[crs1026]

I had no idea I had walked into such a hornet's nest. I simply didn't understand why something for which there was an order had not appeared. Like Flexity Outlooks.

Hornets nest? Real hornets buzz and fly around and sting. Queens Park just makes promises and goes back to sleep.

I'm not sure that ML actually needs new locomotives that urgently. The MP40's are pretty reliable. When the double tracking opens on the Barrie and Stouffville lines, we may see some new turnback schedules that will improve trainset utilization at the peak.

That might make do long enough to bridge to electrification, *if* ML is actually progressing electrification at a reasonable pace. That's a big "if".

- Paul

 

[smallspy]

What happened to GO’s MP54 locomotives? Not a peep in a year.

The first one is nearing completion. As far as I know it's still scheduled to be delivered to GO in October.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.

 

[DonValleyRainbow]

It is possible that an announcement is forthcoming before the 2018 election, hopefully enough infrastructure will eventually be complete to enable the Niagara Summer Seasonal GO Trains to stop at West Harbour -- by Victoria Day 2018 (see www.raisethehammer.org/article/2720 ...) -- that would put "more bums in the seats" of those trains and benefit future Niagara GO train expansion.

Crossposting to the service thread, because here's my thinking. The 16 Toronto-Hamilton Express runs every 20 minutes on the weekend, and can pack double decker buses full. I wonder if the 16 could be replaced by express GO trains to Hamilton, which then continue into Niagara. Assuming that 3 buses in a row are at capacity (240 people), it offsets the fuel, while personnel costs stay the same (and could be viewed as 'offset' when bundled with the fact that they're serving Niagara). Furthermore, travel time should be around 45 minutes, faster than the bus and less risk of getting caught with a traffic delay (the remaining risk being a crossover with a CN train, which I presume would be low).

The only downsides I can see is that a) it's to West Harbour, and would require a connection to downtown if you're going elsewhere in the city, and b) it will eliminate the convenience for those going to the west end around McMaster (but this could be achieved with an Aldershot bus connecting to regular Lakeshore West service).

 

[TOareaFan]

Crossposting to the service thread, because here's my thinking. The 16 Toronto-Hamilton Express runs every 20 minutes on the weekend, and can pack double decker buses full. I wonder if the 16 could be replaced by express GO trains to Hamilton, which then continue into Niagara. Assuming that 3 buses in a row are at capacity (240 people), it offsets the fuel, while personnel costs stay the same (and could be viewed as 'offset' when bundled with the fact that they're serving Niagara). Furthermore, travel time should be around 45 minutes, faster than the bus and less risk of getting caught with a traffic delay (the remaining risk being a crossover with a CN train, which I presume would be low).

The only downsides I can see is that a) it's to West Harbour, and would require a connection to downtown if you're going elsewhere in the city, and b) it will eliminate the convenience for those going to the west end around McMaster (but this could be achieved with an Aldershot bus connecting to regular Lakeshore West service).

Hasn't there been some evidence that cancelling frequent (say 1/2 hourly) buses with less frequent (say hourly) trains has caused some passenger disrpution....in other words, how many of the 240 now have a 40 minute wait for a train rather than an immediate bus, does the faster train travel make up for that longer wait and if it doesn't how many of the 240 do you lose and and how many of them open up threads on UT saying "bring back the buses"?

 

[ShonTron]

I could live with a replacement of a half-hourly bus with an hourly train, but I could not live with the replacement of a half-hourly bus with an hourly train that still requires a transfer somewhere like Unionville or Bramalea that adds 15-30 minutes to the trip. That's what would happen for many people if you replace the Route 16 bus with an hourly train to West Harbour.

 

[mdrejhon]

In Metrolinx 2041, they mentioned 15-min RER extension to Hamilton, Ontario after ~2025. (I imagine, possibly as early as 2031).

I imagine they're aiming for the downtown.

That would mitigate the theoretical downgrade (if they planned to do a "Stoufville line" style move of discontining the frequent Hamilton 16 to replace it with an infrequent hourly train) and from my 47-minute scorchingly fast Pan Am Express GO Train ride between Toronto and West Harbour in 2015 -- it's at least technologically possible to replace the convenience of the Hamilton 16 Express.

Ultimately, by 2041 -- when it's warranted -- the Lakeshore extension could alternate every other train (in true Paris RER-style fashion!) between West Harbour and Downtown -- both stations getting all day. Hourly or 30-minute service for both. Basically, allday electric service to the U.S. border (if Empire Corridor is ever electrified by 2041+) and dual-mode service to Hamilton downtown (by diesel or hydrogen dual-mode).

In the near interim, what station gets hourly is still practically up in the air at the moment.

