[TOareaFan]

It may be a return on investment calculation. If GO can get more riders using those crews for 30 min Lakeshore trains vs adding trains to Brampton or Meadowvale, then isn't that the best use of limited resources?

I haven't seen the numbers to indicate that 30 Min Lakeshore is indeed a better ROI, but I haven't seen anything to show that a Brampton or Meadowvale service would see ridership levels per train around what Lakeshore sees. If anyone has a more detailed analysis, I'd like to see it.

I have not seen numbers either but......it would seem to me that the other lines are very underserved....my suspicion is that the economics (given the right amount of time) would favour any line other than the Lakeshore lines.

The Lakeshore lines already receive off peak service and far more peak service than any other line. It is well known the effectiveness of the current quality/amount of service. Everyone already knows that every day of the week, for the largest part of the day, you can take a train from "X" to Union and, later, also return on the train. What 30 minute service does, is get at that segment of the market that does not like the fact that at off peak times there may be times you just miss the train and have to wait 59 minutes for the next one and, so, avoid the train for that fairly unlikely event (not sure how you would measure it but I bet the law of big numbers drives the average wait time to much much less than 59 minutes).

At the margins, I think the other lines (if you could ever see the numbers...if they are even produced) would show there are more net new riders to be picked up on the lines that have no off peak service than there are net new riders who avoid the Lakeshore and won't now because the trains are more frequent.

What will boost Lakeshore ridership is the new parking garages. This is also a problem on all lines...adding off peak service is not as easy to generate higher ridership if the current peak service already fills the parking lots. Again, an advantage has been granted to the Lakeshore line as nearly all of the parking structures have been on that line....so we will ineveitably get back into the "we should get more service because we have more riders" circle again.

It would not shock me at all if a) Lakeshore gets to 15 minute frequencies before KW (line not city) gets to hourly/7 day service and b) KW does not get to hourly/7 day service during my working time (I am 51).

 

[nfitz]

Bingo, this is money and nothing else.

And which other GO line has the infrastructure ready for such a service increase in 2013?

If the crews are now available (which will be interesting to see ... I guess worse-case scenario is they cancel some runs for a few months) you might as well use them to fulfill a long-standing, and very public, promise (and though some staff may well have been making comments about the Brampton line 25 years ago, there wasn't the very public promises made there).

 

[TOareaFan]

The same crewa doing more hours/ running more trains. Remember this was supposed to be next year. They are stretching the resources they do have.

Drum gave the formula for crews....if he is right (usually the case) and my math is good (not as certain on that) the number of crews is 23!

I think more they what you, nfitz and shrontron suggest is coming down. I think they will provide more they what they are saying and I don't believe the mayor of brampton.

You don't have to believe the Mayor of Brampton....try believing me (unless you think I am the Mayor of Brampton) I asked and got an answer very similar to what she said (I say very similar because the only thing that GO/Metrolinx disputed with me about what the Mayor said is whether it was ever promised at all....they did not dispute that it is not coming in anything close to the near future)...or ask GO/Metrolinx the same question (i presume you will get the same answer)....there are no plans to go all day 7 days a week (heck, there are no plans to go all day 5 days a week).

 

[TOareaFan]

And which other GO line has the infrastructure ready for such a service increase in 2013?

If the crews are now available (which will be interesting to see ... I guess worse-case scenario is they cancel some runs for a few months) you might as well use them to fulfill a long-standing, and very public, promise (and though some staff may well have been making comments about the Brampton line 25 years ago, there wasn't the very public promises made there).

If "some staff" includes Gary McNeil, he made the promise publicly in a forum at Brampton City Hall set up by then Mayor Robertson in an answer to my question and wrote me several letters in response to letters I sent him.

Speaking of promises, here is a little anectdote. In a suggestion of compromise, I once suggest to GO that if money was tight and there are multiple demands on the money they had...do not spend any money on the Georgetown corridor. Instead buy and upgrade the Milton line...plus the line (I forget what its called) that connects Streetsville to Brampton and goes on to Orangeville. Keep the existing level of peak train service that the line allowed on the Georgetown line. Then run trains between Union and Streetsville every half hour with alternate end destinations (ie. one train continues on to Milton the next train goes from Streetsville to Brampton). Not ideal for Brampton but it did seem to be a compromise that allowed increased service to two sets of customers out of one(ish) pot of money.

