.
aquateam
Active Member
Your dashboard? I have a mental image of you running over a transit planner with your car and the memo he was working on made its way onto your windshield
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denfromoakvillemilton
Senior Member
Your dashboard? I have a mental image of you running over a transit planner with your car and the memo he was working on made its way onto your windshield
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
Should I be calling the police?
We'd have better transit in this city if you'd quit murdering our planners.
We'd have better transit in this city if you'd quit murdering our planners.
Silence&Motion
Senior Member
While the exact numbers may be an exaggeration, is there any doubt that a plan this complex, which was hastily rammed through council primarily so that Ford and Stintz could use it for their respective mayoral campaigns, will not see it's final cost greatly increase? The Spacing.ca report suggests that transit officials estimates in May had the project at $400 million more that what the politicians were saying - and that estimate itself may still be a low-ball.
Now that Tory has won the election, several questions emerge:
1. How much higher will cost estimates climb?
2. Will Queens Park and Ottawa be any more willing to chip in additional money to support the project?
3. How willing will Tory himself be to sacrifice his own transit agenda (SmartTrack) to build the Ford/Stintz plan, if it starts eating up all available transit dollars?
4. Will Tory (and council and Queen's Park) use SmartTrack as political cover to backtrack on their support of the Ford/Stintz plan?
I can foresee the same kind of push back from transit experts to the idea of building two parallel rapid transit lines only 2km apart in Scarborough as there was to Ford's idea of spending $8 billion to bury the entire Eglinton LRT line. At that time, council had a rare moment of sanity, when it rejected Ford and reinstated the original LRT plan. I really hope Tory is sane enough himself not to plunge $billions into two lines that serve the same basic purpose.
Now that Tory has won the election, several questions emerge:
1. How much higher will cost estimates climb?
2. Will Queens Park and Ottawa be any more willing to chip in additional money to support the project?
3. How willing will Tory himself be to sacrifice his own transit agenda (SmartTrack) to build the Ford/Stintz plan, if it starts eating up all available transit dollars?
4. Will Tory (and council and Queen's Park) use SmartTrack as political cover to backtrack on their support of the Ford/Stintz plan?
I can foresee the same kind of push back from transit experts to the idea of building two parallel rapid transit lines only 2km apart in Scarborough as there was to Ford's idea of spending $8 billion to bury the entire Eglinton LRT line. At that time, council had a rare moment of sanity, when it rejected Ford and reinstated the original LRT plan. I really hope Tory is sane enough himself not to plunge $billions into two lines that serve the same basic purpose.