[King of Kensington]

My prediciton for Elizabeth May is not based on these polling numbers (esp. given Atlantic sample sizes are so small). While there isn't a Liberal candidate in that riding, that in no way ensures that the Liberal vote there (around 25% last time) will flock to Elizabeth May. The NDP got second place there last time (32%), and the NDP vote there is mainly a blue collar vote, not a "bohemian/urban intelligentsia/creative class" vote like it is in Trinity-Spadina, and that group isn't as susceptible to the Green appeal (i.e. places like Cape Breton or Northern Ontario aren't exactly hotbeds of Green support). It would be very difficult for May to take the riding as a Green/Liberal - it would require that virtually all of the Liberal vote will flock like sheep to the Greens (in fact many may bolt to the Tories or the NDP and most of the NDP vote would collapse to support May (also not likely).

A smarter move for May would have been to run against John Baird (she lives in Ottawa after all), I think.

 

[Hydrogen]

She's be shredded there.

 

[adma]

She's be shredded there.

Relative to Central Nova, and with an equivalent Liberal-withdrawal sweetheart deal to boot? If that's the case, where *wouldn't* she be shredded?

 

[adma]

If you plug the most recent couple polls (Nanos, Harris/Decima) into the Election Forecaster, you get some pretty interesting results. Major gains for the Liberals in B.C. and Ontario, minor gains for the Tories and Liberals in Quebec, and minor gains for the Tories on the Praries (there's not much more for them to gain!). It projects, from the raw numbers, a total wipeout for the NDP in Ontario, but that's certainly not going to happen. That may be even worse news for the Tories: contrary to the NDP's rationalizations behind disappointing results in the 2004 election, people in Downtown Toronto ridings are smart enough to know they don't have to vote strategically since the Tories have no chance. That means that most of the NDP voters in Downtown Toronto and the other NDP seats will remain NDP, while a lot of NDP voters in no-hope suburban, rural, and mid-sized city seats are swinging to the Liberals in order to defeat Harper.

If we're to use such a benchmark, I wouldn't be so sure about the NDP's existing Ontario seats--perhaps Layton, Angus, Christopherson and the Windsor pair might survive, but as for the rest; well, in Toronto, it's Peggy Nash vs Gerard Kennedy, and Olivia Chow vs the condos...

 

[unimaginative2]

The NDP got second place there last time (32%), and the NDP vote there is mainly a blue collar vote, not a "bohemian/urban intelligentsia/creative class" vote like it is in Trinity-Spadina, and that group isn't as susceptible to the Green appeal (i.e. places like Cape Breton or Northern Ontario aren't exactly hotbeds of Green support).

What was the best Green riding last provincial election? Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound. Hardly bohemian/urban intelligentsia/creative class. The Greens have actually done rather poorly in places like that. Their hotbeds of support are in suburban and rural areas looking for a protest outlet. Central Nova, with its high-profile incumbent who's pissed a lot of people off, is a great choice.

I think you might well be right, adma. If the election were held tomorrow, there'd be some significant NDP losses in Ontario, but I think they'd still keep a decent number of seats. Charlie Angus might be alone up north, and they'll probably lose two of the three in Hamilton. I don't think Mathyssen or Nash would have much chance, either. The Windsor seats, Christopherson, and Layton are safe. Chow and Dewar are a tossup.

 

[King of Kensington]

First of all, I didn't mean to imply most of the Green vote came from creative class/urban intelligentsia types. They do great in ultra-safe Tory ridings too like Wild Rose and Dufferin-Caledon. My point is more that blue collar NDP voters are less susceptible to the Green appeal than their urban middle class supporters.

Second, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound is one of the most rightwing ridings in Ontario where the NDP is not a factor. A lot of small-"c" conservatives hate John Tory (who they think is too liberal) and voted Green in protest - that is, their opposition to Tory was from the right (and if Bill Murdoch hadn't very publicly distanced himself from Tory during the campaign - maybe there would have been even more rightwing votes bleeding away) Whatever one thinks of Harper I don't think he is hated that much by the Conservative base the way Tory was. But most of their decline came at the expense of the Liberals, so if that situation were to occur in Central Nova, May would be preaching to the converted. Whatever one thinks of Harper I don't think anyone believes he is hated that much by the Conservative base the way Tory was.

Central Nova isn't an agricultural riding the way that riding is. The NDP just doesn't get that many votes from farmers anymore (but note this is a phenomenon going on throughout the Western world). There are lots of people in unions, resource industries, etc. that vote NDP (like in Northern Ontario) in Central Nova, and this group has been just about the most unwilling group to abandon the NDP for the Greens. How did the Greens do in Sault Ste. Marie or Nickel Belt last time? A much, much better comparison than Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound.

 

[King of Kensington]

I think you might well be right, adma. If the election were held tomorrow, there'd be some significant NDP losses in Ontario.

Nanos himself was quite wary of putting too much stock in his pollwhen he had the Liberals at 50% in Ontario. I wouldn't either.