Now, I am no engineer...it was just an idea which i fully expected to get shot down. I thought it would get shot down on technical or cost reasons...I really did.

Nope....it got shot down because in the eyes of GO that train between Streetsville and Brampton represented a "new service" and GO was committed to not introduce new rail service to any market until all current markets/lines had 7 day per week, all day, bi-directional service.

So, since that letter we have seen service introduced to KW, Barrie and Niagara Falls (seasonal)....so forgive me if I don't put a lot of weight behind long standing promises.....they pick and choose which ones to honour.

As for, if the crews are available now why not use them on the Lakeshore......I guess I see what your saying but that kind of logic always just seems to work for Lakeshore. Is there no cost to that? Can we not see the possibility that budgets for crew additions will be used in the future to explain why there is no off peak possibilities elsewhere...ah well, it is what it is and I think I am gonna go have a drink!


EDIT....I just reread that before heading to the bar and I don't want to misrepresent what Mr. McNeil said at that public meeting at Brampton City Hall. What he said is that Brampton could not have full Lakeshore type service until a lot of work was done (all of which will be done by 2015...the scope of what is now needed may have changed - thanks UPE - but at the time he listed things that will all be done in 2015) and that GO would only provide the full service if they could find the money to get that work done. To be fair to him, I got the sense then that he did not think he would ever get that money so it was probably intended to be a promise never fulfilled....but one that was made.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Drum gave the formula for crews....if he is right (usually the case) and my math is good (not as certain on that) the number of crews is 23!

Basically.There's no way the have all the crews now, it takes 2 years at the least to train these people. These guys are going to be working longer and harder, I feel sorry for vegeta.

You don't have to believe the Mayor of Brampton....try believing me (unless you think I am the Mayor of Brampton) I asked and got an answer very similar to what she said (I say very similar because the only thing that GO/Metrolinx disputed with me about what the Mayor said is whether it was ever promised at all....they did not dispute that it is not coming in anything close to the near future)...or ask GO/Metrolinx the same question (i presume you will get the same answer)....there are no plans to go all day 7 days a week (heck, there are no plans to go all day 5 days a week).

If that's the case the metrolinx failed because how do you go to new taxes without showing improvement. But would an increase in trains increase ridership?

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

And which other GO line has the infrastructure ready for such a service increase in 2013?

If the crews are now available (which will be interesting to see ... I guess worse-case scenario is they cancel some runs for a few months) you might as well use them to fulfill a long-standing, and very public, promise (and though some staff may well have been making comments about the Brampton line 25 years ago, there wasn't the very public promises made there).

They are using the same people and doing more deadheads back and forth. No Way new people are ready in 2 months time. As for which GO line can be ready, Barrie, which is owned by GO can have hourly service at least to Bradford as GO owns all of that line, but they get 4 trains a day. Personally I feel we would not have this problem with the Young and US subway if Barrie and Richmond Hill had better service 15 years ago. Stouffville is also all owned by GO can have hourly service with some upgrades to the tracks.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

The Lakeshore west will be extended to Hamilton in 2015 so Hamilton will also get 2tph before Brampton gets one

 

[TOareaFan]

If that's the case the metrolinx failed because how do you go to new taxes without show improvement. But would an increase in trains increase ridership?

It is not just Metrolinx that failed....one time I asked my MPP about it I was told not to believe what the Mayor said (hey, are you my MPP?) when I reminded my representative that I had had conversations with Metrolinx (something that I had already told her) and got the same answers as the Mayor, the communication just stopped.

I think I can guarantee it would increase ridership. How much is the question. What is the logic that says 500k people in Brampton would not want to connect to Toronto as easily and frequently as 180k people in Oakville do? The Lakeshore line gets very strong numbers from smaller populations and lower densities and I think it proves that service breeds ridership (given the right shedule and a bit of time for people to "know").