I wrote about this in my large Major Hamilton GO Train Construction article for RaiseTheHammer -- where I also broke out the first exclusive photography of the Lewis Railyard (in Grimsby) under construction.

The official word is downtown. But look closely: Read between the lines. As early as 2017, Metrolinx was reportedly thinking of switching to West Harbour for the all-day service:

This is a decision that is alas, unfortunately a fast-moving target, caused by CN negotiations, CP negotiations, Hamilton LRT route changes, construction scheduling opportunities, HSR rerouting to station, politics, and many other factors.

Ultimately, both stations ARE important concurrently for very different reasons, and both will continue to get service. Neither station will be shut down since one is downtown, and the other is a strategic station on Niagara service and long-term-future (Note: Amtrak/VIA to USA -- international trains pass West Harbour, and USA repeatedly talks about electrification/HSR on the Empire Corridor which may happen later this century). So because both stations are so strategically important to continue to exist one way or another -- I am seeing a likely scenario of both stations getting all-day service within one human generation. However, right now, the question is which gets how much service, and which gets all-day service first. Playing "analyst" on this, produces a very cloudy crystal ball at the moment that will only become clearer in the years to come, but the door is open on both stations.

Currently, playing "analyst of Hamilton GO service", I currently nail Downtown GO as the 50%-50% candidate to get all day service, and weekday all-day service probably may not happen till 2026. This is only an analyst's opinion, and not indicative of what GO/Metrolinx will do. I'm rooting for them nontheless, even as fellow Hamiltonian piranhas are biting on "why is it taking so long for the low lying apples" questions.

That said, easiest first step to more trains is probably the low-lying apple: Stopping the Niagara summer seasonal GO train in Hamilton to "put more bums in seats". But this, even is a bit complex and taking a few years to solve. Obviously, is all complicated by CN negotiations, construction phasing, merging small work into large contracts, delicate politics, and horrendous inter-agency work complexity of a 100 meter segment.

My current Hamilton All-Day 2-way GO predictions

• Niagara summer seasonal stops at West Harbour in either 2018 or 2019
  This would be summer weekend semi-all-day equivalent. There is currently a 50%-50% chance that the 2018 Niagara Summer Seasonal is not going to stop in Hamilton yet. Some of my actions right now is some awareness-raising to hopefully push that low-lying apple forward as an Election 2018 Issue. Allowing the seasonal to also become a Toronto-Hamilton-Niagara 2-way interurban.
  -
• Hamilton Hourly Weekday/Evening trains: Pick Either Option A or B
  (A) Weekday All-Day Hourly Scenario A in West Harbour GO: 2021
  This is the scenario where all stakeholders succeed on the CN side, and if Hamilton City Hall agrees to expand HSR service to the West Harbour GO station (e.g. A-Line/shuttle bus enhancements). Metrolinx decides to activate all-day 2-way Hamilton trains at West Harbour as part of the Niagara GO expansion. Currently low-traffic use of West Harbour ('duh' factor: only 2 trains a day, both that depart before I wake up) -- is a probable cause for concern to attempting it sooner than 2021, so getting the Niagara seasonal to stop at WH in 2018/2019 could help the "bums-in-seats" factor.
  (B) Weekday All-Day Hourly Scenario B at Downtown/Hunter GO: 2026
  During election 2018 or 2022, Metrolinx instead funds extra track from Bayview to the entrance of the tunnel. The trench before the tunnel entrance, has plenty of room already. This is thanks to early 1990s construction (before the Bob Rae / cuts era) that protected for future all-day service. Tunnel may not need to be expanded for hourly, as long as there's extra track to the entrance, with plenty of CP switching opportunities before/after GO trains, to make CP scheduling flexible for the infrequent (but kilometer-plus-long) freight trains, without significantly interrupting hourly GO trains.
  -
  
• Hamilton Weekday All-Day 15-min Expansion: ~2035
  This is already mentioned as a "Big Move Next Step" in the new Metrolinx 2041 document, with a fuzzy timeline of "After 2025". Assuming Burlington electrification does not get cancelled, the first Hamilton election during electric construction (~2022 or 2026) will likely have politicians promising/demanding for electrification "the rest of the way". Announcement to begin construction by 2031, with completion by 2035.
  -
  
• Both Hamilton stations get true all-day service: ~2035-2041
  Hourly on one, 15-min on the other. Or 30-min on both using Paris-RER-style "every other train goes left vs right at Bayview" arrangement commonly done in other cities. Wildcard is freight ownership. One leg could be electrified, and the other leg will require dual-mode trains.

