[David A]

I feel the rush of people moving here probably diminishes in fall and students are going back to school, so hopefully the unemployment rate will start to come back down here over the next several months regardless of whatever happens nationally.

This is a recent Calgary news article, but I think it applies to Edmonton, as much if not even more.

Varcoe: More jobs but more people jobless — What's behind Alberta's employment conundrum?

This apparent contradiction can be partly explained by another phenomenon: Alberta’s persistent population boom, experts tell Chris Varcoe.

calgaryherald.com

 

[TAS]

So Edmonton hit 1 million people in about 2021. One forecast I saw has us at 1.5 million in 2035 and if 2% growth continues, we would surpass 2 million in 2049.

Sure we will have more new neighbourhoods and exisilting ones fill in a bit more, but can we seriously hit 2 million without the population at least doubling in dt and Wikwentowin? And if it does get close to doubling, that is going to mean A LOT of new building needs to happen in just 25 years - and when you look at what already exists, how is that going to fit?

Kind of hard for me to comprehend, haha

 

[BASE]

So Edmonton hit 1 million people in about 2021. One forecast I saw has us at 1.5 million in 2035 and if 2% growth continues, we would surpass 2 million in 2049.

Sure we will have more new neighbourhoods and exisilting ones fill in a bit more, but can we seriously hit 2 million without the population at least doubling in dt and Wikwentowin? And if it does get close to doubling, that is going to mean A LOT of new building needs to happen in just 25 years - and when you look at what already exists, how is that going to fit?

Kind of hard for me to comprehend, haha

History along with preferences, and geographical realities make me believe this won't be the case at all. If we were land constrained I think that might be possible but with so much land under development and areas growing exponentially (starting from almost no one to thousands) it likely wont happen until those areas fill out significantly and perceptions/preferences/needs change for living centrally. As it stands I can easily see on greenfield development another 100k each in the areas of Southwest, Southeast, West, Northwest, & Northeast. That is 500K alone right there without touching anywhere inside the ring road or potential new development south of 41 Ave SW.

 

[David A]

So Edmonton hit 1 million people in about 2021. One forecast I saw has us at 1.5 million in 2035 and if 2% growth continues, we would surpass 2 million in 2049.

Sure we will have more new neighbourhoods and exisilting ones fill in a bit more, but can we seriously hit 2 million without the population at least doubling in dt and Wikwentowin? And if it does get close to doubling, that is going to mean A LOT of new building needs to happen in just 25 years - and when you look at what already exists, how is that going to fit?

Kind of hard for me to comprehend, haha

Yes, at some point all the land annexed will start to fill in and while we do not have physical constraints, Edmonton is surrounded by industrial areas, suburban cities and towns who are also growing.

They can expand outwards, but it may not be as attractive to be on the edge of larger urban area due to distances involved to travel to other parts of the region. So, yes there will be more infill and density.

 

[SarcasticMarmot]

They can expand outwards, but it may not be as attractive to be on the edge of larger urban area due to distances involved to travel to other parts of the region. So, yes there will be more infill and density.

I agree that there will be infill/density . However, the throngs of people commuting everyday from Chilliwack into Vancouver show just how far people are willing to go for bigger/cheaper housing.

 

[David A]

I agree that there will be infill/density . However, the throngs of people commuting everyday from Chilliwack into Vancouver show just how far people are willing to go for bigger/cheaper housing.

Yes, when prices are at the level they are in Vancouver that becomes the only option for some who want a SFH. But we are a very very long way from those price levels.

 

[thommyjo]

So Edmonton hit 1 million people in about 2021. One forecast I saw has us at 1.5 million in 2035 and if 2% growth continues, we would surpass 2 million in 2049.

Sure we will have more new neighbourhoods and exisilting ones fill in a bit more, but can we seriously hit 2 million without the population at least doubling in dt and Wikwentowin? And if it does get close to doubling, that is going to mean A LOT of new building needs to happen in just 25 years - and when you look at what already exists, how is that going to fit?

Kind of hard for me to comprehend, haha

Vancouver went from 17k in 1996 to 62k in 2016 in their downtown. 45k increase.

I’d say we have plenty of space for adding 50k+ to our downtown area. How long that’ll take…who knows…

 

[TAS]

Pretty staggering numbers. Alberta is expected to hit 7.3million people by 2051 and maybe as much as 8.8million

Alberta’s population grew by a Canada-leading 4.4 per cent between July 1, 2023, and July 1, 2024, a total increase of about 204,000 people — well above the national average (three per cent).

Alberta's population continues to soar as provincial government's mood on growth shifts

The new growth projections released Tuesday also predict the province’s population will reach about 7.3 million by mid-century.

calgaryherald.com

 

[The_Cat]

There are growth pressures in Edmonton and Calgary. Case in point, the crowding in schools.

 

[Airboy]

There are growth pressures in Edmonton and Calgary. Case in point, the crowding in schools.

A lot of the issues with schools has been the lack of new Construction and or expansion of existing schools. and I don't see any sign that this will change any time soon. We should be getting a new hospital now but .......

 

[bodsbods9090]

A lot of the issues with schools has been the lack of new Construction and or expansion of existing schools. and I don't see any sign that this will change any time soon. We should be getting a new hospital now but .......

So are you saying this announcement of new schools was all for show and we won't see new schools actually built?

 

[policyenthusiast]

From Better Dwelling:

Canadian Temporary Resident Growth Falls 48%, Long “Overdue”: BMO​

Canada’s policymakers went from explaining that millions of temporary residents are needed, to cheering on the reversal of their policies over a few short months. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows the flow of non-permanent (temporary) residents slowed in Q2 2024. After doubling in a couple of years, the temporary population remains robust but marks a stark shift in policy. Consequently, one of the country’s largest banks is telling investors to pay close attention, as it can mean big changes for the economy.

 

[Greenspace]

Totally depends on the industry. Skilled labour still in short supply particularly construction. You can’t find any skilled folks right now.

 

[IanO]

^yup. Sadly, there continues to be a lack of appreciation for skilled trades and that has led to many either not considering it as a career or leaving the industry.

 

[policyenthusiast]

Totally depends on the industry. Skilled labour still in short supply particularly construction. You can’t find any skilled folks right now.

There's a major shortage of trades workers across industries IMO. Doesn't help that the GoC promotes immigration to skilled labourers abroad, then when they arrive here they're not allowed to work in their field of expertise because of a lack of foreign credential recognition (FQR). Here's hoping IQAS sees the writing on the wall.