[ssiguy2]

Having a ST spur off of the mainline to STS seems to be such an easy option and with the money saved they could elevate all the way to U, Scar.

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

Having a ST spur off of the mainline to STS seems to be such an easy option and with the money saved they could elevate all the way to U, Scar.

I am sure they can do more than that with the extra money, including extending it all the way to Malvern.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Tory will not introduce a longer / more expensive version of SSE for the council's vote if he knows the council is going to kill the whole project. He will introduce a baseline version, that has a better chance to pass.

Of course, there is a possibility that someone on the council puts forward a motion to cancel SSE, regardless to any modifications. This is more difficult procedurally, but not out of question. Or, the council may not take any initiative until the project is up to the final approval, and then vote it down instead of approving it. I doubt that either of these scenarios will happen, but they cannot be ruled out.

However, dreams of SSE-haters that the project will implode after the project team puts forward an untenable modification of the route, will not materialize. Such dreams are plain silly.

Tory allegedly favourited the the alignment that cost $600 Million more - that's why he pushed so hard for it to be included. He's since said that he's not going to announce a preferred alignment.

 

[Rainforest]

Tory allegedly favourited the the alignment that cost $600 Million more - that's why he pushed so hard for it to be included. He's since said that he's not going to announce a preferred alignment.

Tory was interested in including more easterly options in the study; that does not mean he favored such options.

There is no evidence he pushed very hard for them to be included. He could just mention them to the project team, and the latter decided to include them in the preliminary study as it is relatively easy to do.

Tory's main rationale may have been to appear objective and open-minded, without having any serious hope that a longer subway route may be viable. Even if he had such hope, he might look at the ridership forecasts produced by the study, realize that the gains are miniscule compared to the extra cost, and ditch the idea.

He will not present a notion that is bound to fail in the council.

I might be briefly interested in a new microwave, and ask the sales clerk a couple of questions about it. That would not imply I definitely want to buy it, or will be terribly disappointed if it appears not to have features I am looking for.

 

[Rainforest]

Having a ST spur off of the mainline to STS seems to be such an easy option and with the money saved they could elevate all the way to U, Scar.

This is an interesting option, but definitely not an easy one (a number of technical issues to solve, plus the capacity constraints).

 

[nfitz]

Having a ST spur off of the mainline to STS seems to be such an easy option and with the money saved they could elevate all the way to U, Scar.

Replace rapid transit running every 6 minutes with a spur off a heavy-rail line that runs only every 15 minutes? So what, the service on the spur would run every 30 minutes? And then most riders would have to still change at Kennedy to complete their trips? Even if SmartTrack runs 8 trains an hour instead of 4, you are still looking at one train every 15 minutes.

I don't think this is the answer.

 

[cplchanb]

Well eventually when they do make up their mind I really hope that they will hire external consultants and project managers. The yus was a real cock up and they would be doing a huge disservice to the public and themselves by repeating it regardless of whether they can save money or learn from the past. Also does anyone know if there are potential developments at ir near the proposed stations? It would be an awful shame and a missed revenue opportunity if it all turns out like Sheppard. Are they going to sell development rights over their stations??

 

[nfitz]

Well eventually when they do make up their mind I really hope that they will hire external consultants and project managers.

What do you mean? What's wrong with the ones they already hired? http://www.ttc.ca/About_the_TTC/Com...zation_Station_Design_Services_Contract_F.pdf and http://www.ttc.ca/About_the_TTC/Com...zation_Systems_Design_and_Management_Serv.pdf

The yus was a real cock up and they would be doing a huge disservice to the public and themselves by repeating it regardless of whether they can save money or learn from the past.

Wouldn't the management services contract they've already approved suggest they have learned from the past?

 

[BurlOak]

So here is the best I can come up with. (Someone with more brains and more graphic skills can carry it farther). I assumed maximum grades of 3% (I ignored the topography of the ground and just was conerned about grade-separation elevations) and curve radius of 250m. Station platforms are 120m long and 6m wide. The train is 3m wide and 5m tall - 6m vertical clearance provided.

There are a few areas that need attention.

Ellesmere, where the STC branch occurs
Kennedy where reduction to 2 tracks occurs
Danforth where grade-separation is required
Interchange with Lakeshore East (LSE).

Some work can be done concurrently, but I will start at the LSE and Danforth.