I am potentially off-base, and open to be surprised at an acceleration, but these are currently my revised predictions for Hamilton all-day 2-way GO trains, based on political/LRT/funding/CN/CP/etc pressures that is not likely to coincide quickly enough to accelerate the year numbers above.

Everything beyond Aldershot (And even Aldershot itself) is incredibly complicated by freight corridor ownership making it hard to inexpensively run all-day trains beyond. I anticipate there are likely politics opportunities here. Incrementals (more trains, a few midday trains, etc), will almost definitely happen before 2021. But true hourly all-day 2-way appears to now have become a "won't happen till the 2020s" event.

What the Hamilton public can do: There is currently an opportunity for the public & politicians to tip the fence of 2018-vs-2019 for the pre-existing Niagara trains to stop in Hamilton. Currently it feels 50-50, and early pressure can push a command chain to get the increasingly-few pre-requisites finished by Victoria's Day 2018. Currently, there is photographed CN construction now working towards this, but it's getting close to winter. This puts the 2018 Niagara Season at risk of not stopping in Hamilton. Contact people accordingly (politicians, agencies, even CN/city, etc).

This is my "analysis".

 

[mdrejhon]

It appears my popular 8-tweet thread about Hamilton West Harbour (lots of likes/retweets) got attention by two local politicians & the Hamilton Chamber of Commerce.

 

[DonValleyRainbow]

Hasn't there been some evidence that cancelling frequent (say 1/2 hourly) buses with less frequent (say hourly) trains has caused some passenger disrpution....in other words, how many of the 240 now have a 40 minute wait for a train rather than an immediate bus, does the faster train travel make up for that longer wait and if it doesn't how many of the 240 do you lose and and how many of them open up threads on UT saying "bring back the buses"?

I could live with a replacement of a half-hourly bus with an hourly train, but I could not live with the replacement of a half-hourly bus with an hourly train that still requires a transfer somewhere like Unionville or Bramalea that adds 15-30 minutes to the trip. That's what would happen for many people if you replace the Route 16 bus with an hourly train to West Harbour.

Again, let's not forget what we're talking about here. This is not as comparable to what happened along Stouffville.

The 16 goes express from Union, and then makes a bunch of local dropoffs (green squares) along Main St. Leaving Hamilton GO, it makes a bunch of local pickups (green diamonds) and then goes express to Union. If the 16 was eliminated, this type of bus service would not be eliminated because the 18 (connector from Aldershot) provides the same service. It would take an extra half hour (from Dundurn) to use the 18 plus Lakeshore West, but you still have half-hour buses.

Alternatively, you can take local transit (HSR) to West Harbour. From Google directions, you're looking at 20-25 minutes (and that's sh*t because you're either taking 2 buses or one with lots of walking; no A-Line service). Assuming an express trip took 47 minutes as per @mdrejhon above (I'll say 45 because I think they could do better with the additional trackwork) and 10 minutes transfer time, and we're looking at 75-80 minutes. So an extra 20-25 minutes from taking the 16, but again, based on crap HSR service and potentially slow GO speed.

In conclusion:

• you're probably looking at a longer trip, but there's room to optimize
• Hamilton has plenty of options; people won't lose frequency
• GO saves operational costs
• You could go to Niagara!

 

[mdrejhon]

That could work.

That said, they probably will need to keep at least an hourly 16 Express (between the trains). My assessment is that 16 Express is too important to cancel even when there's hourly trains.

The only way 16 Express will go away without a downgrade feel, is if:

1--> Downtown GO Station gets fast 15-minute RER (mentioned in Metrolinx 2041)
2--> B-Line LRT is constructed as planned (2024)
3--> There's a Dundurn Mobility Hub, for quick transfer between RER and LRT (stand-in for the multi-stop of Hamilton 16 Express).

If all the above happens (Frequent 15-min RER + Frequent LRT) then there is enough "upgradefeel" along all the existing 16 Express stops -- in order to discontinue the Hamilton 16 Express. But only if all 1-2-3 is met.

Intermodal RER+LRT in a future Dundurn Mall overhaul would allow fast and good trip-flow patterns, Toronto-McMasterU, and McMasterU-HamiltonDT, and Toronto-HamiltonDT (both RER and LRT options)

 

[DonValleyRainbow]

That could work.

That said, they probably will need to keep at least an hourly 16 Express (between the trains). My assessment is that 16 Express is too important to cancel even when there's hourly trains.

The only way 16 Express will go away without a downgrade feel, is if:

1--> Downtown GO Station gets fast 15-minute RER (mentioned in Metrolinx 2041)
2--> B-Line LRT is constructed as planned (2024)
3--> There's a Dundurn Mobility Hub, for quick transfer between RER and LRT (stand-in for the multi-stop of Hamilton 16 Express).

