If they decide on an SRT corridor. All we know at this point is that the Bellamy corridor has been eliminated (as per council motion), and it seems like there's a strong hint that McCowan would be the preferred corridor. If it is in fact McCowan, there are lots of houses and businesses in the way of an at-grade subway.
Also, can anyone elaborate on the definition of "at-grade" in this context? Like at-grade with roads, or in an uncovered trench, or just ducking under/over roads?
There isn't any proposal to bring the subway at-grade at McCowan (as far as I'm aware). The proposal being examined by City staff is to extend the Line 2 subway north on the existing SRT corridor to Scarborough Centre, with potential extensions northeast to Malvern, using the corridor earmarked in the Transit City Scarborough LRT plan. The line would roughly look like this:
Pictured below is a rough design of Kennedy Station component of this proposal, with a "loop-back" to get on the SRT corridor. The loop-back shown below are of 100m and 150m radii, requiring roughly 500 m and 700 m of tunnelling respectively. A 100 metre radius is tighter than any turn in the system, should be able to be achieved if we switch Line 2 from 25 metre cars, to 17 metre cars. This is a reasonable proposal, since the Line 2 cars are up for retirement soon. A 150 metre curve radius, the same as the curve east of Union Station, can be achieved with our current 25 metre cars, but speed restrictions would need to be in place through the curve.
The TTC previously came back with much larger curves, requiring several kilometres of tunnelling, but that was because they didn't want speed restrictions. Council has directed them to reexamine the options, and I expect them to come back with options include tighter radii, with less tunnelling, but with speed restrictions in place.
Between Eglinton and Lawrence, there's more than enough right-of-way to fit a subway track here:
Between Lawrence and Ellesmere generally looks like this. A few metres of a dozen or so properties would need to be expropriated. Almost all the properties are using the needed space for parking, as can be seen here. Expropriation should be achievable here.