[David A]

When companies like Apple are growing their revenue by increasing the costs of their products beyond the reach of the target demographic it’s probably prudent to ask if the market can continue performing at the rate it has for the last 12 years. Especially when the S&P is dominated by a handful of companies that you can look at with the same skeptical lens.

I have a feeling that physical assets and capital are going to be important things to own in the next decade or two.

Obviously, it is very hard to predict the future and timing, but when things get out of whack, there tends to be some sort of reversion to the mean. This means assets that have under performed in the last decade or so may do better and those that have over performed may not do so well for a period of time.

 

[thommyjo]

Calgary has seen dozens of new high density projects and towers started in the last year. I really hope we can get a handful going asap. especially 103-108st. So much to fill in, we need 2+ projects a year at least.

 

[Munanyo]

Edmonton's real estate affordability expected to fuel growth in 2025

Overall, Edmonton's market is expected to favour sellers, a condition that is likely to be seen in many other markets across Canada.

edmontonjournal.com

It looks like 2025 is going to be a gangbusters year for Edmonton's real estate market. I'm really glad I bought earlier this year when I did as it was already a gong show when trying to find my first place to buy.

A ton of investors - both local and out of province - have been circling Edmonton for their next investment and it may look like it's already full steam ahead.

 

[Kosy123]

Yeah, there's a chance this could cool our rental market for 2025, especially if more people opt to buy homes and not get locked out of the housing market rather than rent.

 

[Greenspace]

Housing affordability is trending up.

https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/housing-affordability.pdf

 

[Stevey_G]

Housing affordability is trending up.

https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/housing-affordability.pdf

View attachment 618999

Doesn’t that indicate a prospective supply side issue?

 

[Greenspace]

Population growth is about to collapse. This could easily mean oversupply in many markets soon.

 

[David A]

.

Population growth is about to collapse. This could easily mean oversupply in many markets soon.

Yes, it is about to change considerably, especially for those larger markets in Canada that relied on a steady and increasing flow of immigrants to support housing demand .

Although, I doubt all those TFWs here now will leave when their permits expire and I doubt our governments are competent enough to enforce that.

 

[Stevey_G]

Population growth is about to collapse. This could easily mean oversupply in many markets soon.

Ahh icic, I read at first on my phone I didn't even see the forecasted portion lol.

I'm a bit unfamiliar with what sounds like changes to immigration policies. Have the Feds put a moratorium on new immigration and allowance of TFWs?

As David said, I doubt students and works are going to go without a fight, and I'd also like to know if that graph is forecasted on a small recent sample size, or if it's based off stronger metrics.

Edit: Just had a good look at the aggregate data in the link provided. Housing affordability seems by the stats to be driven by short term influences such as a reduction in interest rates and a rise in median incomes nation-wide. I think each city will be a case study in itself but being the more affordable cities to live in, any change to immigration policies will definitely have an impact on housing affordability in Edmonton and Winnipeg specifically but shouldn't be viewed in a vacuum alone. There are some major economic developments happening in things like AI and the Oil and Gas Sector that will impact Edmonton and Northern Alberta in general as well.

I suspect a modest increase year over year in both mortgaging costs but also in income growths. The two will be more locked together than what you see in places like Vancouver do to limited speculative investment in our Beautiful but boiler-room-esque city.

 

[David A]

No one is moving to the GTA or GVA because it is affordable, so they rely a lot on immigration to keep their housing prices (overly) inflated. I expect they will be hurt most by the planned reductions.

 

[Stevey_G]

No one is moving to the GTA or GVA because it is affordable, so they rely a lot on immigration to keep their housing prices (overly) inflated. I expect they will be hurt most by the planned reductions.

Yeah, it's going to be interesting to see what changes to immigration policies have on the different markets. I hope we see a modest and slow decline in costs coupled with a bunch of rubber stamping of mining, energy, and infrastructure projects to bring full time jobs in across the country and improve wages.

 

[channing76]

Yeah, it's going to be interesting to see what changes to immigration policies have on the different markets. I hope we see a modest and slow decline in costs coupled with a bunch of rubber stamping of mining, energy, and infrastructure projects to bring full time jobs in across the country and improve wages.

We will when Pierre gets in power. Canada is a resource extraction nation, that's our bread and butter.

 

[Stevey_G]

We will when Pierre gets in power. Canada is a resource extraction nation, that's our bread and butter.

He's got alot ahead of him if he and the party are what everyone hopes they can be. Canada's a Walled Garden of shady businesses and I'm really hoping Government starts making changes to how it regulates and administrates the nation.

Like we have a massive copper mine that's been stuck in permitting for decades out in the Interior that would create 600 full time jobs for the towns of Avola, Vavenby, and Clearwater. They'd be high paying jobs and would be the first glimmer of hope for these communities economically speaking since all the lumber mills shut down. It happens to also be on already disturbed land with logging roads built and the support for the most part of the local Indigenous groups.

Yet there it is, being held up by inept governing.

Sorry for derailing the convo, but I do hope you're right. I'm cautiously optimistic for the future of Canada.

 

[David A]

We will when Pierre gets in power. Canada is a resource extraction nation, that's our bread and butter.

I don't think building mines in Northern Ontario or Northern BC will do a lot for demand for condos in Toronto or here.

And there are a whole bunch of restrictions and regulations that will not be easily removed, so good luck with that.

I suspect there will be a lot of disappointment, but people may stop blaming the current government for every problem in the world and maybe start blaming the next one.

 

[Stevey_G]

I don't think building mines in Northern Ontario or Northern BC will do a lot for demand for condos in Toronto or here.

And there are a whole bunch of restrictions and regulations that will not be easily removed, so good luck with that.

I suspect there will be a lot of disappointment, but people may stop blaming the current government for every problem in the world and maybe start blaming the next one.

Permitting resource extraction lowers costs of goods in and makes it easier to produce manufactured/engineered products as well. The lower costs of materials makes building new developments economic whilst providing more people with access to high income earning jobs.

This country has serious issues regarding our regulatory environment and permitting processes though. We have an unusually large amount of red tape that often makes prospective industrial development NOT economic and THAT issue in governance needs to be addressed first and foremost if any government is going to take over and fulfill the promises of economic development and cooperation. Can they? Sure. Will they? Time will tell. I do think they deserve their shot.