My take on the announcement yesterday from the federal government.
^Lots of good ideas and insights. Just don't let your enthusiasm get in the way of understanding how little forward ground was actually gained by yesterday's announcement.
A major constraint on the capacity of the Galt Sub, even without any track addition, is the number and location of level crossings through Mississauga and Halton. While it would appear that CP has more than enough capacity to absorb more GO trains, any operating pattern that involves meeting or passing freight trains is highly constrained. There are just enough busy level crossings that it's very difficult to find a place for a freight train to slow or hold without blocking road traffic. That's likely why CP may be so reluctant to allow any bidirectional service....they need an assured through route to keep freights moving. Grade separations are as important as the track itself on this line, maybe more,
CP has accepted close headways for those 10-11 unidirectional trains (including the impact on the crossing of these trains from north to south en route) so they have definitely cooperated with GO to get as much value as possible out of the existing line. But they aren't a charity and can only take so much of a hit for commuters.
A second constraint is the location of major river crossings - which in combination with the grade separation drives up the cost of adding track significantly.
I disagree that getting to hourly 2WAD would be a big enough step forward to be worthwhile. That's because the competing routes (the ones people use today, due to there being no 2WAD on the Milton line) are likely to retain riders who experience/anticipate/fear a 45 minute wait for the next hourly train. Getting service to 30 minutes or better has to be a goal from the beginning. Spending $x00M to get hourly service may be poor use of capital whereas spending more to get more frequent headways is a very compelling proposition.
It's all doable with money - we just need to realise that both Ontario and Ottawa have other major expenses under way and not everything can happen at once. As important as the Milton line is, given its high cost, had it been included in GO Expansion's first wave, some other things would have been left out. Having spent $1.5B on Georgetown South it's understandable that other parts of the GTA are getting the focus in the current expansion program.
I don't get very excited about Ministerial announcements of what we might do in another decade. My kids may get to ride 2WAD to Milton, but at best I may be bringing my walker.
- Paul
