[DSC]

First off, let's not pretend this is just Indians when only a fifth of those caught are Indian. And the proportion is nearly the same as actual Canadians crossing illegaly.

Next, like I said above, it's the same group likely causing all the problems. Those at the lower end of the quality spectrum. It's not even those who come here for a 2-3 year college program. It's people coming here as TFWs or for 1 yr program where getting a visa was the primary consideration. For this group, there will be some who just have nothing to lose. A university graduate or a specialist tech won't find it worthwhile to work illegally. But somebody who worked here at Tim's and is often working partially under the table here doesn't have much to lose. And so they are willing to risk getting caught to get some American dollars before they inevitably end up back in their country of Origin.

The above is exactly why I have argued that the 1 yr student visas and most TFWs are BS. It's also why the government is substantially cutting back on Work Permits for 1 yr student visas. I'd prefer to see this entire sector shut down.



There'll be some leakage. But the fearmongering gets a bit much at times. But the US Government's own numbers they get a tenth of the migrants and 2% of the drugs from Canada. It's like saying a paper cut might eventually develop into a gunshot wound. It's extremely difficult for these numbers to scale and has been true for all the years they have had a crisis on the southern border. Mostly because we have strict visa policies for the countries that normally generate illegal immigrants to the US from Latin America. And given that even our riskiest immigration programs are a small fraction of the number of illegal immigrants to the US (and only a fraction of those risky Canadian immigrants become American illegals), it's mathematically impossible for Canada to ever be more than a fraction of the problem of the South. We could do better. But the idea that we'll even be a quarter of the problem of their Southern border is pure ignorance (or intentional misinformation in many cases). Don't fall for it.



We'll see where it goes. It's a question of sovereignty. Are we now going to simply let DC dictate our visa and trade policies? If so, it's a quick path to asking why we are a separate country at all. Some harmonization is okay and needed. I'm not sold on the idea that we cave to every crazy whim of the madman to the South. Especially, when (as we see in the actual stats), it's not fact-based.

Not to disagree with your post in general but there is not a great deal of point for a Canadian citizen to try to cross the US border illegally as we/they do not need a passport or visa to cross into US and most Canadians who want to move to US but do not have a US immigration visa will simply go as a visitor but stay there. If you require a visa to visit that is when you 'must' enter illegally.

 

[jje1000]

Unhinged. The way it is phrased, there is nothing Canada could do to satisfy Trump's demand (completely stop the flow of migrants and drugs. To zero?). I suppose Canada can only respond with matching tariffs subject to our own list of grievances to be corrected. Maybe use the proceeds to dump dark money into a bunch of anti-MAGA PACs and information campaigns on US airwaves explaining why tariffs on Canadian goods are leading to inflation in various areas and business closures and layoffs.

This is not going to have any significant impact, and it's more likely that Trudeau will completely acquiesce before that came to pass (and it already looks like he's going to do so).

At worse the US would maybe lose a couple of companies, while Canada would lose entire economic sectors. Enough talk about Canada's economy stagnating, you'd see the MOAR (mother of all recessions) combined with a subsequent implosion of the property bubble if that came to pass.

Again, I maintain that these sorts of tariffs threats are used as part of negotiating tactics, given that the same thing played out last time.

Prior to taking office in 2016, Trump had blasted the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and negotiations began in August 2017 when he was in the White House to carve out a new deal with Canada and Mexico, which remained underway by spring 2018 when Trump announced the tariffs on May 31, 2018.

Canada announced its own retaliatory tariffs on roughly $16.6 billion worth of steel, aluminum and hundreds of other products from the U.S., which also included things like maple syrup, shaving products, ketchup and even coffee.

By October 2018, a new NAFTA had been negotiated, the Canada-U.S.-Mexico-Agreement (CUSMA) — which the U.S. refers to as the USMCA — but it still took until May 2019 for an agreement to be reached to lift the tariffs on both sides.

That agreement officially took effect in July 2020 and was ratified after tariffs were lifted.

Most importantly, there is no room for consumer prices to increase without the Liberals going to a 0-seat part in 2025, long before the 2026 US midterms.

According to Tu Nguyen, an economist at RSM Canada LLP, when the Canadian dollar decreases in value the goods Canada imports become more expensive.

BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic noted in a statement that if the tariff threat were to impact energy exports — which accounted for Canada’s biggest share of goods to the U.S. as of September — the immediate result could be higher oil and consumer gas prices.

If Canada also implements retaliatory tariffs, Canadians could also pay more at stores because depending what is taxed, companies may have to pay more to produce their goods and in turn pass the buck onto consumers.

What happened last time Trump imposed tariffs and how do they work? - National | Globalnews.ca

U.S. president-elect Donald Trump has proposed implementing a tariff of 25 per cent on all goods imported from Canada on his first day in office.

globalnews.ca

 

[kEiThZ]

Not to disagree with your post in general but there is not a great deal of point for a Canadian citizen to try to cross the US border illegally as we/they do not need a passport or visa to cross into US and most Canadians who want to move to US but do not have a US immigration visa will simply go as a visitor but stay there. If you require a visa to visit that is when you 'must' enter illegally.

And yet in the stats I saw nearly a fifth of those caught by CBP were Canadian citizens. Maybe they believe it's harder to be tracked if they do? Who knows.

 

[afransen]

This is not going to have any significant impact, and it's more likely that Trudeau will completely acquiesce before that came to pass (and it already looks like he's going to do so).

How can we possibly acquiesce other than symbolic measures? Is it just a dominance display?

We can try that in advance of tariffs actually being implemented. If Trump goes ahead with them anyway, we need to implement our own to impose maximum political damage on vulnerable Republican congress members and senators.

 

[afransen]

Most importantly, there is no room for consumer prices to increase without the Liberals going to a 0-seat part in 2025, long before the 2026 US midterms.

The inflation in the US will also be staggering. Interest rates would have to rise, suppressing the Canadian dollar leading to inflation in Canada. We are going to see inflation regardless of whether we retaliate. Our retaliation should be in the form of easily substituted goods that are sourced from Republican supporting areas. US beef, for instance. I wonder how produce imports from Mexico would work--would tariffs still be imposed on goods transiting the US on their way to Canada?

 

[jje1000]

How can we possibly acquiesce other than symbolic measures? Is it just a dominance display?

We can try that in advance of tariffs actually being implemented. If Trump goes ahead with them anyway, we need to implement our own to impose maximum political damage on vulnerable Republican congress members and senators.

I think the difference between the 2024 tariff spat and the 2020 tariff spat is that the 2024 tariffs are working against Trudeau's extreme weaknesses on immigration and the border, while the 2020 tariffs felt like they were a matter of defending Canada from a raw deal in the USMCA.

The former will likely not elicit much unity from Canadians, who may even agree that the 'easiest' path should be taken given the Liberal's failings on immigration and the border, while immigration is red meat for Republicans in the states.

 

[afransen]

I think the difference between the 2024 tariff spat and the 2020 tariff spat is that the 2024 tariffs are working against Trudeau's extreme weaknesses on immigration and the border, while the 2020 tariffs felt like they were a matter of defending Canada from a raw deal in the USMCA.

The former will likely not elicit much unity from Canadians, who may even agree that the 'easiest' path should be taken given the Liberal's failings on immigration and the border, while immigration is red meat for Republicans in the states.

I'm not sure what you're on about. Trump's complaints about border crossings and drug smuggling are largely spurious. If we take beatings without standing up to it, that just invites further beatings. Trump is a bully and you don't coexist with a bully by curling up into a ball and apologizing if he hurts his foot while kicking you.