Brandon716
Senior Member
I still have most of the main Liberal advertisements saved on my hard drive from the last election. I believe I have shown some of them to you before.
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- Thread starter King of Kensington
- Start date
I still have most of the main Liberal advertisements saved on my hard drive from the last election. I believe I have shown some of them to you before.
unimaginative2
Senior Member
Hehe. I recall! Many of them were pretty good.
Grits, Tories remain deadlocked: poll
OTTAWA — Another national poll suggests the Conservatives and Liberals remain in a virtual deadlock in public support.
The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey suggests the Tories have 32 per cent support, with the Liberals at 30 per cent, which is within the survey’s margin of error.
The NDP have 13 per cent, the Greens 12 per cent and the Bloc is at nine per cent.
Averaged over the last three weeks, the Tories and Liberals were tied at 31 per cent, with the NDP at 15 per cent and the Greens and the Bloc both at 10 per cent.
In Quebec, the latest poll suggested 37 per cent support for the Bloc, 21 per cent each for the Conservatives and Liberals, 10 per cent for the Greens and nine per cent for the NDP.
In Ontario, the survey suggested the Liberals are at 38 per cent with the Tories at 33 per cent. The Green party has 15 per cent, leading the NDP at 10 per cent.
But Harris-Decima president Bruce Anderson says there are some worrying figures for the Tories inside the national numbers.
“The most recent cause for concern is among older voters,†he said. “Among those over 50, the Conservatives have seen a 12-per-cent lead over the Liberals in November-December completely evaporate.â€
He said the Tories also have a problem with soft and second preferences.
Among decided voters, the Conservatives had a 12-point edge in November. That has shrunk to two per cent. Among voters leaning to a party, the Tories and Liberals were competitive for much of the last year, but the Liberals now lead by 12 points.
The survey suggested the Liberals are the second choice for 30 per cent of voters, while the Tories are the second choice for 19 per cent.
This narrows the Conservative chance for growth.
“There’s a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservatives, waning interest in the NDP and a firming of support for the Green party,†he said.
“The Liberal brand is slowly, but perceptibly recovering from the trauma of the sponsorship scandal.
“NDP voters show increased interest in the Liberals and fewer Conservative voters see the Liberal brand as toxic.â€
But the Liberals in recent days have become enmeshed in some internecine squabbling in Quebec, which could pose a problem.
“It remains to be seen whether internal divisions within the Liberals may stunt the opportunities that these patterns represent.â€
The latest poll surveyed 1,000 people in an omnibus poll March 27-30 and is considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Grits, Tories remain deadlocked: poll
OTTAWA — Another national poll suggests the Conservatives and Liberals remain in a virtual deadlock in public support.
The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey suggests the Tories have 32 per cent support, with the Liberals at 30 per cent, which is within the survey’s margin of error.
The NDP have 13 per cent, the Greens 12 per cent and the Bloc is at nine per cent.
Averaged over the last three weeks, the Tories and Liberals were tied at 31 per cent, with the NDP at 15 per cent and the Greens and the Bloc both at 10 per cent.
In Quebec, the latest poll suggested 37 per cent support for the Bloc, 21 per cent each for the Conservatives and Liberals, 10 per cent for the Greens and nine per cent for the NDP.
In Ontario, the survey suggested the Liberals are at 38 per cent with the Tories at 33 per cent. The Green party has 15 per cent, leading the NDP at 10 per cent.
But Harris-Decima president Bruce Anderson says there are some worrying figures for the Tories inside the national numbers.
“The most recent cause for concern is among older voters,†he said. “Among those over 50, the Conservatives have seen a 12-per-cent lead over the Liberals in November-December completely evaporate.â€
He said the Tories also have a problem with soft and second preferences.
Among decided voters, the Conservatives had a 12-point edge in November. That has shrunk to two per cent. Among voters leaning to a party, the Tories and Liberals were competitive for much of the last year, but the Liberals now lead by 12 points.
The survey suggested the Liberals are the second choice for 30 per cent of voters, while the Tories are the second choice for 19 per cent.
This narrows the Conservative chance for growth.
“There’s a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservatives, waning interest in the NDP and a firming of support for the Green party,†he said.
“The Liberal brand is slowly, but perceptibly recovering from the trauma of the sponsorship scandal.
“NDP voters show increased interest in the Liberals and fewer Conservative voters see the Liberal brand as toxic.â€
But the Liberals in recent days have become enmeshed in some internecine squabbling in Quebec, which could pose a problem.