What I do know is that all of the current services are well used (the orphan 9:40 am train out of Bramalea being the possible excption but that was discussed yesterday). It took less than year for the new 8:19 out of Brampton to grow ridership to very strong levels.....the closest thing to an off peak homeward train is the 6:50 and, again, it is well used....all in the climate where the general feeling/perception is that the service is very limited.

Bus use is very high too....I don't use that as often (tend to drive if I am sure I am gonna miss the 6:50 home....go figure) but 3 times in the last month, I have been left on the platform to wait for an extra bus to pull in because the scheduled bus was full....each of those was after 10 pm and, remember, that bus represents Brampton/Mt. Pleasant/GT....there are other buses for Malton and Bramalea.....had a driver joke a few weeks ago that he was worried about his job because "surely the'll notice a train could come in handy".

I have no reason to think that the current limited service lines would grow their ridership if they had full service...and, as I said upthread, at the margins there are probably more net new riders available than there are on Lakeshore.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I think I can guarantee it would increase ridership. How much is the question. What is the logic that says 500k people in Brampton would not want to connect to Toronto as easily and frequently as 180k people in Oakville do? The Lakeshore line gets very strong numbers from smaller populations and lower densities and I think it proves that service breeds ridership (given the right shedule and a bit of time for people to "know").

What I do know is that all of the current services are well used (the orphan 9:40 am train out of Bramalea being the possible excption but that was discussed yesterday). It took less than year for the new 8:19 out of Brampton to grow ridership to very strong levels.....the closest thing to an off peak homeward train is the 6:50 and, again, it is well used....all in the climate where the general feeling/perception is that the service is very limited.

Bus use is very high too....I don't use that as often (tend to drive if I am sure I am gonna miss the 6:50 home....go figure) but 3 times in the last month, I have been left on the platform to wait for an extra bus to pull in because the scheduled bus was full....each of those was after 10 pm and, remember, that bus represents Brampton/Mt. Pleasant/GT....there are other buses for Malton and Bramalea.....had a driver joke a few weeks ago that he was worried about his job because "surely the'll notice a train could come in handy".

I have no reason to think that the current limited service lines would grow their ridership if they had full service...and, as I said upthread, at the margins there are probably more net new riders available than there are on Lakeshore.

Thing is the midday lakeshore service is not as used as much as it should and that line is getting 30 min service. Also you seperate into West and East, I consider Lakeshore one line like go and daily that is 110,000 riders according to the Star. Can Brampton do 50k daily. I guess metrolinx will have to expand.


BTW why don't you live in the city? I didn't like the train service so I moved to Jane and Weston. Service is more frequent within Toronto, and its 24hrs on the buses.

 

[nfitz]

If "some staff" includes Gary McNeil, he made the promise publicly in a forum at Brampton City Hall set up by then Mayor Robertson in an answer to my question and wrote me several letters in response to letters I sent him.

25 years ago?!?

So, since that letter we have seen service introduced to KW, Barrie and Niagara Falls (seasonal)....so forgive me if I don't put a lot of weight behind long standing promises.....they pick and choose which ones to honour.

To be fair, GO isn't behind any of those. That's political pressure.

I guess I see what your saying but that kind of logic always just seems to work for Lakeshore.

Always?? As far as I can tell, for Lakeshore between Pickering and Oakville, this is the first increase in off-peak service (heck, it's virtually the first schedule change) since September 1967. It's almost a once-in-a-lifetime change.

This is major, and this is big. I'm amazed that there is complaining. Particularly after 10-years of trumpeting and forewarning. I'll be equally thrilled when other lines go to all-day service (partially because then they may actually be of use to me, for more than just a one-way trip in PM Peak, and having to figure out another way to get home).

 

[TOareaFan]

Thing is the midday lakeshore service is not as used as much as it should and that line is getting 30 min service. Also you seperate into West and East, I consider Lakeshore one line like go and daily that is 110,000 riders according to the Star. Can Brampton do 50k daily. I guess metrolinx will have to expand.


BTW why don't you live in the city? I didn't like the train service so I moved to Jane and Weston. Service is more frequent within Toronto, and its 24hrs on the buses.

