Talk about a cheap out, that passing track for Stouffville is in the wrong place. Basically at current track speeds its impossible for two trains to meet there in order to run and hourly service on the line.
Meaning, the service won't be hourly.
Unless… they allocate 3 trains to the line.
Then there would be 2 meeting points and that location (mile 51-52) would be ideal for one, while the other would be Scarborough on the multi-track Kingston sub.
It'll be interesting to see what happens. If I hear anything about frequencies (before any official announcement) I'll drop a line.
The line through Welland goes to Fort Erie, so it would have had to crawl through industrial spur lines to get back to the main to Niagara Falls, if a connection even exists.
The tracks still exist all the way into Niagara stopping less than a 1/4 mile from the falls and they are main lines.
Though the speeds aren't that fast going along the 2 subdivisions a train would have to take to get there via the CP route.
Hamilton sub (44 miles, avg speed 38.5 = 68:30)
Montrose sub (10.7 miles, avg speed 40mph = 16:00).
The total travel time would be appox. 84:30
Add a couple minutes to that for a likely stop at Welland and the train would take almost exactly the same amount of time as the current Niagara GO train from where the 2 routes diverge (at Hamilton Jct.).
Unfortunately, the CP Hamilton sub is a busy freight line and its only single track with sidings. CP won't allow GO train exclusive use of the main line while diverting their freights into sidings for the obvious reasons.
Any GO train that encounters a freight on the line would have to enter the siding (which aren't located very close together) and stop & wait for that freight train to pass (the freight train could be miles away still - at one point sidings are 17 miles apart!). That would lead to a delay that could be just as long as waiting for a boat to pass at the Welland. Also this could happen several times along the line, theres no way to know.
CP is demanding that GO double track the line before they'll allow them to use it.
GO might be able to make a compromise and just build a few more sidings i.e. "passing tracks" so that the wait for freights wouldn't be as long.
Thought they'd still make better time along the CN route except for when a boat is coming.
But then again the station would be only a 1/4 mile away instead of being 2 miles away.
GO could also build (and I believe have considered) a new taller bridge over the cannel on the CN trackage which would eliminate any delays on the CN line.
But that would cost considerably more than installing more sidings on the CP run (But not as much as 2 tracking the CP line).
Guess it just depends on how much money their willing to spend and that will depend on how much of a demand there is for the service.