Yellow = GO ................... Red = Electric RER/SmartTrack

Staging
- Construct Sheet Pile Abutments of Danforth Bridge through pavement in 2 stages (and pave over until ready).
- Clear Trees from rail ROW (ROW looks like it is actually about 14m wide)
- Construct Sheet piles along rail ROW +/- 350m north and south of Danforth.
- Construct new North Track on LSE to bridge over EB to NB GO ramp.
- Close GO corridor and institute free subway service from Kennedy. (SRT must still be open at this time).
- (Optional - also open B-D extension to Kingston Road – stations at Brimley/McCowan, LSE, Markham/Kingston).
- (B-D extension + free TTC at Kennedy should ease the inconvenience of the GO shutdown).
- (I looked at ways of staging this, but the rail corridor is quite thin, and the proximity of the tracks to Danforth/Midland intersection complicates things farther).
- Excavate between Sheet Pile walls.
- Erect Danforth Bridge Superstructure in 2 stages.
- Complete Bridge for North Track of LSE.
- Complete tie-in of SB to WE GO ramp.
- Re-open GO service. I will assume a closure of 6 months.
- Cannot have station at St. Clair, only farther SW due to the elevations that still exist.
- (I will leave it to the LSE people to determine where those stations should go (maybe Birchmount Warden).

 

[BurlOak]

Next up is the Ellesmere Interchange. The WB to SB track will go under the rail corridor, while the NB to EB track will be on the east side of the N-S corridor and simply curve off to the east. The tracks will go over Midland. Midland station removed. McCowan Station removed, although no technical reason why it cannot be kept.

Yellow = Diesel GO ..................... Red = Electric GO/SmartTrack

Staging
- SRT remains in operation
- Track Protection just East of existing tracks
- Construct East portion of tunnel for Radius=250m curve (just south of existing tunnel)
- Build East Track (Track 4) for GO service.
- Build East Platform.
- Build Centre portion of tunnel.
- Build Track 3 (2nd from East), also for GO service.
- Open NB and SB GO service at East Platform.
- Close SRT
- institute shuttle service from STC to Ellesmere.
- Complete western part of tunnel.
- Construct Tracks 1 and 2 (West), including Retaining wall separating Tracks 1 and 2
- Construction West Platform(s).
- Demolish and Reconstruct SRT elevated portion until McCowan.
- (Not on Critical Path – Construct Track and Stations to Malvern).
- Open full service.
- SRT Closure time = 3 years.

 

[BurlOak]

Finally, at Kennedy, the 4 tracks need to go into 2. This is a relatively easy operation.

Yellow = Diesel GO....................... Red = Electric GO/SmartTrack

Staging
- Construct New Track 3 (2nd from East)
- Construct Temporary Platform on West side of this new track.
- Switch Current GO service to new Track 3.
- Construct new East Platform and Track 4 (West).
- Full Go service with Track 3 and 4 and East platform.
- Close SRT and remove all SRT infrastructure.
- Construct Track 1 and 2 (West Tracks) and West Platform.

 

[BurlOak]

Here are a couple of sections of what the track/platform looks like along the way. The idea is that all trains stop at Ellesmere and Kennedy. If you want to go to Lawrence, you have to transfer off the GO and onto the RER/StartTrack a station before. Coming from the north, you can get off at Ellesmere and go to the higher EB platform to go to STC.

 

[BurlOak]

What will service be like?

Service (trains per hour)
...........................SmartTrack=RER...........................GO
At Agincourt...............10......................................... 5
At STC.......................10......................................... 3 (future)
At Ellesmere .............. 20 ......................................... 8
At Lawrence ...............20......................................... 8 (thru)
At Kennedy ............... 20 ......................................... 8
Thru Danforth ................................. 28


How much will this cost? Here are some very rough numbers. Some costs are shared between SmartTrack/RER and not just the STC branch. I tried to separate them.

$1000M = Elevated Track (7km)
$300M = STC Station
$200M = Centennial Station
$200M = Sheppard Station
$200M = Malvern Station
$300M = Ellesemere Interchange
$200M = Ellesmere Station
$400M = Ellesmere to Kennedy Track (4km)
$100M = Lawrence Station
$300M = Kennedy Station
$200M = Track Trenching & Retaining Walls (800m)
$100M = Danforth Bridge (20m)
$200M = LSE WB Bridge (1000m)
$200M = LSE Interchange
====================


$2.4B = Total STC Branch Cost
$1.5B = Total SmartTrack Cost
$1.5B = B-D ext. to Markham Rd. (optional)

$3.9B = Total
$5.4B = Total (with B-D ext.)

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

Excellent analysis BurlOak!

Can you explain why we need a B-D extension to Kingston? Why won't Scarborough East-Malvern LRT be sufficient?

 

[cplchanb]

What do you mean? What's wrong with the ones they already hired? http://www.ttc.ca/About_the_TTC/Com...zation_Station_Design_Services_Contract_F.pdf and http://www.ttc.ca/About_the_TTC/Com...zation_Systems_Design_and_Management_Serv.pdf

Wouldn't the management services contract they've already approved suggest they have learned from the past?

Uhh.. you do know that this is public works that were talking about....they will never learn nor be able to in most part be as competent as external consultants and management
I can guarantee that they are more likely to find some way to screw things up whether its delays or cost overruns