Of note, NDP support is down five points nationally since February. Support in Ontario for the Liberals is up and support for the NDP in Ontario is down. Regardless of the Dion leadership perception problems, the past few weeks have seen the Grits win the Ontario by-elections, former Ontario NDP leader Bob Rae enter the House and the Lukiwski comments.

It's important to remember, this poll was conducted at a time of media focus on the Lukiwski anti-gay comments made 17 years ago. It's quite possible that some soft Ontario New Democrats have strategically parked with the Liberals to block the Tories.

Tory support is up in the West - no negative fallout from Lukiwski there. The increase in support may also be part of a post by-election halo effect in Saskatchewan and British Columbia.

Meanwhile the Environics poll has the Libs at 32% in Ontario. On the low side, yes, but it's not nearly as out of whack as the 50% figure.

Being the PM always helps in best PM - but the issue isn't Harper polling so high, it's why is Dion so low, and why is seems that the more people see of him, the less they like? I personally like best the polls that mention party leaders than those that just say Liberal vs. Conservative vs. NDP, etc., because yes leadership does matter. Right now people are actually paying very little to politics. In an actual campaign, it won't be the Liberal brand, but the Liberal Party led by Stephane Dion.

 

[adma]

Second, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound is one of the most rightwing ridings in Ontario where the NDP is not a factor. A lot of small-"c" conservatives hate John Tory (who they think is too liberal) and voted Green in protest - that is, their opposition to Tory was from the right (and if Bill Murdoch hadn't very publicly distanced himself from Tory during the campaign - maybe there would have been even more rightwing votes bleeding away)

Personally, I think BGOS is a little more complicated than that--why else would places like Flesherton, Meaford etc be spots for Toronto artsies to decamp?--and keep in mind, too, that it was the Liberals and NDP who were the biggest losers relative to Shane Jolley, getting their respective worst Ontario shares here...

 

[Brandon716]

Btw, I've uploaded a series of Liberal advertisements from 2006 if anyone wants to watch. They are a good view of the positive advertisements the party can run. Most of these ads I think are pretty good, although I didn't upload any of those negative ads that were so notorious.

http://www.youtube.com/profile_videos?user=bj615&p=r

 

[King of Kensington]

Personally, I think BGOS is a little more complicated than that--why else would places like Flesherton, Meaford etc be spots for Toronto artsies to decamp?--and keep in mind, too, that it was the Liberals and NDP who were the biggest losers relative to Shane Jolley, getting their respective worst Ontario shares here...

Yeah but the point is even if the NDP vote collapsed into the Green vote, so what? There was never much of an NDP base in that riding to begin with. I have yet to see evidence of Greens taking NDP votes in a blue collar riding with a strong NDP base. I'm sure you'd agree with my main point though - BGOS is not a good comparison with Central Nova.

 

[adma]

Yeah but the point is even if the NDP vote collapsed into the Green vote, so what? There was never much of an NDP base in that riding to begin with.

In raw terms, no. But as I like to look at it, if Murdoch hadn't been the PC candidate, his seat could well have been an NDP pickup instead in 1990--much like Dennis Drainville over in Victoria-Haliburton.

On the whole, it's more of a quasi-frontier-populist than stiff-upper-lip-Tory sort of seat; that is, whatever his politics, Murdoch might as well be a Peter Stoffer type in his hold on the populace. (So might Shane Jolley, for that matter.)

 

[billonlogan]

I'm sure the recent poll results in Quebec had something to do with it.


Election off Dion's spring agenda

Liberals to sell policy proposals over summer

May 01, 2008
Susan Delacourt
Ottawa Bureau
TheStar.com

OTTAWA–Canadians probably need not worry about a spring election, since Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion is reportedly urging MPs to spend the summer talking up policy proposals he intends to roll out in the weeks ahead.

Dion is said to have told his MPs at yesterday's caucus meeting that with the economy deteriorating and Conservatives' fortunes waning in the polls, the summer will present an opportunity for Liberals to put their own vision on the table.

This comes a day after Dion, talking to reporters in Quebec, said that now didn't seem to be the time to bring down Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government.

Dion insisted to reporters yesterday he hasn't declared anything yet on whether Liberals would provoke a spring election. But MPs who are eager to go to the polls interpreted Dion's talk to caucus yesterday as the strongest sign yet that they're not going to precipitate Parliament's collapse until at least the fall.

One of the policies being considered by the Liberals is said to revolve around carbon "tax shifting" – a way to discourage carbon emissions, similar to the system proposed in British Columbia's most recent budget.

Dion hasn't put any specifics out yet on what a Liberal carbon tax shift would look like, but MP Mark Holland (Ajax-Pickering) has said, in an open letter posted on his Facebook site, that it's an idea that's going to take some explaining to voters.

"I know that Stéphane will be championing a bold idea, tax shifting, that will encourage industry and individuals to make green choices," Holland writes. "It is of vital importance to our environment and the future of our planet. In this case, the Conservatives are using the simple sound bite of `Liberal tax increases' to defeat this potentially revolutionary policy. We must not succumb to this dirty tactic."

Conservatives have been laying the groundwork to present Dion as an advocate of tax increases, on carbon and on the GST, which they allege he intends to raise by rolling back the two-percentage-point cut that Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government has made.