View attachment 123079

If all the above happens (Frequent 15-min RER + Frequent LRT) then there is enough "upgradefeel" along all the existing 16 Express stops -- in order to discontinue the Hamilton 16 Express. But only if all 1-2-3 is met.

Intermodal RER+LRT in a future Dundurn Mall overhaul would allow fast and good trip-flow patterns, Toronto-McMasterU, and McMasterU-HamiltonDT, and Toronto-HamiltonDT (both RER and LRT options)

#1 and #3 will never happen (IMO). The route to Hamilton GO is great in that it's a GO station downtown, but longer-term, traffic will increase along the CN lines (West Harbour) as they will have two tracks and limited freight conflicts, plus it is the corridor into Niagara. B-Line will be a welcome improvement though.

 

[crs1026]

My solution (a bit pie in the sky, but so what?) would be 15-minute electric service from Hunter Street interleaved with 30 minute diesel Niagara service. That might seem like overkill, but the Hunter street service would be all stops (on the premise that RER is feeding the bus routes, and Hunter Street is a good place for the bus hub). It would be the 'universal' service in the sense that by serving all stops it meets all needs (albeit with longer trip time). This service would have a 'transit' flavour.

The Niagara service would be express, stopping after West Harbour only at Aldershot and possibly Port Credit. Its value proposition would be relief of longer distance commuting on QEW. The express timing would be necessary to attract the ridership from Stoney Creek and beyond. It could be diesel powered (I'm not jumping on the Hydrogen bandwagon quite yet.... R100 style dirigibles flying directly across the lake have more science behind them than hydrogen, so far). Riders coming off the buses or via Hunter could transfer to the express at Aldershot if time is that important to them, and Downtown Hamilton riders could get to West Harbour as easily as Hunter St anyways. On that route, 30 minute service would suffice. It would have a flavour that is more regional or long distance than RER, but less so than VIA/Amtrak.

For this to work, there would have to be four tracks all the way from Aldershot to Union. That's a lot of investment, not yet on the spending plan. My argument would be, check out the congestion today on QEW and extrapolate.

- Paul

 

[dowlingm]

My solution (a bit pie in the sky, but so what?) would be 15-minute electric service from Hunter Street

How are you going to get CN to allow electric wire west of Burlington, and CP to allow it into Hunter Street?

(also - 15 minute anything into Hunter Street)

 

[crs1026]

How are you going to get CN to allow electric wire west of Burlington, and CP to allow it into Hunter Street?

(also - 15 minute anything into Hunter Street)

Money.

ie - capital spending, partly. If that can't solve the problem directly, and Aldershot were to remain the absolute limit of electrification, then leave the Hunter St service as it is today - a few rush hour trains - and put all the investment into some more higher order transit from West Harbour. But yeah, I'm being incredibly optimistic that the railways can be persuaded.

- Paul

 

[DonValleyRainbow]

How are you going to get CN to allow electric wire west of Burlington, and CP to allow it into Hunter Street?

(also - 15 minute anything into Hunter Street)

Overhead catenary to Hunter St? Not going to happen, tunnel is too small.

As for west of Burlington, I believe Metrolinx will own the new track it's installing south of Bayview Junction to West Harbour, leaving just the stretch inbetween. To which I say, CN has already given them the 7.4 m clearance requirement, and they need to get over themselves and let Metrolinx do it. And if they still refuse, TC can step in upon Mx's request.

Unfortunately, Mx lacks courage when push comes to shove in this arena; look how long it took to expropriate the Dundas West-Bloor connection.

 

[mdrejhon]

Unfortunately, Mx lacks courage when push comes to shove in this arena; look how long it took to expropriate the Dundas West-Bloor connection.

Long, but only 2006-long, rather than 1970s-long -- Metrolinx was born in 2006. At least they're more successfully bold than their predecessor. I think.

How are you going to get CN to allow electric wire west of Burlington, and CP to allow it into Hunter Street?
(also - 15 minute anything into Hunter Street)

Theoretical Scenarios:
- Only Metrolinx extra track electrified
- Dual mode trains, or
- Small battery to handle small catenary gaps (crossover past freight track, tunnel), or
- Trains long enough to "touch" catenary on both ends of a ladder-switch across catenary-free freight tracks
- 2030s/2040s change of business at CN/CP forced by electrification demands all over NA

Probably a combination of two or three of the above.

But yes, Metrolinx may send electrification through West Harbour instead, especially once an A-Line is deployed for good intermodal transit. And especially if USA (in the 2030/2040s) electrifies the Empire Corridor -- then Acela Expresses (and similar semi-highspeeds) can come all the way to Toronto Union.