[reaperexpress]

So let's say the UPX could run 10 car trains, the point is it wouldn't make any difference. People aren't taking it because it's too expensive.

This is what RER is going to be except it's not electrified but due to having relatively few stops, that doesn't make much difference in time. You honestly mean to tell me that there are only a couple thousand people a day heading from Bloor West and Weston to downtown? For people coming from Weston and those on the Bloor Line west of Dundas West the UPX is infinitely faster and more comfortable than the bus/subway so why aren't they taking the UPX?

I mean that as a serious question. Why are so few people in those areas taking the UPX if the service is faster and more comfortable than the subway/bus if not for the large difference in price, I really want to know what else it could be. Also if Torontonians aren't taking the UPX RER line now than what makes you think they will when the other lines open?

As others have mentioned, your comments are totally inconsistent with the current ridership vs capacity status of UP Express. The line is operated with a mix of 2- and 3-car train sets, because they needed to increase the spare ratio and therefore split some formerly 3-car trains into a larger number of 2-car trains. Which means that many UP Express trips experience overcrowding due to only having 2 cars rather than 3. Lowering the fares would therefore have limited effect because new riders would be partially offset by existing riders being crowded out. Which would actually worsen the cost-recovery ratio that you're complaining about.

Before reducing fares to attract new ridership, the capacity would need to be increased to accommodate said ridership. The obvious solution would be to expand the fleet to entirely 3-car trains, but the challenge there is the relatively short-term plans to switch to electric operation, which makes that a bit of a poor investment.

Some capacity comparisons:
2-car UP Express: 158 seated (318 crush)
3-car UP Express: 237 seated (477 crush)
8-car RTM MultiLevel: 1051 seated (~2000 crush)
10-car GO Transit: 1420 seated (~2800 crush)
12-car GO Transit: 1704 seated (~3300 crush)

As of this month, there is a 50% discount on TTC fares for riders connecting to GO. Since GO fares are accepted aboard UP Express between Weston and Union, it will become much more affordable to take the service within Toronto.

For example, until 2018, the tradeoff for a trip from Dixon Road (in northern Etobicoke) to Union would have been:
$3.00 on TTC vs $8.02 on TTC+UP

But now it's:
$3.00 on TTC vs $6.52 on TTC+UP

This will only further increase ridership and exacerbate the overcrowding.

The planned direct connection at Dundas West station will attract new ridership without reducing fares by drastically reducing transfer times from Line 2. Then when Line 5 opens, hopefully Weston Station will be replaced (not supplemented) by Mount Dennis, so the line can receive increased ridership from the middle of the route without compromising the ridership from the ends.

And can we also step back and recognize that the line has seen a 400% increase in ridership in 2 years, and the numbers continue to climb steadily. When you were complaining about this 12 months ago, the ridership was 9,000 per day, and now it is 11,000 per day even though the service is exactly the same and the fares actually increased.

 

[torontocolin]

If you're going from Dundas West to Bloor GO, by the time you get up the stairs, across the street, down the street, and up the set of stairs inside Bloor GO, you'd have been at Ossington or Christie by then, so a good chunk of your time savings is shot.

Not to mention that if your end goal is north of Union, the subway probably gets you closer, which matters for time savings. And there's a risk that you're waiting as much as 15 minutes at Bloor for the UPX, and if it's full, or there's a problem on the line, you're probably already into negative time savings.

 

[crs1026]

So let's say the UPX could run 10 car trains, the point is it wouldn't make any difference. People aren't taking it because it's too expensive.

This is what RER is going to be except it's not electrified but due to having relatively few stops, that doesn't make much difference in time. You honestly mean to tell me that there are only a couple thousand people a day heading from Bloor West and Weston to downtown? For people coming from Weston and those on the Bloor Line west of Dundas West the UPX is infinitely faster and more comfortable than the bus/subway so why aren't they taking the UPX?

Hmmm. My wife and I regularly use UP to get to Bloor and then transfer to the subway. Does it cost more? Certainly. But after seeing a show or a ball game, what's another ten dollars? Still cheaper and faster overall than a cab ride and much, much nicer than descending into the subway station and standing in a crowd for a much slower plod up to St George and onwards.

I don't do it all the time, but it's always the alternative that's at the front of my brain. Judging from the number of Leafs and Jays jerseys I see, we aren't alone. It may not be the default mode of choice for that route, but it skims off enough riders from the subway to fill seats that would otherwise be empty.

