That being said, I believe ReaperExpress has already pointed out that we are already a stones throw away from the ability to double capacity from 2 TPH to 4 TPH because of the basically complete double track section from south of West Highland Bridge to Kennedy. That can serve as a passing track like the section north of Milliken to Unionville. The problem is, as smallspy and others point out is we don't have the equipment or crews for that. What a coincidence that when weekend service ends on the Stouffville line it begins on the Kitchener.
It is puzzling that ML would not try to put in service the parts of the project that have been completed. My conspiracy theory on that is - they may not be ready to sign off on completion - which would trigger payments to the contractor - and may prefer to use non-payment as leverage to keep the contractor fixated on finishing the remaining work. Just a theory. Or perhaps the project is held up by new developments anyways…. see below.
Crew availability rather than equipment is definitely an issue. So long as there is equipment laying over off peak, there is no added need for equipment, but additional crews would be needed, and those are known to be in short supply.
The track/signalling capacity on LSE also seems to me to be questionable now that it's down to 2 tracks. Has anyone analyzed that? It's not uncommon for a NB Stouffville train on LSE to have to park itself for a few min to wait for a WB LSE train to pass in order to left turn at Scarborough Junction.
The whole design strategy for East Harbour construction only emerged long after the LSE and Stouffville expansion procurement was launched. I can’t fault Ml for that change, (although they did a U-turn on Scarborough Junction, which probably wasted time and effort) but yes, so long as there are only two tracks through East Harbour, the whole Stouffville expansion is moot. Perhaps that factors into why Ml appears to have fallen behind with work on the Stouffville line.
This speaks to just how interconnected the whole network expansion is, and how one choke point can hold up the whole network expansion. All the more reason why there should be public transparency around the overall schedule and any hold points that emerge. ML’s communications have never indicated a change to schedule - heck, they never put out a schedule in the first place.
I remember back in 2018 right before the ON Libs were booted out that the refrain was that GO Expansion would deliver gradual increases, not just an explosion of service a decade later like the day a new subway arrives. That held reasonably true up until the pandemic. With that in the rear view mirror and ONCorr signed, it almost feels like the plan has shifted to drop the gradual increases and focus on delivering the final product instead, whatever that might be.
The Liberals went way out on a limb promising that GO Expansion (RER) was going to happen quickly, and their Communications people overdid themselves making it sound like it was going to happen much sooner than it really is. Ford’s communications people have doubled down on this - Even today, the PR blurbs focus on 15-minute service - when objectively, it will still be many years before that can be delivered. The original documents did allude to a 2024-2025 completion, but public expectations have never been managed. I have no hesitation to hold the pols to their unrealistic promises - as a matter of truth in politics (maybe I’m the unrealistic one….it’s so hard to say ‘truthful’ and ‘politics’ in the same sentence)
The original RER strategy was originally proposed and accepted back in 2014-2015. But then the Liberals discovered that they had neither the funding nor the internal project capacity to execute the project. It took Ml a long time (and more than one try) to figure out a project management and execution strategy. I’m not thrilled with how that ended up - far too much accountability firewalled into confidential contracts that will be nearly impossible to enforce with proper public accountability - but at least that dead zone is mostly over.
At the end of the day - given all these interdependencies, I guess it will all happen when it happens. Lots is happening, it will fall into place with time. As for Stouffville, the double track contracts were let in 2017 with a supposed completion date of 2019….. and here we sit.
- Paul