But we have to take into account
the new funding model from the Federal government that would take
50% of the tab once it's shovel ready. Since it's not ready yet, we really are in the dark until the province decides what to do. One thing they made absolutely clear, they will build a subway, not an LRT nor upgrade the SRT, subway only. Let's not forget that it's the province that took the subway football and ran with it to get their MPP elected. I would expect them to pay for the extra cost after the feds pay the 50% share of the cost. Since the city is already collecting the tax levy for Scarborough ($1 Billion), whatever would be remaining should be the province.
What makes the whole mess look so bad is the sharp drop of ridership which is explained by
cutting 2 stations and have Smarttrack cannibalizing the subway. If both the city and the province wants to save face, Smarttrack East, north of Kennedy, must be dropped and the 3 stop plan reinstated to get that ridership back, which falls under subway technology threshold (14,000) and serve riders living north of the 401. One way to control costs is to have the subway go above ground in the SRT corridor and elevated at STC and beyond. City did pass a motion (I think) to have above ground studied.
One way or another, the transit plan in Scarborough will happen and these are the scenarios for the province to consider under the new numbers:
Funding under Trudeau Government
Old option A from Queen's Park: 3 stop subway at $4.3B
- $2.15B from the feds
- $1.5B province (assuming they won't commit more)
- 650M$ city (originally on the hook for $1B)
Old option B from Queen's Park: If the city refuse to pay, it's 2 stop subway: The city is collecting the levy so I don't see this happening.
New Scarborough plan:
1 stop Subway + Crosstown East at $4.5B
- $2.25B Feds
- $1.5B province (assuming they stick with this number)
- $750M City (originally on the hook for $1B)
What if?
Province submitting 3 stop subway + Crosstown East to Ottawa for funding and dropping Smarttrack East to fix the ridership issue back to it's original 14,000 figure?
3 stop subway + Crosstown East ($4.3B+$1.6B=$5.9B)
- $2.95B from the feds
- $1.5B province (if the province doesn't move from this number)
- $1.45B $ city (The extra $450M should be funded by the province)
Building the 1 stop subway under this ridership would be a monumental mistake unless they can cut the cost by having it above ground. I base my analysis on the fact that the province will not reopen the LRT debate, which they made clear on numerous occasion, regardless of what the city says. So if it must be subway, the ridership must be fixed and only the 3 stop subway in combination with cancelling Smarttrack East stations north of Kennedy, while having Crosstown East bringing extra ridership can accomplish that.
Pricy? Yes, but your ridership is there. If we were under the Harper government who had only committed $660M for the line, yes this would be pure insanity. Under the Trudeau government, yes it is pricy but it's still realistic to have the 3 stop subway and Crosstown East. The Federal government would take half of the costs while the city is already collecting the levy.
My opinion is, since the province is trapping the city into the subway plan, they should be paying for the extra $450M and extra costs, not the city who's already doing its part. That's because even if city council voted to get the LRT back, the province would just say ("NO", you're getting a subway), so that extra cost should be Queen's Park responsibility.
The city's responsibility is to have Tory drop Smarttrack East to get the ridership at a more optimal level. This 7,000 number is very bad for the amount being invested. If there's a way to double it, they have a responsibility to make it happen.