It gets back to - is UP a good way to deliver that service? Hell, no. UP should be focussing on airport bound travellers. But if ML can't deliver on RER on this route - and it has been 2.5 years since GTS was declared "finished" - no harm in using it for this purpose until that can happen.

- Paul

 

[Megaton327]

Issues on the Barrie Line today:
Union 12:40 - Aurora 13:29 cancelled at Maple due to medical emergency
Aurora 13:41 - Union 14:33 started from Maple due to medical emergency
Union 13:40 - Aurora 14:29 cancelled at Maple due to freight train traffic
Aurora 14:41 - Union 15:33 started from Maple due to freight train traffic

Not the first freight train delays recently:
Jan 4 Union 11:40 - Aurora 12:29 cancelled at Rutherford due to freight train traffic
Jan 4 Aurora 12:41 - Union 13:33 started from Rutherford due to freight train traffic
Jan 4 Union 12:40 - Aurora 13:29 cancelled at Rutherford due to freight train traffic
Jan 4 Aurora 13:41 - Union 14:33 started from Rutherford due to freight train traffic

That's 6 trips shortened to Rutherford/Maple in less than a week of AD2W weekday service.

What freight train traffic runs between Rutherford/Maple and Aurora GO so frequently? Doesn't GO own these tracks, and haven't they owned them for many years now? Can't they just tell the freight trains they have to wait until GO's trains are clear? Did GO not know about any of these freight trains before creating these new schedules (again, don't they own the line)?

Not an auspicious start to AD2W service. I was planning on taking the 14:41 south today but had to drive downtown instead. I'm now concerned that I can't rely on GO's service to get me where I need to go--the rush hour trains are usually reliable, but recently there are more and more delays and outright cancellations.

 

[crs1026]

Wow - I’m counting myself lucky to have made the southbound 13:04 train at Rutherford today. My prrference was to take a later train, good thing I didn’t.

I did manage to capture a shot of today’s culprit heading north at Rutherford about 12:30. My understanding is that it only runs 2-3 days per week north of Snider, but it had 5 cars for three separate customers today. That’s a fair bit of track occupancy as none of those customers have enough siding that the train can clear the mainline to do its work.

One does wonder why ML has not insisted that the freight run in the wee hours.

On the plus side, ridership on the train today was encouraging.

- Paul

 

[rbt]

What freight train traffic runs between Rutherford/Maple and Aurora GO so frequently? Doesn't GO own these tracks, and haven't they owned them for many years now? Can't they just tell the freight trains they have to wait until GO's trains are clear? Did GO not know about any of these freight trains before creating these new schedules (again, don't they own the line)?

Without knowing any of the details, I'd speculate their timeslot for crossing the CN track at Steeles was set in such a way they needed to turnback early; as you're right that GO should have enough control over the Barrie line track to prevent that type of issue there.

 

[Allandale25]

Wow - I’m counting myself lucky to have made the southbound 13:04 train at Rutherford today. My prrference was to take a later train, good thing I didn’t.

Great catch Paul. I'm curious where the three customers are located. I think one of them is in Bradford? Happy to check Google Maps later to see if I can spot and locate them, just out of curiosity.

 

[crs1026]

PPS. After a moment's reflection I thought through what this train had to do to complete its work north of Snider. The two loads on the rear of the train were lumber, no doubt headed for a lumber yard north of King City.

The problem for the freight - the spur to the lumberyard runs northwards off the mainline. So, to deliver these loads, the train has to pull into the siding at Teston, drop the cars....then the locomotives have to come out the north end of the siding at Kirby, back down the main line to the south end, enter the siding and grab the two loads of lumber, pull back southwards onto the main line, and then run with the cars leading northwards to King City. Then, on reaching the lumber yard they have to pull out the empty cars from the last delivery, drop them on the mainline north of the spur, then go back into the spur to spot the inbound loads. Then, the engines will have to come out to the mainline, reverse, grab the empties, and run back south to Kirby to grab the rest of their train.

Backing northwards along the main line (with the conductor hanging onto the outside of the loads) must be done at reduced speed. And all those moves take time. Pretty hard to accomplish this with hourly GO trains running in each direction.

- Paul

 

[jcam]

The notion that "no one" is taking the UP from stations inside Toronto to Union is what is wrong with this discussion.