I don't live in the city because I grew up in place that is home and my family is there and my wife works in Peel...that question seems to be creeping into the "people should live where they work" area and that is a notion that is not as easy as it is theory.

 

[TOareaFan]

25 years ago?!?

Would have to dig through some dusty boxes to get the date....I would guess that meeting would have been +/- 20 years ago but you are testing my memory....does the timing of him being at that meeting have some relevance? or just curious?

To be fair, GO isn't behind any of those. That's political pressure.

Whatever the reason, what value do their promises have?

Always?? As far as I can tell, for Lakeshore between Pickering and Oakville, this is the first increase in off-peak service (heck, it's virtually the first schedule change) since September 1967. It's almost a once-in-a-lifetime change.

First change in off peak service...compared to everyone else waiting for off peak service at all.

This is major, and this is big. I'm amazed that there is complaining. Particularly after 10-years of trumpeting and forewarning. I'll be equally thrilled when other lines go to all-day service (partially because then they may actually be of use to me, for more than just a one-way trip in PM Peak, and having to figure out another way to get home).

I am surprised that you are surprised. Everyone pays into GO through their taxes. So the juxtaposition of articles saying "X" won't get off peak service for 15 - 20 years and articles saying "Y" will have its offpeak service doubled has got to get all the "X"s raising spokian eyebrows....no?

In the current environment this is gonna become an even bigger issue. How do you impose revenue tools on the entire region when the benefits will not be visisble in a balanced manner in a similar time frame.

How do you tell the Miltonite to pay his share of the revenue tools but for the first X years that money will pay for the DRL and the subway to Richmond Hill....it just will not be supported by the public. This is what is happening here (although with general tax revenue).....we are doubling Lakeshore off peak service and building parking garages to support that service level and telling people in Milton to wait 20 years.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

25 years ago?!?

Maybe it was part of the originals expansion plan?

To be fair, GO isn't behind any of those. That's political pressure.

Limited service. As an aside nfitz Niagara Falls/St Catharines will low ridership even in 2031.

Always?? As far as I can tell, for Lakeshore between Pickering and Oakville, this is the first increase in off-peak service (heck, it's virtually the first schedule change) since September 1967. It's almost a once-in-a-lifetime change.

This is major, and this is big. I'm amazed that there is complaining. Particularly after 10-years of trumpeting and forewarning. I'll be equally thrilled when other lines go to all-day service (partially because then they may actually be of use to me, for more than just a one-way trip in PM Peak, and having to figure out another way to get home).

I agree. Plus this route makes money. But the thing is other than Milton, GO owns these lines, they can't do something more with those lines?

I don't live in the city because I grew up in place that is home and my family is there and my wife works in Peel...that question seems to be creeping into the "people should live where they work" area and that is a notion that is not as easy as it is theory.

For me it was, I don't care for my family that much so I guess we are different. Right now you are commuting and your wife is commuting much less, what if it was the reverse?

 

[TOareaFan]

^why the sudden interest in the social structure of my family?

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Whatever the reason, what value do their promises have?



First change in off peak service...compared to everyone else waiting for off peak service at all.



I am surprised that you are surprised. Everyone pays into GO through their taxes. So the juxtaposition of articles saying "X" won't get off peak service for 15 - 20 years and articles saying "Y" will have its offpeak service doubled has got to get all the "X"s raising spokian eyebrows....no?

In the current environment this is gonna become an even bigger issue. How do you impose revenue tools on the entire region when the benefits will not be visisble in a balanced manner in a similar time frame.

How do you tell the Miltonite to pay his share of the revenue tools but for the first X years that money will pay for the DRL and the subway to Richmond Hill....it just will not be supported by the public. This is what is happening here (although with general tax revenue).....we are doubling Lakeshore off peak service and building parking garages to support that service level and telling people in Milton to wait 20 years.

Remember Milton was nothing until 10years ago. Brampton fine, and Mississauga had lakeshore. I think the problem is GO caters to the richer communities along lakeshore and for some reason feels the other lines current ridership don't justify that? I disagree though.