“It remains to be seen whether internal divisions within the Liberals may stunt the opportunities that these patterns represent.â€
The latest poll surveyed 1,000 people in an omnibus poll March 27-30 and is considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Brandon716
Senior Member
Something tells me the only reason Liberals are losing in Quebec is because of a surge in Green support, not because of a surge in Conservative support.
I hate to speculate on Quebec as I understand the dynamic there less than anywhere else in Canada, but Liberals are going to have to become more competitive in Quebec or at least keep the Conservative support suppressed enough so that a wave of 20% wins doesn't occur.
Voting for the Green party is almost a proxy vote for the Conservatives, especially considering the NDP has a more green platform.
I hate to speculate on Quebec as I understand the dynamic there less than anywhere else in Canada, but Liberals are going to have to become more competitive in Quebec or at least keep the Conservative support suppressed enough so that a wave of 20% wins doesn't occur.
Voting for the Green party is almost a proxy vote for the Conservatives, especially considering the NDP has a more green platform.
unimaginative2
Senior Member
The Liberal vote in Quebec actually isn't dropping. There have been pretty much no polls that have suggested a significant drop, or rise, in Liberal support in Quebec. The only story there has been the Bloc hemmorrhage, which is going everywhere but the Liberals. I personally believe this is very positive for the Liberals, since they and the Tories are going after different seats. Both are competing with the Bloc, and if the Bloc is dropping and the Liberals are staying the same (or even dropping at a slower rate), it could mean several seats falling back into the Liberal column even with a static percentage of the overall vote.
Look at Ahuntsic for example. Last election the Bloc got around 39%, the Liberals 37% and the Tories 12%. Let's say the Tories go up to 20%. If they steal six points from the Bloc, the Liberals win even if the Tories take the other two points from the Liberals.
Look at Ahuntsic for example. Last election the Bloc got around 39%, the Liberals 37% and the Tories 12%. Let's say the Tories go up to 20%. If they steal six points from the Bloc, the Liberals win even if the Tories take the other two points from the Liberals.
Brandon716
Senior Member
That makes sense. I need to study the history of Quebec politics to understand the situation better there.
I'm still baffled as to why Dion isn't more popular in his home region of Quebec City. I actually thought when he became leader that the Liberals would be polling above and beyond where it currently stands in Quebec.
unimaginative2
Senior Member
Well, it remains to be seen what happens in an actual election. Quebeckers do have a tendency to vote for a "native son," though that's far from guaranteed. The problem is that Dion is seen as a sellout to francophones because of his hyper-aggressive defence of federalism.
This could, however, play well among ultra-federalists in Montreal, who may have been disillusioned by Martin's soft-federalist approach, featuring unpopular ex-separatist Jean Lapierre. Some who stayed home last time might return to a Dion-led Liberal Party. That, once again, might help swing a couple Montreal seats, like Ahuntsic, Papineau, and perhaps Jeanne-Le Ber.
The places where I think the Liberals might have some serious problems are Hull and maybe Laval. Those two seats are somewhat more Tory-friendly, though the plunging Bloc numbers could keep them out of the fire. That'll likely keep the Liberals from taking back Brossard, too. I think the relatively strong performance there last time was as much a Saada vote as anything, and he's retired now. I think Gatineau's totally impossible to predict. It all depends on how much of a spoiler Francoise Boivin, the defeated Liberal one-termer who's now running for the NDP, turns out to be. If she does attract a lot of votes, it will depend on whether she attracts them from the Bloc or the Liberals. The Tories are also a wild card there, since they've done very well in the Ottawa area on the Ontario side. I'd expect they'll be focusing more of their efforts on Hull, though.
This could, however, play well among ultra-federalists in Montreal, who may have been disillusioned by Martin's soft-federalist approach, featuring unpopular ex-separatist Jean Lapierre. Some who stayed home last time might return to a Dion-led Liberal Party. That, once again, might help swing a couple Montreal seats, like Ahuntsic, Papineau, and perhaps Jeanne-Le Ber.
The places where I think the Liberals might have some serious problems are Hull and maybe Laval. Those two seats are somewhat more Tory-friendly, though the plunging Bloc numbers could keep them out of the fire. That'll likely keep the Liberals from taking back Brossard, too. I think the relatively strong performance there last time was as much a Saada vote as anything, and he's retired now. I think Gatineau's totally impossible to predict. It all depends on how much of a spoiler Francoise Boivin, the defeated Liberal one-termer who's now running for the NDP, turns out to be. If she does attract a lot of votes, it will depend on whether she attracts them from the Bloc or the Liberals. The Tories are also a wild card there, since they've done very well in the Ottawa area on the Ontario side. I'd expect they'll be focusing more of their efforts on Hull, though.
afransen
Senior Member
Sounds like the Liberals should pull the plug. They may be neck and neck now, but in the course of an election, soft NDP and Green support will swing around to elect Liberals. They may only win a minority, but it'd give Dion the legitimacy he needs to get the knives away from his back.
