Uh, Nanos also got 2004 exactly right, and the provincial election exactly right. I'd say that's a little more than luck.
Incidentally, I've started reading his occasional blog and watching his interviews on CPAC. He's one of the most astute Canadian political observers I've seen. It's definitely well worth a look.
I disagree with the claim that the only safe Liberal seats outside Ontario--I'm sorry, outside the GTA are Cartierville and Mount Royal. I'm not quite sure where to begin. I don't believe that a three point drop since last election will mean that dozens of seats that the Liberals won with margins of 10 percent or more are at risk. All of PEI? Newfoundland where they're furious with Harper and the NDP has no presence? A half dozen other seats in Montreal, including Westmount and the West Island? Wascana? Kitchener and Waterloo? Most of London? Kingston? The North? Vancouver Centre?
I fear we may be witnessing the cardinal sin of the Torontonian: failing to remember that there's an Ontario outside the GTA.
The difference between today and 1984 explaining the much higher number of seats for the Liberals has nothing to do with concentration. It has to do with the fact that there are two more major parties. Of course, on a percentage basis, their vote will drop. At the levels the Tories are polling, they would never have had a hope of winning an election in the three party days.
Here's a different poll from a couple days ago:
Liberals (33%) Edge Closer to Tories (35%)
March 25, 2008
For more information, contact:
Darrell Bricker
Recent Polls & Research
Ottawa, ON – A new Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global Television reveals that Stephane Dion’s Liberals (33%) are edging closer to Harper’s Conservatives (35%), placing these two leading parties in a statistical tie. Gaining two points since early March, and rising steadily since the middle February, the Liberal Party is narrowing the gap between itself and the reigning Tories.
Nationally, the NDP under Jack Layton is receiving support from 13% (down 2 points) of decided voters, while the Green Party has 8% support (down 1 point). Seven percent (7%) of Canadians remain undecided.
Within Quebec, the Bloc continues to lead, enjoying the support of 39% of decided voters (up 3 points), placing itself well ahead of the second-place Liberals (26%, no change), and the third-place Conservatives (22%, down 2 points). The NDP has the support of 9% of Quebecers, while the Green Party trails with just 3% support.
In seat-rich Ontario, the Conservatives (33%) continue to trail the Liberals (43%) by a significant margin, but still find themselves considerably ahead of the New Democratic Party (15%) and the Green Party (6%).
These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television from March 18 to March 20, 2008. For the survey, a representative randomly-selected sample of 1000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.