As has been noted numerous times before (and, seemingly, ignored each time)......virtually no one is getting on or off GO trains at Weston anymore. What used to be a fairly busy station in the corridor has seen all of the passengers move over to the UP platform.....I have no idea (because I am on the GO train) if more people are riding in from Weston than before...but "all" of the people who were previously commuting by GO are now doing so on UP (from Weston that is).

I can definitively say that there are many more faces on the UP platforms for my commutes than there were on the GO platform. There also used to be space in the GO lots, and there aren't when UPX dropped their fares...they even added reserved spots to the secondary lot, which didn't originally have them.

 

[crs1026]

Great catch Paul. I'm curious where the three customers are located. I think one of them is in Bradford? Happy to check Google Maps later to see if I can spot and locate them, just out of curiosity.

The lumber yard is the only customer that I can be truly sure of. Besides the two lumber loads, there were two covered hoppers (which might have come out of the plant at Snider) and one tank car (perhaps from the tank farm further south). When I went by on the GO train, the tank farm looked like it hadn't been switched today (snow on the rails).

- Paul

 

[Neutrino]

Leaving YorkU today shortly after 6, I saw the shuttle bus taking students to the GO station to connect with the 6:27 train. There were about 10 people in the bus.

 

[ssiguy2]

The fact that ridership has increased since they dropped the price proves my point...........there is huge latent demand for the service but the price was simply too high. Now they are dropping the price for the transfer between UPX/GO and the TTC which is a great idea and will further increase ridership although why it doesn't pertain to a Metropass is anyone's guess. People are VERY price sensitive when it comes to transit. Even a 25 cent increase in transit fares usually always results in stagnant/lower ridership temporarily which is why transit systems don't like to raise fares.

The latest move is a good one and hopefully it will lead to a 100% GO/TTC deduction but that will also only be a stop-gap measure. If RER only manages to get another 100,000 passengers a day within 15 years it will have been the biggest waste of $13 billion known to man and make the Scarborough subway look good which is no easy task.

My point is that I think RER is a great idea and is a real game changer for Toronto but it's success will come down to how they price it because huge frequencies don't mean much if you still can't afford to take advantage of it.

 

[Neutrino]

On the plus side, ridership on the train today was encouraging.

Can you give more details please?

 

[Leo_Chan]

The fact that ridership has increased since they dropped the price proves my point...........there is huge latent demand for the service but the price was simply too high. Now they are dropping the price for the transfer between UPX/GO and the TTC which is a great idea and will further increase ridership although why it doesn't pertain to a Metropass is anyone's guess. People are VERY price sensitive when it comes to transit. Even a 25 cent increase in transit fares usually always results in stagnant/lower ridership temporarily which is why transit systems don't like to raise fares.

The latest move is a good one and hopefully it will lead to a 100% GO/TTC deduction but that will also only be a stop-gap measure. If RER only manages to get another 100,000 passengers a day within 15 years it will have been the biggest waste of $13 billion known to man and make the Scarborough subway look good which is no easy task.

My point is that I think RER is a great idea and is a real game changer for Toronto but it's success will come down to how they price it because huge frequencies don't mean much if you still can't afford to take advantage of it.

I don’t know how metropass discounts would work with Presto. Since you pay for the whole metropass up front, then discounts will have to be made to the GO trip. So then the Province/Metrolinx is subsidizing their own service, rather than returning money to the TTC.

I’m not sure how this works with other transit systems, but this is how I see it for the TTC.

 

[Megaton327]

I don’t know how metropass discounts would work with Presto. Since you pay for the whole metropass up front, then discounts will have to be made to the GO trip. So then the Province/Metrolinx is subsidizing their own service, rather than returning money to the TTC.

I’m not sure how this works with other transit systems, but this is how I see it for the TTC.

Isn't returning the money to the TTC identical, for all intents and purposes, to subsidizing their own service?

And how is it different from when you transfer from TTC to GO? When you do that, you pay $3.00 when you tap on TTC then your GO fare is subsidized by $1.50 off whatever it would have been. So that could continue exactly the same with metropasses. If nothing else, they could just give you the TTC>GO discount, not GO>TTC, but even GO>TTC the only change that needs to be made is reconciling it on the back-end at the end of the day, or when you tap on TTC the fare is -$1.50 (a refund of $1.50) and Metrolinx pays the TTC the exact same $1.50 as always, simply making the fare $0.