King of Kensington
Senior Member
I wouldn't say that's a foregone conclusion.
King of Kensington
Senior Member
The Liberals just voted for Harper's immigration bill, though at least Andrew Telegdi has defied his leader on this.
http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/story.html?id=0ad40823-dfbb-415d-9db3-acb97d278892
http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/story.html?id=0ad40823-dfbb-415d-9db3-acb97d278892
Blixtein
Active Member
At least this guy has some balls unlike Dion and the rest of the Liberals.
afransen
Senior Member
It requires they run a decent campaign. I think if the electorate senses that we may return to a Conservative government, some of the NDP and Green vote will melt back to the Liberals. It'll only take a few points to push the Liberals into minority territory.
Brandon716
Senior Member
Edit: decided to remove the letter.
Brandon716
Senior Member
Here are two maps that show the trends from the last two elections in 2004 and 2006.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Can2004.PNG
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Canada2006.PNG
If you look at those images, its pretty clear that the Liberals lost their minority government in Ontario and Quebec, and several seats in Quebec were Bloc going Tory, not a Liberal loss per se.
Given the conditions in Ontario and how the Tory goverment has made an ass of itself, right now is actually a great time for an election.
BC is in no mood to give Tories any extra votes. The Tories lost in BC to the NDP, where the NDP gained big. BC also gave the Liberals an extra seat in the 2006 election and their vote share went up overall.
Same for Sasketchewan, they added one Liberal seat in 2006. Yes, I'm aware of the recent interim election, but that is only because Dion chose a candidate instead of letting the best candidate run.
The nation is not ready to hand over a majority goverment, and to be honest would likely transfer it back to a Liberal minority in my opinion. If Dion ran a good campaign I wouldn't be surprised if he could spur a surprise majority.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Can2004.PNG
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Canada2006.PNG
If you look at those images, its pretty clear that the Liberals lost their minority government in Ontario and Quebec, and several seats in Quebec were Bloc going Tory, not a Liberal loss per se.
Given the conditions in Ontario and how the Tory goverment has made an ass of itself, right now is actually a great time for an election.
BC is in no mood to give Tories any extra votes. The Tories lost in BC to the NDP, where the NDP gained big. BC also gave the Liberals an extra seat in the 2006 election and their vote share went up overall.
Same for Sasketchewan, they added one Liberal seat in 2006. Yes, I'm aware of the recent interim election, but that is only because Dion chose a candidate instead of letting the best candidate run.
The nation is not ready to hand over a majority goverment, and to be honest would likely transfer it back to a Liberal minority in my opinion. If Dion ran a good campaign I wouldn't be surprised if he could spur a surprise majority.
Dan416
Senior Member
At this point, a Liberal minority would be a godsend.
billonlogan
Active Member
Liberals look at June 16 election
Apr 18, 2008 04:30 AM
Chantal Hébert
OTTAWA–As they head back home for a one-week break today, many MPs are wondering whether they will preside over the death of the 39th Parliament upon their return to Parliament Hill.
Between now and then, Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion will have to decide whether to make use of his last spring election window. If he does, the Liberals would defeat the government on its contentious immigration overhaul at the first opportunity, with Canadians likely voting on Monday, June 16. (continue reading)
I doubt Dion will go for this with his popularity sinking everywhere but Toronto. It's a no win proposition, he defeats the govt and gets creamed in the election or lets the immigration bill pass unchanged and loses even more credibility with his caucus.
Apr 18, 2008 04:30 AM
Chantal Hébert
OTTAWA–As they head back home for a one-week break today, many MPs are wondering whether they will preside over the death of the 39th Parliament upon their return to Parliament Hill.
Between now and then, Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion will have to decide whether to make use of his last spring election window. If he does, the Liberals would defeat the government on its contentious immigration overhaul at the first opportunity, with Canadians likely voting on Monday, June 16. (continue reading)
I doubt Dion will go for this with his popularity sinking everywhere but Toronto. It's a no win proposition, he defeats the govt and gets creamed in the election or lets the immigration bill pass unchanged and loses even more credibility with his caucus.